I'd just like to remind Americans that France is currently on its Fifth Republic since 1789 (with three Empires—with monarchs—interleaved until 1870).
The USA appears to be in the dying days of its Second Republic (time out in 1860-65) but something better will emerge eventually, if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse in the meantime.
This, too, shall pass.
Balkanization, with 3-4 nuclear armed regional superstates. Which isn't better, but maybe the most likely. Have you read Christopher Brown's novels? Could be something like that too.
@aka_quant_noir That's probably non-viable: nuclear weapons require maintenance every couple of years or they cease to be serviceable, and the supply chains are very exotic and centralized. Same goes for the delivery systems: an H-bomb is no use if you can't put it where you want it.
Our best precedent is the denuclearization of all but one of the Soviet successor states (Russia ended up with all the nukes).
@cstross @aka_quant_noir I worry that's never gonna happen again. The only reason Ukraine gave up their Soviet nukes was they got guarantees that folks would back them up if Russia invaded...
IMO one reason it was important to support Ukraine at the beginning of the war was to make future de-nuclearization more likely to happen.
Ukraine was one of the only states to ever willingly give up nuclear weapons and I worry others will not do that again bc of the way Ukraine has been treated.
Charlie Stross
Maxilo Overit
sidereal
Steve Popovich
Robert H
Andreas