Tomi T Ahonen

This is my prediction of the USA Presidential Election result in 2024, the Electoral College count. I predict Kamala Harris wins 319 EV votes Trump gets 219 (compare Biden won 306-232)

Harris sweeps the 7 swing states, she wins

Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Oct 19, 2024 at 5:56pmWeb
Show threadTxTigerOct 19, 2024

@tomiahonen

You don’t think she will get the blue dot in Nebraska?

Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 19, 2024
@Txtiger yes she also gets the blue dot in Nebraska, that is in the map but I did not expressly say so. sorry. Yes she wins the one Nebraska EV vote too
Show threadMikeWasNov 3, 2024
@tomiahonen @Txtiger NE2 is on the map in the margin above Michigan.
Show threadPete PantazisOct 19, 2024
@tomiahonen man, this is a thrilling prediction! I’m hoping Florida does an Obama style flip for her just because it would be nice for it to go back to blue. Wish Texas would flip to blue one day soon…
Show threadjules / cowbell as fuckOct 19, 2024
@tomiahonen 🔥🔥🔥👏
Show threadJohn SandwolfOct 19, 2024

@tomiahonen. That would be nice. But I don't see her getting Georgia or North Carolinia. Big maybe on Arizona. I'd love to see margins big enough that former president Dumpster can't claim foul play.

What I can wrap my head around is why people continue to support the bastard.

Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 19, 2024
@GrayWolf57 you can bet against the most accurate forecaster in teh world if you want. But Kamala Harris wins GA and NC. She is FAR stronger in NC than in AZ or GA. But she wins all those 7 states I said she will.
Show threadQuinn Sikora for HarrisOct 19, 2024

NE native here, and I’m happy to report Omaha is looking pretty strong for Harris/Walz.

I would love to see the 320-218 routing we/they all deserve!

And personally, I will enjoy watching the heads of some in my orbit explode when the results come in.

I appreciate your analyses so much, Tomi!

Show threaddschulten #FdgoUltras🕯️Oct 19, 2024

@tomiahonen Not. Gonna. Happen.
Unfortunately, of course.

#harris2024

Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 19, 2024
@dschulten oh? You wanted to bet against the most accurate forecaster in politics? Last time 2020 my forecast was off by one state. I also predicted the correct result in Senate and house. I got the midterms 2022 correct, both Senate and House. I got hte midterms 2018 correct, both midterms & House. I got the FINALISTS FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION correct, called before the first TV debate, that Nikki Haley finishes ahead of DeSantis. Nobody else made that call. I got that right too
Show threadMad MaenadOct 19, 2024
@tomiahonen Thank you for this encouraging analysis. I see you say she loses Montana, does that mean Tester loses and we lose the senate?
Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 19, 2024
@MadMaenad I cannot yet make my prediction on the Senate. I will do that of course likely on the final Sunday before election day. We have multiple paths to keep the Senate, are not only hanging on Tester re-election but would love to have him do that. I do not have any MT data that is valid. As to MT, TX, FL, OH and NB - in EACH of those states, our Senator will outperform Kamala Harris. So don't make that assumption her loss means we lose the Senate seat in that state
Show threadLisaSFOct 19, 2024
@tomiahonen 🙏🤞
Show threadT. T. PerryOct 19, 2024

@tomiahonen

Your forecast, my fantasy. ⏳😬🙏

Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 19, 2024
@ttpphd Cheers. 17 days. That vote count will not last long, they call the election shortly after midnight, well before we go to sleep - and after Kamala Harris is declared winner of the 2024 election - there will be DANCING around the WORLD
Show threadJohan DiederikOct 19, 2024
@tomiahonen from Europe, hope you are right!
Show threadDenise VOct 26, 2024
@tomiahonen
Trump telling Rogan that he pays for fake polling.
Harris will be our next president!
https://x.com/i/status/1850231954068619461
😱 Scary Larry 😱 🇺🇦✊🏻🇺🇸🗽 (@aintscarylarry) on X

Here’s trump admitting to Joe Rogan that he’s paying for fake polls to show that he’s ahead. Also admitting to an incredibly low sample rate in these bogus polls. Everything about trump is staged and fake except the criminality, the treason, and the hate.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 26, 2024
@denvieira7 LOL thanks Denise. I absolutely was not going to listen to one second of that podcast, but thanks for this link, that was fascinating :-) Of course not only does Trump pay for fake polls, he knows they are fake. So he has known for months, he has lost this race, but he has sent money to the pollsters to keep the fiction, the illusion alive
Show threadDenise VOct 26, 2024
@tomiahonen
I can't stand the sound of orange Caligula speaking. Kudos to those who endure it and break it down to soundbytes for the rest of us.
Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 26, 2024
@denvieira7 Yes, totally cudos! Me too. The last time I listed to Trump at any length was the debate. The previous time was his previous debate (Biden) and the time before that, that I listened to Trump at length, was his last debate with Biden in 2020. I have not listened to even one of his rallies nor any interviews. BUT I do take sound-bites sometimes if someone sends a juicy bit :-) And I HATE hearing his voice :-)
Show threadStopTheMadnessOct 30, 2024
@tomiahonen You're the only reason I come on this site right now. Need your predictions. Thank you!
Show threadTomi T AhonenOct 30, 2024
@pook My pleasure. That prediction (electoral collegel) was made 15 days before the election. I will do final update to that map on Sunday in our final Mamalamath Day. And that map looks very solid, Arizona and Georgia are only 2 states now seen blue, that might change to red, but equal chance Florida or Texas turns blue. I expect map will remain same after all the last polls come in between today and Sunday
Show threadEvelynNov 2, 2024
@tomiahonen without you, I’m not sure I would’ve made it. I am truly grateful.😊
Show threadTomi T AhonenNov 2, 2024
@Giraffe40 Cheers Evelyn and seriously it is good that you were with us on this journey... 3 more days and then we party and dance!!!!
Show threadHartmut NeubauerNov 2, 2024
@tomiahonen ... and what about #Iowa? https://newsmast.social/@KamalaHarrisWin/113415908053253443
Kamala Harris News Group 2.0 (@[email protected])

Ann Selzer is one of the most respected pollsters in the country. This is remarkable. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Newsmast
Show threadWhite GandalfNov 3, 2024

@tomiahonen Wow looks like maybe you can flip Iowa blue!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/02/us-presidential-election-live-donald-trump-kamala-harris-democrats-republicans

US politics live: Women’s marches hit the streets in support of Harris as both candidates target east coast – as it happened

Harris leading Trump in new Iowa poll in startling reversal, pulling ahead of Trump 47% to 44%

the Guardian
Show threadDolf van der Haven 🐘🐓Nov 5, 2024
@tomiahonen Based on what data?
Show threadTomi T AhonenNov 5, 2024
@dvdhaven read my timeline. I spent all Sunday on this
Show threadDolf van der Haven 🐘🐓Nov 6, 2024
@tomiahonen Looks like it was vain effort...