SturmUndDrangerJul 3, 2024
UK Election Results

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from MRP by #JLabPartners for Channel 4:

🔴 Labour: 442 (+240)
🔵 Conservatives: 111 (-254)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 58 (+47)
🟡 SNP: 15 (-33)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 1 (+1)
🟢 Green Party: 1 (=)

Changes with 2019 GE result.

Details, including map: https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #MRP #GE2024

Final J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats — JLP

JLP
Jul 3, 2024 at 8:37pmWeb
Show threadSturmUndDrangerJul 3, 2024
@ukelections This is not UK politics, it is GB politics. Where is the coverage and commentary on the NI vote?
Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 3, 2024

@SturmUndDranger if you'll look at the #nipol tag for my account, you'll see I've covered every NI poll this election, but unfortunately there's only one pollster who covers NI and they've only done 3 polls, and there are no MRP models available for NI because it is an incredibly difficult area to model and only has 18 seats.

You'll also note that the title of the post above is "GB MRP OPINION POLL", not "UK MRP OPINION POLL".

Show threadSturmUndDrangerJul 3, 2024
@ukelections Indeed, and thank you for your considered and thoughtful response. My comment was not aimed at your work in particular but at the recent deluge of #ukpol that is actually just #gbpol railing against the elision from the discussion of a significant element of the kingdom. Yes, it’s small and probably insignificant (unless you were Teresa May needing friends). Yes, nothing seems to ever change there. But it’s a part of the nation where affairs aren’t yet settled.
Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 3, 2024

@SturmUndDranger you're absolutely right on that one, but unfortunately almost nobody uses #gbpol, so #ukpol gets used to mean anything relating to politics in the UK in general.

NI is definitely consistently overlooked in UK politics, to its detriment, but I think part of that is that it only returns 18 MPs, the majority of whom don't really participate in Westminster politics and the plurality of whom are abstentionists, such that who governs the UK is almost never affected by NI politics.

Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 3, 2024
@SturmUndDranger Though I think the ultimate thing to blame for that is the NI Assembly setup which keeps NI politics deadlocked in a permanent division over the constitutional question at the expense of any meaningful choice over domestic politics, but which seems to suit successive UK governments completely fine :/
Show threadSturmUndDrangerJul 3, 2024

@ukelections Yes, it deserves a fairer shout than that - even on tabloid grounds the (until 2024) leader of a party with 7MPs was today sent for trial on rape and other sexual offence charges with little input from the commentariat in a way inconceivable if he had led say the Greens or Plaid Cymru.

The constitutional constraints do make things more inward facing but the question they answer (what country is this) is politically more fascinating than say the Clacton circus.

Show threadSturmUndDrangerJul 3, 2024
@ukelections Also a quick thank you for the polite discourse. Mastodon is so much nicer than the bird site and it cheers to see it keep this characteristic as it expands.
Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 3, 2024
@SturmUndDranger likewise!
Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 3, 2024
@SturmUndDranger Absolutely. It is honestly baffling how, having fought so hard to keep NI within the UK, the British political and media establishment seem to be obliviously doing all they can to persuade it to change its mind. IMO it's hard to think of anywhere on these islands that has been more poorly served by politicians and the media of every stripe in every era.
Show threadEaster Wax. He is RISEN.Jul 3, 2024
@ukelections They have a more encouraging take on Reform's chances at least!
Show threadRichard Michael BlaberJul 3, 2024
@ukelections Nigel Farage as MP for Clacton - God help us! He'll be on BBC Question Time more than ever, & even more able to give his vile far-right wing views a veneer of "respectability".
Show threadJ.Sʜᴀʀᴘ🌍🇺🇦Fʀᴇᴇᴅᴏᴍ&DᴇᴍᴏᴄʀᴀᴄʏJul 4, 2024

@ukelections

That looks pretty horrific for the SNP.

Show threadUK Election ResultsJul 4, 2024
@JSharp1436 yeah, though I'd caution that the MRPs are less reliable when it comes to Scotland.