Charlie Stross

I'd just like to remind Americans that France is currently on its Fifth Republic since 1789 (with three Empires—with monarchs—interleaved until 1870).

The USA appears to be in the dying days of its Second Republic (time out in 1860-65) but something better will emerge eventually, if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse in the meantime.

This, too, shall pass.

Nov 8, 2024 at 11:39amWeb
Show threadMaxilo OveritNov 8, 2024

@cstross

Balkanization, with 3-4 nuclear armed regional superstates. Which isn't better, but maybe the most likely. Have you read Christopher Brown's novels? Could be something like that too.

Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024

@aka_quant_noir That's probably non-viable: nuclear weapons require maintenance every couple of years or they cease to be serviceable, and the supply chains are very exotic and centralized. Same goes for the delivery systems: an H-bomb is no use if you can't put it where you want it.

Our best precedent is the denuclearization of all but one of the Soviet successor states (Russia ended up with all the nukes).

Show threadMaxilo OveritNov 8, 2024
@cstross That's if all goes well. Non viable nukes may be the best case scenario of balkanization.
Show threadsiderealNov 8, 2024

@cstross @aka_quant_noir I worry that's never gonna happen again. The only reason Ukraine gave up their Soviet nukes was they got guarantees that folks would back them up if Russia invaded...

IMO one reason it was important to support Ukraine at the beginning of the war was to make future de-nuclearization more likely to happen.

Ukraine was one of the only states to ever willingly give up nuclear weapons and I worry others will not do that again bc of the way Ukraine has been treated.

Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@sidereal @cstross @aka_quant_noir after seeing Trump turn his back on Ukraine, and the obliteration to follow, no country in its right mind would ever willingly give them up.
Show threadRobert HNov 8, 2024

@cstross @aka_quant_noir

#Ukraine willingly gave up her #nuclear capability in 1994 in exchange for assurances of sovereignty from the U.K., U.S., and Russia. Google #Budapest Memorandum.

How well did that work out?

Show threadAndreasNov 8, 2024
@cstross @aka_quant_noir If NK can maintain nukes, pretty much everyone can.
Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@cstross @aka_quant_noir and aren't basically all the nukes already located in red states? Lots of ICBM silos on those empty plains...scary thought.
Show threadDavid WheelerNov 8, 2024
@cstross true, but in the meantime, there will be so much unnecessary suffering
Show threadlp0 on fire Nov 8, 2024
@theory, personally, I'm just waiting for a tyrant named Khan…
Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@lp0_on_fire @theory sad to say, our white supremacists do seem to be setting the stage for eugenics wars.
Show threadPteryx the Puzzle SecretaryNov 8, 2024

@theory @cstross Every friend I have is at risk of being killed or kidnapped.

Every. Single. One.

Show threadRob FahrniNov 8, 2024
@pteryx @theory @cstross You would be safe with me. There are those of us who will have your back.
Show threadratfactorNov 8, 2024
@fahrni @pteryx @theory @cstross Same, and there are MILLIONS of us who did the right thing. We just need to stick together through this.
Show threadMx VerdaNov 8, 2024

@pteryx @theory @cstross

Can they learn martial arts? They shouldn’t need to regardless, but do they have their passports? Official documentation not just for travelling, but also jobs, housing, benefits etc.

Again: shouldn’t need this shit, but give them every advantage and extra time for decisions later.

Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@MxVerda @pteryx @theory @cstross that might help in some situations, but martial arts against large numbers of armed police/soldiers seems like a non-starter; martial artists can do a lot, but they can't actually deflect, or even dodge, bullets.
Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@theory @cstross what will it take for the US to break out the guillotines like France did, and establish a Third Republic to replace our plutocracy? It would seem to take something as devastating as the Civil War.
Show threadRAKNov 9, 2024
@sspopovich @theory @cstross: A sea change in the American psyche away from the "temporarily embarrassed billionaires" model.
Show threadSteve PopovichNov 9, 2024
@raktheundead @theory @cstross sad but true.
Show threadMighty OrbotNov 8, 2024
@cstross I’m not sad for the state of American democracy; I’m sad for the innocent lives that will be ruined or lost while we’re waiting for it to recover. 😞
Show threadacbNov 8, 2024
@cstross maybe the third republic, imposed by the occupying powers, will be based on Marxism-Maoism-Xi Jinping Thought
Show threadParaplegic RacehorseNov 8, 2024

@acb

@cstross

More likely a bunch of corpo-baronies, I fear.

Show threadWilfried KlaebeNov 8, 2024
@cstross That's quite a big "if" this time.
Show threadKid ManiaNov 8, 2024

@wonka @cstross
It really is a big "if"--

"...if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse in the meantime..."

😂
Under Trump -- of course -- all worries about climate, climate action or climate change are effectively dead. He's made it clear time and time again.

"...This, too, shall pass...."

As concerns climate, no, no it won't.

Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024
@clintruin @wonka Trump presides over a decaying superpower with about 5% of the planetary population and a declining share of GDP. He can ignore climate change but climate change won't ignore him. The rest of the world will hopefully learn from his mistakes.
Show threadKid ManiaNov 8, 2024
@cstross @wonka
That word "hopefully" sure is doing a lot of heavy lifting these days, eh?
Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024
@clintruin @wonka Yes it WILL pass, in the same way that the end Cretaceous extinction event passed within only a few million years. Sucked to be a non-flying dinosaur, though.
Show threadPteryx the Puzzle SecretaryNov 8, 2024

@cstross @clintruin @wonka

Is the extinction of the entire human race, the death of all known sapience, supposed to give us hope?

Show threadKid ManiaNov 8, 2024

@pteryx @cstross @wonka
Meh. We're like cockroaches. It's hard to get rid of us all. As for hope, I dunno what to tell you. How about this reliable stand-by...?

It is what it is.

Show threadSpace HoboNov 8, 2024
@clintruin @wonka @cstross https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9U23uF8RAE ← It is by no means rosy, but it's important to focus on the realities of the global context and not fall into fatalist impotence.
What does a second Trump term mean for climate action?

YouTube
Show threadSteve PopovichNov 8, 2024
@clintruin @wonka @cstross it will pass, but it could pass like a kidney stone...or worse, it may pass only because humanity does.
Show threadOdo TournesolNov 8, 2024

@cstross we didn't even rewrite our constitution when we started the second one.

Fun fact: Marx and Engels wrote to Lincoln encouraging him to use the Union Army as a force to enforce a completely new constitution focused around worker soverignty and racial/gender equality. Lincoln apparently said he'd consider it, but his assassination cut short their correspondence

Show threadPeter ButlerNov 8, 2024

@dualhammers @cstross

"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.”

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/first-annual-message-9

First Annual Message | The American Presidency Project

Show threadSaareMarthaNov 8, 2024
@cstross
This, too, shall pass
- if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse in the meantime.
Pretty big IF there
Show threadThe Penguin of EvilNov 8, 2024
@cstross As I keep reminding people global thermonuclear war is currently the best and maybe only implementable option for fixing climate change in time.
Show threadLars Marowsky-Brée 😷Nov 8, 2024
@etchedpixels @cstross Time for me to finally get my "the only winning move is not to play" tattoo.
I'm not a fan that that particular interpretation seems to be gaining relevance again.
At least we killed enough bees to make the prediction not quite right.
Show threadThe Penguin of EvilNov 8, 2024
@larsmb @cstross Or "Got Change for 25 million people" ?
Show threadChris SamuelNov 8, 2024
@etchedpixels @cstross an apocalyptic version of rock, paper, scissors. Global warming, nuclear winter, another pandemic.
Show threadmuxauy 🚴🇪🇺Nov 8, 2024
@cstross eh, something better will emerge eventually even with planetary ecosystem collapse, it just might take a long time and it will likely come from a different species
Show threadBob ThomsonNov 8, 2024
@cstross I think many of us in France think it’s time for the 6th Republic to spin up.
Show threadSophie SchmiegNov 8, 2024
@cstross the French only acquired nukes, and with them the ability to destroy all life on Earth, during the Fifth Republic, though.
Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024
@sophieschmieg Nuclear weapons are incapable of destroying all life on earth. They ARE capable of collapsing global supply chains, killing billions of humans, and making the living envy the dead, but that's not the same. Earth abides!
Show threadSophie SchmiegNov 8, 2024
@cstross fair, I should have specified that I meant human life. Rats, cockroaches, and deep sea vent inhabiting bacteria will likely be fine. And heck, a few humans might even make it, let's have another genetic bottleneck, why not, it was fine the first time!
Show threadElendolNov 8, 2024

@cstross is the 5th better than the 4th? Is the 5th any good for democracy? I am not sure. Be careful what you wish for.

Not everything shall pass, not everything gets better.

Show threadDr. Lorraine McFaddenNov 8, 2024
@cstross
Back in the 60's we talked about revolution. Surprise, surprise, the revolution has come. Not the form I thought we would take back then. All the same, it is real and it is here.
Show threadRudyNov 8, 2024

@cstross "if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse in the meantime"

that's a yuge IF

Show threadsbiNov 8, 2024
@cstross I can't read that last sentence without pavloving this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qybUFnY7Y8w
OK Go - This Too Shall Pass - Rube Goldberg Machine - Official Video

Website | http://www.okgo.netInstagram | http://www.instagram.com/okgoTwitter | http://www.twitter.com/okgoFacebook | http://www.facebook.com/okgoStore | htt...

YouTube
Show threadSharan VolinNov 8, 2024
@cstross well, maybe the French Revolution phase will happen there while the billionaires are in charge and he crashes the economy.
Show threadJdeBPNov 8, 2024

@cstross

I've explained it as Constitution of the United States of America version 1.0.27 before now.

Eire is on version 1.0.33.

The USSR got to version 3.

(-:

#ConstitutionalLaw

Show threadtexanarchyNov 8, 2024
@cstross lots of dead folks in between
Show threadMister DaveNov 8, 2024
@cstross for some of us.
Show threadRobert WilsonNov 8, 2024
@cstross the USA, just like the British empire before it, is in decline, and it is powerless to resist. A few decades ago, the USA was responsible for 40% of global GDP. That's around 25% now.
Show threadJaime RobertsonNov 8, 2024

@cstross Been trying to tell myself that. To hell with “Interesting times”.
Meanwhile coming up with new words to the Presidential anthem:
Hail to the Chief,
Traitor and Thief…..

https://mastodon.social/@JamesPadraicR/113436237945440783

Show threadEsslar2Nov 8, 2024
@cstross What should "pass" is the idea of nation-states altogether. No more "Russia," "China," "USA," or any other self-proclaimed "country." They have always been nothing more than protection rackets, aimed at stealing people's lives, money, land, and freedom. We should move toward direct democracy aka anarchy, so that we directly make our own decisions and take action to solve problems without being forced to do it the way someone "higher up" tells us to do it. We already practice anarchy in much of our daily lives. We need to practice it on a larger scale, or we will keep fighting the same battles over and over again and nothing that needs to be dealt with will get dealt with.
Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024
@flyhigh Do you have a solution to the coordination problem, in this era of mass disinformation campaigns? Relying on individuals to spontaneously do the right thing seems manifestly ridiculous in an age of mass religious hysteria and vaccine conspiracy theories.
Show threadEsslar2Nov 8, 2024
@cstross This question has been asked since the 1600s. I do not have an answer, but I think there are many answers. The thing is, how do we work together to deal with problems in a more face-to-face manner so that responsibility for how things get done is taken by all of us through consensus, agreement by everyone? Do we form into regions, where people have a way to get together and decide things? Do we move towards being like the people in Umea, Sweden, who work with each other rather than depend on a "higher" government (far away, in Stockholm) to tell them what to do and is known as the most "feminist city in Sweden?" What do you think?
Show threadRebecca SegersNov 8, 2024
@cstross Important caveat: "if we avoid planetary ecosystem collapse"
Show threadOlivier Roux (moose)Nov 8, 2024
@cstross Big effin' massive "IF" here
Show threadDanyNov 8, 2024
@cstross Love the optimism! Thank you, of course you are right. The other "smolk" clouding the outset is my own estimated lifespan. Hope to remain to see that future.
Show threadCharlie StrossNov 8, 2024
@dany_57987 I don't expect to live long enough to see what comes after this round of fascism. (I'm 60 and not in great health.) So my hopes are for everyone else.