Eggy
Rating: Buy
I question their ceiling due to songwriting and vocals that come up short, but there is no doubt these guys can play. And while not great, their vocals are still better than most pure jambands.
For now, it seems like they are destined for more growth and excitement , so we’re firm on the buy rating.
Goose
Rating: Sell
It’s hard to imagine a stock turning around so quickly after selling out two nights at Hampton for their signature event in Goosemas. But that’s what a scandal will do.
In the long term, we still feel Goose is a solid buy. But a big sell off is already happening. The question is when and how does it turn around.
Phish
Rating: Sell
This rating may surprise you at first. But take a step back and think about it. After a sizzling year and dropping Gamehendge, there isn’t a lot of headroom for the 40yo band. Factor in the odd/even year principle and a Sphere run that seems to have created more frustration than excitement, and we’re selling high and will buy after the likely even year dip.
Widespread Panic
Rating: Hold
Is there any other band that does a better job of delivering consistently awesome experiences year after year? Panic is like IBM stock. It won’t get too high, but it certainly won’t crash and you can just keep collecting dividends year after a year.
Daniel Donato
Rating: Strong Buy
This kid is absolutely something special, and he has broad appeal in and beyond the jamband scene. He’s already selling out clubs all over, and we should expect to see him making jumps to bigger rooms as a headliner in no time.
Umphrey’s McGee
Rating: Sell
Their stock has taken a tumble since the pandemic. Once the premier destination for Phish fans looking for something else, they’ve seen a huge increase in competition from Billy Strings and Goose.
Arguably the most original and inventive post-Phish jamband, they’ve somewhat stagnated in their sound and could benefit from a reset and re-invention.
Billy Strings
Rating: Buy
While how well his music translates to arenas is still debatable, there is no question that he’s still growing in his quest to destroy rock and roll. Keep buying until his ceiling is in sight. And if you’re a drummer, go into hiding when his army of hillbilly white walkers comes to town before you get thrown into one of Billy’s drummer concentration camps.
Spafford
Rating: Sell
After winning the reality game show The Next Great Jamband in 2017 and a phenomenal 2018-19, Spafford seemed destined for the jump to theaters. But then came the 2019 drummer swap, the pandemic, the rise of Goose & Billy, and finally the departure of founding keyboardist/vocalist Red Johnson.
Their dedication to the road is admirable and the jams can still be stellar. But it’s hard to imagine how long they can keep it up to dwindling crowds.
Tedeschi Trucks Band
Rating: Hold
Hardcore Derek fans might be frustrated by what some see as a waste of talent in 70s classic rock solos and in-the-box safe playing for a band most famous for their covers.
But the truth is, most people love 70s classic rock and few do it better than TTB. There’s always money in the cover band, and for this reason we have TTB as a solid hold. Collect those dividends along with Derek & the Dominos covers, and go home happy.
Neighbor
Rating: Hold
One year ago, this band was a solid BUY. However, it seems like the buzz died down, and for whatever reason they are not catching on and growing.
They are obviously talented with solid songwriting and vocals, so this rating isn’t a write-off. It just means be prudent and wait a bit before investing any more into them. With most of the band members having other jobs/gigs, one has to question the long-term dedication if stagnation continues.
Dead & Co
Rating: Buy
Given that last Summer was supposedly their last tour, their stock is at its lowest point since John Mayer was announced as part of the band. Their final tour built up a ton of goodwill with the best play of their short career. It’s a great, low-cost investment that could have big upside with a rumored upcoming Sphere residency.
Disco Biscuits
Rating: Hold
From the analyst’s view, the DBs seem to have settled into a good steady state. Their stock had a fairly big, multiyear sell-off leading up to 2019’s “setbreak is over” announcement. They then caught fire as a strong buy, but have since cooled and settled into a good space for an aging jamband.
moe.
Rating: Buy
Sometime in the last few years, moe. has made an interesting transition from aging band with declining popularity to respected elders of the jam scene. From the analyst’s lens, overcoming recent battles with adversity (Rob’s cancer, Chuck’s stroke) have brought more energy to their shows and respect for what has been a pretty great career. It’s not hard to envision their revival since Chuck’s return continuing.
Dogs in a Pile
Rating: Buy
I admittedly don’t know much about this band. But I have a friend I’ve been seeing Phish with for 20+ years who LOVES them. I finally agreed to give a listen, and I plan to go back for more. My first impression is they sound like a cross of Garcia Peoples and moe.
This band could offer a great option for those who enjoy rock improv but despise the tendencies of modern jambands to settle into late-90s Phish-inspired dance grooves.
Taper’s Choice
Rating: Hold
If the band members cared about this band even 10% as much as their fans do, this would be a solid buy. But as it stands, there are no signs these supremely talented musicians plan to give up their day jobs to make Taper’s Choice anything more than occasional side gig.
Garcia Peoples
Rating: Sell
This former NYC-Freaks darling and “next big thing” seems to have faded into oblivion. You might consider this a BUY due to a combination of immense talent and waning popularity that can’t possible wane anymore. But one thing is for certain with this outfit—they can’t manage themselves out of a paper bag. There’s always hope for a turnaround, but for now sell before you end up with nothing.
King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard
Rating: Strong Buy
They are part of the jam scene now so why not? One of the most prolific rock bands ever, yet it feels like they have only scratched the surface of their potential.
KGLW’s stock took a tiny dip with the release of two albums that are arguably offensive to much of the jam scene for two completely different reasons in Petrodragonic’s metal and Silver Cord’s electronica. Perfect time to buy before their next release.
With a new admin, it’s time to update the #JamBandStockReport
If you missed the first round, click the hashtag or go back on this thread I keep nice and neat because I love you.
Eggy
Rating: Buy
In the last report, I questioned their ceiling due to songwriting and vocals that come up short. I still do. But again, these guys can flat out play.
For now, I’m keeping them as a buy, though I think their ceiling is far closer to 2018-19 Spafford than 2018-19 Umphreys.
Goose
Rating: Hold
300 days ago I rated Goose a SELL and wrote, “It’s hard to imagine a stock turning around so quickly after selling out two nights at Hampton for their signature event in Goosemas. But that’s what a scandal will do.”
I was dead wrong. Cotter Ellis quickly made fans forget about the scandal as the band played to new heights—musically and commercially.
Still, it’s hard to imagine them taking another leap anytime soon. Hopefully, I’ll be wrong again.
Phish
Rating: Sell
Last time I wrote, “After a sizzling year and dropping Gamehendge, there isn’t a lot of headroom for the 40yo band. Factor in the odd/even year principle and a planned Sphere run that seems to have created more frustration than excitement, and we’re selling high and will buy after the likely even year dip.”
I was so wrong. #Phish had arguably their best year since 2015? 2013? 2003? Maybe Trey reads my posts?
No way they can keep this up. Sell.
Widespread Panic
Rating: Hold
Just gonna write the same thing I did last time:
Is there any other band that does a better job of delivering consistently awesome experiences year after year? Panic is like IBM stock. It won’t get too high, but it certainly won’t crash, and you can just keep collecting dividends year after a year.
Daniel Donato
Rating: Strong Buy
Nothing has changed. Donato is still arguably the strongest buy in the report given where he is and what his ceiling is.
Wrote this last time:
This kid is absolutely something special, and he has broad appeal in and beyond the jamband scene. He’s already selling out clubs all over, and we should expect to see him making jumps to bigger rooms as a headliner in no time.
Umphrey’s McGee
Rating: Hold
Upgrading from a sell to a hold. Feeling is they bottomed out and are too talented not to rise again.
Last time:
Their stock has taken a tumble…Once the premier destination for Phish fans looking for something else, they’ve seen a huge increase in competition from Billy Strings and Goose.
Arguably the most original and inventive post-Phish jamband, they’ve somewhat stagnated in their sound and could benefit from a reset and re-invention.
Sturgill Simpson
Rating: Buy
First time on the stock report. Since Sturgill started playing live again, he seems to have tapped into his inner jamband fan, and it’s paying off in spades for his live shows. Covers, surprises, improv, and his impeccable voice and songwriting to go along with it.
If Sturgill stays on this path (and there is zero indication he won’t), he’s just getting started on his way to being a premier touring band.
Billy Strings
Rating: Buy
I wrote the following last time:
“…there is no question that he’s still growing in his quest to destroy rock and roll. Keep buying until his ceiling is in sight. And if you’re a drummer, go into hiding when his army of hillbilly white walkers comes to town before you get thrown into one of Billy’s drummer concentration camps.”
Not much has changed outside of an impending MAGA admin accelerating the rise of jamgrass even more. Winter is coming.
Spafford
Rating: Sell
After winning the reality game show The Next Great Jamband in 2017 and a phenomenal 2018-19, Spafford seemed destined for the jump to theaters. Then came the 2019 drummer swap, the pandemic, the rise of Goose & Billy, and finally the departure of founding keyboardist/vocalist Red Johnson. Add in leaves of absence by their founding guitarist & bassist.
While their dedication to the road is admirable, it's hard to imagine they keep it up much longer.
@AG3rD @Brian Not gonna argue. I think his voice has actually gotten better over the years—at least the confidence with which he sings.
But one of the consequences of the rises of Goose and Billy is jamband fans have become a little less tolerant of vocal or songwriting deficiencies just because the musicianship is great—and that hurt UM a lot.
Fwiw, my favorite eras to listen to probably go like this (back of the napkin, no gaps):
72-74
77
90-91 (Bruce)
90 (Brent)
79
76
I find myself listening to a lot of 80-82 recently because I don’t know it well.
I really don’t like 84-86 and 87-89. The eras I tend to disagree with the masses on are 71 (largely bores me), 78 (hit or miss for me but seems to be universally loved), and 94 (I think Fall 94 is sneaky great despite Vince).
@chopaganda my order would be:
June-Sept 1976--l love the jazz and the triple decker sandwiches
1977
1970
1990
1973/74
I’m not in love with the Hornsby as much as most. And I like fall ‘94 too as that’s when I have the most attendance bias. Obv, this is a big project to take on, but you say GD never goes off the rotation (it doesn’t in my house either), but I know you are up to the challenge.
@chopaganda I love this band so much, but they’ve always been try-hards and over the past few years it really started to show in off-putting ways.
They seem to be more focused on the music than the business this year and I really hope fans come back to their shows. Last time they were here in St. Louis the turnout was really disappointing.
I’m a cautious buy.
@Brooks I can most certainly see that. I have friends in Colorado who still won’t see them again after getting stuck with hundreds of dollars worth of tickets during the Red Rocks 2021 debacle.
Whether they meant it or not, they came off during the pandemic like they were the only ones affected, and it left a mark.
@Brooks @chopaganda While the NFT seem cringy due to the culture they come from, UM has always tried things differently with merch.
The Mantis release with prerelease purchases unlocking additional content. Headphones and Snowcones at shows. Myxsystem App for Asking for a Friend. Bottom Half was just outtakes from SiN.
@chopaganda @Brooks Definitely not alright then.
I searched online but still unsure what occurred. Was there a surge pricing applied?
@Brian @Brooks When they announced the 2021 Red Rocks run they said it would be capped at 2500 people so tickets would be available via lottery. Fans all entered for 4 per night. At 3 shows and $100 tickets that’s $1200 per order. Personally, me, my wife and my buddy all put in for 4x3 in hopes one order hit.
Well, they delayed the lottery (after everyone submitted) as Red Rocks expanded capacity from 1/4 full to 1/2 full and eventually full capacity.
1/2
The end result is everyone hit on every order. We had $3600 in tickets for 3 of us.
Then to add insult to injury, the band kept advertising additional tickets on sale. Fans complained and Browning told off the fans in a rant on Instagram.
UM at RR was something everyone used to come out for, even if not a hardcore fan. Now, I have plenty of friends who swore “not another dime” after they ate hundreds of dollars of tickets and they still won’t go back.
@DaveG924 @Brooks @chopaganda I would agree with this statement.
They had a rough patch with Jake being out for a bit, Kris shoulder surgery. Since his return the energy is improved.
He has a minnie mouse sticker or something somewhere in his amp,
I assume that is about his voice.
Keyboard player voice is in similar range, it is unfortunate.
I can accept it though.
I think he might be a musician/music nerds musician. I hear him and think "This is like the Allman Brothers in 1971" while my wife is like "This is a great country song, but 20 minutes is too much"
Some Donato thoughts..
The "Country" thing is what limits him.
His drummer leads instead of follows, a good Yammy drummer does both.
Sugar Leg (keys) is 110 percent an asset and should be allowed to dominate more.
Donato with other bands is often better than Donato with his own band.
That said, I will continue to seek out his shows out, because the venues are small, the crowd is great and the vibe is good.
Have you done a full 2 sets with him?
The country thing is great, and they absolutely twisted "down by the riverside" into something beautiful and got way out.
And I loved it,
But the highlight, for everyone I think was the disco intro and jam on Dance in the Desert.
The country thing makes for a solid base, for sure.
I dunno, maybe I am just channeling my wife❤️ who is arguably less jammy than I. But then sometimes she can be more jammy, so.. 😂
Thoughtful, in depth analysis like this, with footnotes and shit..
I dunno man, It just feels weird,
@tor_haxson @chris @chopaganda I’m so happy that someone else recognizes the genius that is Sugar Legg. That guy is incredible. He’s a multi-instrumentalist, sings high harmonies, and takes Donato’s band to the next level. He’s definitely the secret weapon of the group.
Great IG follow too: https://www.instagram.com/sugarlegg/profilecard/?igsh=aGo2dW8wY24xNThi
@mrcompletely @aburtch @chris @chopaganda
Orange you glad I didn't say Banana
If there are people out there, that see Donato and do not recognize SL's power, then they probably miss sunsets, rainbows and other natural wonders.
Chop
AG3rD
Brooks
Brian
Chris
John B
Dave Goldstein
Dave (nkL⭕ttery)
tor_haxson
Rosey
Mr. Completely
aburtch
Trey
Divided 🌩️ Scott
Dan Mielcarz