nullagentTomorrow is going to be an epic stock crash.
Trump's tariffs have been placed on every country in the world except Russia and North Korea.
The stock market dropped by like $2T in the first 2 minutes of Trump's speech.
Welp sure enough, looking over my stock watch list the smallest stock drop is 4% down, the largest drops I'm seeing around 9%+ down.
They got stalwarts of the stock market doing cryptocurrency sized moves out here. I don't see any well known company showing gains today.
Lots of falling knives out there. The markets are probably going to take a few days to find the bottom as international markets wake up and also sell off tomorrow.
Lordy, there's a luxury furniture company who manufactures in China, their stock is down 40%. The CEO was on a public call when he got the news 🥴
The Trump tariffs are 34% on goods from China.
Welcome to Null's econometrics 300 tonight's essay question: "Will RHs stock fall by the same amount or more? Explain your answer."
One to pages double spaced. It will be 5% of your grade this quarter.
China is coming out swangin'!
- 34% blanket tariff in retaliation with no exemptions
- Blocking rare earth exports critical to the US military
- Banning 11 US companies from China who sold military equipment to Taiwan
- Blocking US medical tech from China to break the US hold on that industry
- Blocking the US' top 5 chicken sellers from selling in China
- Investigating DuPont's China operations for corruption violations
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/china-trump-tariffs-retaliation.html
So we're seeing a second day of stocks selling off.
Tesla is down another 10% and struggling to find solid support.
Dow DuPont, a normally relatively low volitlatity ticket is down a shocking 20% YoY with most of that happening today on news China will investigate corruption at the firm in retaliation for tariffs.
Oil and gas companies were supposed to be protected by Trump's exemption of oil & gas from tariffs. Chevron is down 12% since the Trump Tariffs despite Trump's favoritism.
One of the dynamics I always find fascinating about the stock market is that investors are extremely good at finding any reason to believe the worst has passed.
So I do expect some of these stocks to recover throughout the month.
However, the stock market also reacts strongly when bad news becomes undeniable. And that point is normally when quarterly reports deliver bad news in black n white.
I expect a second significant drop in about a month from now when enough horrible qrt reports r due.
Throughout this month I expect consumers will realize inflation is coming back with a vengeance and will make big purchases they would otherwise put off, just so they can catch the lower prices rn.
For companies like furniture seller RH this means they will probably not raise prices too much on existing inventory, and will report strong sales for a month or two while they sell through inventory already in the US.
They'll all kick the terrible sales news can down the road till May / June
So if you see retailers claiming "strong April sales" or "limited impact from the tariffs", take it with a Donald Trump sized grain of salt maybe.
They will all be slumping.
Also don't buy the hype if Trump reduces our tariffs, the world literally considers this a problem as big as the invasion of Ukraine or the economic blow of COVID lockdowns.
They are gonna make us regret this and the risk will persist until Republicans are out of power.
Fundamentally we're now in a rapidly evolving situation. Most businesses and stock analyst likely have no clue what the impact of such a large macro change will be.
Even worse, countries all over the world are -just- beginning to react and will take days and weeks to decide how to respond, so things may get much worse for any given company at anytime.
By the time an analyst figures out the impacts for a company the numbers will be wrong, type of situation.
Lockpick Extreme@nullagent The US has lost any long term trust they had with other nations. This isn't a problem that can go away with a different president. The US has shown the world they CAN elect someone like this and can possibly do it again.
Gemma ⭐️🔰🇺🇸 🇵🇭 🎐@LockEx Exactly this. That's why I'm trying to point out to people that if we do managed to recover that trust, it's going to take at least a full generation to do so, and will not happen unless we make major constitutional, legislative, and judicial changes to dramatically weaken the Executive branch to ensure this cannot happen again. It's literally insane that the President is allowed any authority over tariffs and immigration, nevermind what they are attempting to do that is illegal.
TechGuy@LockEx @nullagent
That's a huge problem because it means losing the hegemony
Shadow Heart@nullagent Trump’s got a power similar to Midas, but everything he touches turns to shit.
Menno
Sander van Rossen🇺🇦@nullagent well the US can always circumvent those sanctions by importing through a country they haven't tariffed .. oh wait
don@nullagent Trump is poking the dragon
Nat Oleander@nullagent haaaa I've been in one of their stories on newbury st in Boston... it was an absurd lil field trip when I was hanging out with improv friends. the prices are truly unbelievable. we were just walking around and laughing and taking silly pictures.
some people could live for a year off the money others spend just on updating their living rooms...
rhempel@nat @nullagent These stores are hilarious - literally taking money from suckers that have no idea about what quality furniture looks like or how to put a coherent look together.
There is no reason that at these prices, you could not manufacture locally, but people would rather send their designers to shop in the most expensive retail real estate to get mass produced, average quality.
You have to fill your McMansion with SOMETHING after all ...