Trump did not win this election
We lost this election
Our side did not bother to vote. 1 in 10 of our voters did not show up
Trump was headed to epic defeat, at 46% of vote. Instead, when 1 in 10 of our voters didn't vote, Harris victory at 52% turned into a loss at 48%
We gave him this victory
@harpij @tomiahonen Hard to believe, I agree. But true. I ran the numbers myself, and determined that both major parties came up short, but Democrats much more. Trump is missing around 2/3 of a million votes, but Harris is missing more like 11.8 million. Also, none of the 51 state races were spoiled.
Around 13 million vote are just plain missing, and most of those would have gone to the Democratic candidate.
Attached: 1 image @[email protected] I have some math for you. Look at this table. (I guess it is from WP, but different sources citet it (a.o. AOL)) If you multiply the shares of the groups in the population in this table by the respective vote shares and add them up, you get 50.3% for Harris and about 49% for Trump. Of course, you have to take rounding errors into account, but the tendency in the graph speaks rather narrowly in favor of Harris. @[email protected] ->
@agrinova @tomiahonen Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Fraud is possible, but unprovable statistics don't prove it.
My own sense is that millions of likely Harris voters withheld their votes, probably over Gaza. There were a lot of people like that, who said they did that (or cast blank ballots), and listening to them talk it's clear they did not understand the stakes involved, and maybe much more.
@XDarwinAwardsX @tomiahonen Beliefs can be sincere and powerful, but are not facts. It's important to discern the difference. You're also making the forensic error of confusing discrete observation with much broader trends: "What I see is what's typical." There's no reason to assume that.
You're also misusing the word 'impossible'. It's very possible.
@XDarwinAwardsX I've worked elections in the US for many years. We have perhaps the most secure and accurate election system in the world. It's much harder to make votes disappear than people think it is -- and almost impossible to get away with it.
Occam's Razor must lead us to a depressing but simple conclusion: A little over 13 million people either cast blank ballots, or just didn't show up. That requires no chicanery on anyone's part, just poor judgement. Which we all know is legion.
I saw it mentioned yesterday that just 45 million American voters are REGISTERED as DEMOCRATS. (https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-voters-have-a-party-affiliation/) & 17 million are in California & New York!
That means in EVERY election the Democrats rely on getting a third to a half of their votes from voters who ARE NOT registered Democrats.
I’d bet nearly ALL of us Registered Democrats voted and voted for Harris, but she needed help from Democratic-leaning & other registered voters, which she apparently didn’t get. Why?
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing,'
- Edmund Burke
@XDarwinAwardsX @veautifulwallsinfo @tomiahonen Again, you're assuming that what you believe you personally and individually saw or heard is a widespread truth. That's the same thinking error that J6 rioters made: Everyone THEY know voted for Trump, so 'obviously' Biden could only have won if Democrats threw out lots of Trump votes. See how that works? Avoid that mind trap.
YOU DON'T KNOW what people you don't know would or wouldn't do. Many have SAID they didn't vote.
@veautifulwallsinfo @tomiahonen A lot of people "say" a lot of things, or are SAID to said something. It's not evidence. They could be lying or mistaken, or the report itself could be false or mistaken.
Conspiracy thinking is tempting because it's commonly more emotionally satisfying than harder truths that are also possible. Only solid evidence can lead you to real facts, though.
@veautifulwallsinfo Given the speaker, it could mean almost anything, including, "It's time for my nap."
He said versions of this, and I interpreted most of them to mean, "If you elect us this time, we'll rig it for good." Most examples were appeals for votes, so I don't believe any where about THIS election, but instead any after.
@tomiahonen Tomi, expecting the same number of voters as 2020 when America was quarantined & watching news 24/7, the whole nation had mail-in ballots & had just witnessed the disastrous effect Fat Nixon had on the COVID effort... Americans were very motivated to vote.
Now the issue was PUTTING BREAD ON THE TABLE & the campaign's message was marginal, poorly communicated & we lost.
Don't blame the victim.
(Oh & here come the conspiracy theorists. Stop. You guys are embarrassing yourselves.)
@tomiahonen I'm disappointed as anyone else that's been working the phone banks & texting swing states. But I'm echoing research from Prof. Lynn Vavreck, UCLA Political Scientist.
I even spoke with her on the 'turnout' matter before the election & she was adamant that voting would be SIGNIFICANTLY down for all the reasons I listed & more.
It was a campaign issue, not an American voter issue. Voters will be voters & I disagree that the victims were the ones that failed.
Tamara Furey
Tomi T Ahonen
Harpij P
WesDym
Tody Motmot
Hartmut Neubauer
XDarwinAwardsX for Harris-Walz
BronMason
kurtsh