"…has raised questions about whether this was a Russian-ordered assassination carried out on European soil" 🤨 my dudes I know you don't want to get ahead of the facts and that's great, but uh, I think it does a bit more than raising the question
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/20/spain-russia-ukraine-kuminov-assassination-defector/
In the latest big Swedish package "underwater weapons such as mines and torpedoes" 🤨 (torpedoes would seem to make an excellent addition to #Ukraine's USV capability)
Not great: #Iran "has provided #Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/
Raytheon customer satisfaction survey: On a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate this Patriot SAM battery?
KpsZSU: Oh, I'd say it's about… A-50 https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1761091710594039822
Western observers: Bit far for Patriot, but what else? 🤔
Russian sources / Z telegram: Probably friendly fire, again
Ukraine: Nah, we shot it down with a 60-year old Soviet SAM
IMO the friendly fire explanation strains credulity. Shooting down one of your own AWACS would be astonishingly bad, two in separate incidents in the same zone? Not buying it without solid evidence
Ukraine has had two years to rig modern electronics onto S-200 airframes (and we know they modded them for land attack) so that doesn't seem out of the question. OTOH Patriot being a bit more capable than acknowledged in public sources would seem plausible too, and A-50s might be particularly vulnerable to anti-radiation modes
Given the Russians lost two in apparently similar circumstances, it seems likely they didn't fully understand the first incident
Possible counter-arguments: SAM crew launches at a real (or Ukraine EW generated) target in the same area, missiles lock onto the A-50? Seems unlikely, and even if possible, after the first incident you'd expect extreme measures to prevent it happening again
Or Ukraine compromised C&C? Or SAM operators secretly working for ATESH? But again, pulling that off just once would be amazing, twice would be ridiculous
Источники ВЧК-ОГПУ рассказали, что очередной сбитый сегодня самолет ДРЛО А 50 У, скорее всего, был поражен ракетным комплексом Patriot (Пэтриот), а наводил его на цель мобильный малогабаритный широкополосный радар разведчик, который развернут на небольшом БПЛА и может проводить полет в глубоком тылу . Обнаружить его сигнал очень и очень сложно, при этом такие новинки способны не просто обнаруживать, сопровождать и давать целеуказание, но и различать силуэт цели, определять ее тип визуально. Для ракет Пэтриот 300 км не самое сложное расстояние, шансов уцелеть у самолета АВАКС не было никаких. В настоящее время оцеплено место падения самолета, всех зевак и журналистов выгнали, по центральным федеральным телевизионным каналам прошла команда говорить только о пожаре и больше ничего. Подобных машин в российской армии было не более 10 на момент вторжения в Украину. Восполнять очень сложно, нужен самолет и более 15 тонн электронно комплектной базы, которая в осноаном делается не в РФ.
Meanwhile Baza reported earlier (google translate) "According to preliminary data, two aircraft were shot down in the sky over the Krasnodar Territory.
One of them is a UAV. Data on the second aircraft is being clarified."
A UAV (or operators thinking there was one) could explain the SAM fire
💥 Мінус А-50У ― ГУР та Повітряні Сили збили черговий літак рф 🤝 У результаті спільної операції Головного управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України та Повітряних Сил ЗСУ над Азовським морем збили черговий цінний російський літак А-50У. 🔗 https://t.co/XCddds5IaN
Ukrainska Pravda has pictures of foreign components from #DPRK KN-23/KN-24 fired at #Ukraine. One pictured is a NXP LPC1759FBD80: A cortex M3 MCU available for a few dollars each in thousand quantities (https://www.nxp.com/part/LPC1759FBD80#/). You are not realistically going to prevent a nation state from obtaining stuff like that
Others:
Siemens V23079A1005B301 ($2 relay https://octopart.com/v23079a1005b301-siemens-8180234)
XP Power JTC0424S15 ($25 DC/DC converter https://www.mouser.com/ProductDetail/XP-Power/JTC0424S15/?qs=w%2Fv1CP2dgqqBM%2FjLtq3a6g%3D%3D)
Fairchild MM74HC244WM (< $1 buffer)
Analog Devices AD2S1205YSTZ (~$25 ADC)
NSK roller bearing (not sure exact part but I bet you can order it at your local auto parts store)
Chance of stopping DPRK from having a front order that stuff in 3rd countries seems like… zero
Find the best pricing for Siemens V23079A1005B301 by comparing bulk discounts from 5 distributors. Octopart is the world's source for V23079A1005B301 availability, pricing, and technical specs and other electronic parts.
Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Su-34
'An "individual error" resulted in a call between high-ranking German military officers being leaked… "The call was held via Webex videoconferencing software, hosted on German army servers, but "not all participants adhered to the secure dial-in procedure as required," Pistorius said.'
Yeah, nah, if you can dial into your classified Webex from a regular line and there isn't a big red flashing warning, that's a policy and/or technology failure too https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-conversation-leak/
An "individual error" resulted in a call between high-ranking German military officers being leaked after one officer joined the meeting from abroad via an insecure line, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at a press conference on March 5.
Oliver Stone's dictator documentary buddy seems charming "Lopatonok declined to answer specific questions on the financing of his earlier films, or how the proposed documentaries with Stone would be financed. After an increasingly combative Lopatonok threatened journalists and their sources, shouting “we’re going after you personally,” and “we’re going to destroy you,” an OCCRP editor ended the interview"
"Asked in an interview with OCCRP why he was focusing his lens on autocrats, Lopatonok said he was simply making movies about his personal heroes"
Points for honestly, I guess? 🤔
Russians tapped into a discussion of German generals discussing a possible Taurus strike on the Crimean bridge. Here is a full translation.
Couple interesting bits: "The limiting factor is the number of Su-24s left, which would be in the single digits"
[not totally clear but limit under discussion seems to relate to how many you'd need to be able to launch in a salvo for enough to get through. But given the timelines discussed, F-16s might change that in relatively short order]
On planning around AD "…because KSA [German military intelligence unit] doesn’t have a clear representation of where all the air defense systems are located.
But the Ukrainians have that, hopefully. Because from what I see with us, only the radar device is shown. But for us to have a clear plan, we really need to look at where the radar and launch devices are located"
Russia experimenting with wire guided FPV drones? 🤔 Seems limiting, but maybe OK for defensive positions and ambushes. Also shouldn't be too hard to make one that can cut the fiber and fall back to radio if it gets snagged or reaches the range limit, limiting the window for detection and EW disruption
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-now-looks-to-be-using-wire-guided-kamikaze-drones-in-ukraine
In the two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has forcibly deported thousands of Ukrainian children. While the total number of these deported minors is unknown, Kyiv has reported nearly 20,000. After the children are separated from their families and taken to Russia, the Russian authorities begin working to make them forget about their home country, telling them that their parents aren’t coming to get them and that Russia is their home. To learn how this system works, Meduza special correspondent Lilia Yapparova studied thousands of documents and spoke with employees from Russia’s Education Ministry, the main agency responsible for these “reeducation” measures.
If you wondered how #Ukraine ended up with two broadly similar attack #USV families (#Magura and #SeaBaby), according to this story: "Disputes over quality control, budget, and design specifications between the SBU and the [Magura] developer disrupted the program in 2022, leading the SBU to sever ties and start an independent naval drone project that later resulted in Sea Baby USV … The ousted company then partnered with [HUR]"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/14/magura-v5-naval-drones-to-get-anti-air-and-dive-capabilities/
Ukraine's Magura V5 naval drones, successful in sinking Russian ships, aim for upgrades to improve defense against Russian attack helicopters and ship armament during suicide missions, enhancing their capabilities in challenging Russia's Black Sea Fleet dominance.
"During the [prisoner] exchanges, we conduct a survey of those released from captivity and ask if they have seen representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross. So far, there has been not one positive response"
(Ukraine does grant ICRC regular access to the POWs they hold)
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, most major Western fast-food chains closed up shop, sold off assets, and exited the Russian market. This was particularly true of the highly visible food sector. Major Western food and drink chains, including McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Starbucks, KFC, Pizza Hut, Hard Rock Cafe, and the Jamie Oliver Group, have all since left Russia. A small cohort of six American fast-food chains decided otherwise. The franchises of Subway, Carl’s Jr., Papa John’s, Costa
Russia and India had signed a deal to buy five squadrons of the S-400 air defence system, of which three have already been supplied, while the remaining two could not be supplied on time due to developing situations in view of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is still ongoing.
Russia has vetoed a U.N. resolution in a move that effectively abolishes the monitoring by United Nations experts of U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program, though the sanctions themselves remain in place. Russia’s vote prompted Western accusations that Moscow was acting to shield its weapons purchases from North Korea for use in its war against Ukraine, in violation of sanctions. The Security Council resolution sponsored by the United States would have extended the mandate of the panel for a year, but Russia’s veto will halt its operations. Russia's U.N. ambassador says Western nations are trying to “strangle” North Korea and sanctions have proven “irrelevant” and “detached from reality” in reining in its nuclear program.
"Most of the drones that attacked Russian oil refineries have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, but now there are models that can fly over 1000 km," Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
"This is most probably an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, a Ukrainian-produced light aircraft, equipped with an additional fuel tank and a remote control system."
Hard to be sure from the video, but certainly looks plausible
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1775054471875162428
Russians recovering the wreckage of the Ukrainian drone Liutyi after an attack on a refinery in Tatarstan Read more about Ukraine's long-range one-way attack drone Liutyi in our recent article: https://t.co/GhxwzIrF2d 📹via https://t.co/Kry3ntAdZy
Ukrainska Pravda has claimed pictures of the #UAV #Ukraine used to strike Yelabuga. To my eye it doesn't look much like an Aeroprakt A-22: Fuselage is much boxier, empennage and wing struts are different (struts look like a copy/paste from a Citabria).
Anyway, >3000 km and 300 kg payload should give Russian AD planners some interesting dilemmas
/2. I don’t think that the E-300 specifically was used to attack targets on the territory of Tatarstan. Since the tail section of the unknown drone was much slimmer than that of the E-300. But the example of the E-300 shows how approximately an A-22 already modified into a…
Best guess would be if you made a sled gear version, you'd need two versions. One for training, one for the one way trip downrange.
Given the speeds involved, it probably doesn't make much difference in range.
But again, just speculation.
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert
John Timaeus