mjt

“FBI data…found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961 […]

“Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded…and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

“Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.”

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/people-think-crime-rate-up-actually-down-rcna129585

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong.

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data. Yet 77% of Americans think crime is rising.

NBC News
Dec 16, 2023 at 5:20pmWeb
Show threadJames B Toy 🧸Dec 16, 2023
@mjt overall crime numbers may be down, but of the crimes occuring, they're becoming more violent than ever. Mass shootings and smash and grab robberies are prime examples. There may be fewer crime victims, but the degree of trauma from crime is increasing.
Show threadmjtDec 24, 2023
@MrToyMRY Is that your impression or is there a source/study I’ve missed? There are relatively few smash-and/grabs or mass shootings compared to the mass of crimes, petty or felony.
Show threadGene ShackmanDec 25, 2023
@mjt @MrToyMRY Finding data is always a good idea.
Show threadRaleigh StraightDec 16, 2023

@mjt "Crime is rising" is just “white people feel threatened.” By what? Anything not centered on, and primarily beneficial to, white people. Of course.

The dishonest howling of retailers about shoplifting—which happened in San Franscisco because the DA was investigating corruption, so she had to go—probably hasn't helped.

Show threadaardvarkDec 26, 2023
@RaleighStraight he
Show threadJBDec 24, 2023
@mjt H.L.Mencken once said crime wave stories are easy to cook up. Just have a cub reporter copy out all the entries in the local precinct’s daybook and run it with a page one doomsday headline.
Show threadFlip them allDec 25, 2023
@JBShakerman @mjt Our local fox and Sinclair affiliates seem to have a mandate to spend most of their ‘newscasts’ on crime reporting. It’s no wonder that viewers feel frightened.
Show threadUtility NerdDec 24, 2023
@mjt
In no one's defense, crime did rise during the pandemic, perhaps because of the massive anxiety and trauma in a nation that can't acknowledge it has unresolved anxiety and trauma from 22 years ago. And now we've gone back to not addressing it again because things are easier yay!
Show threadAndreaTvilling🙃🏳️‍⚧️🌈🌻🇺🇦🇪🇺Dec 25, 2023
@UtilityNerd @mjt or maybe because nation-wise US was not prepared for pandemic and started to "resolve" it with breaking rules which are put as control in wrong place? maybe more policies solving social issues would direct humans in right direction? like, for example, instead of mass incarceration (to bribe own clout with capital in private jails) to distinguish actual criminals and neurodiverse folks? and former going to _public_ jails while latter getting social and/or medical support? oh yes, as bonus less fat for fat cats, huh?
Show threadUtility NerdDec 25, 2023

@aytvill @mjt
No, no, that's crazy talk, surely the fact that we don't take care of our own citizens has no impact on our society.

Oh wait.

Show threadPhoto Ewen 📷Dec 25, 2023

@mjt

To be fair we're still learning about all the crime taking place in the White House around 2016 so that definitely leave an impression of lawlessness.

Show threadChristineSaysHiDec 25, 2023
@mjt I suspect there are few votes in falling crime rates!
Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mjt “property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961”

I find this one very hard to believe. I wonder how good the data is and how property crime has changed.

For example, our carjackings (mostly due to cars being harder to steal when parked) are down but still a long distance from 2010.

So crime is definitely down but that claim seems unlikely.

Show threadSouprMattDec 25, 2023
@jgordon @mjt This is an example of how “news” convinced you of something. When you see the actual facts, you can’t force your mind to believe them.
Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14 @mjt

I've been around long enough to see many examples of surprising numbers that turn out, on closer inspection, to be meaningless.

Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14

The institute of justice says a property crime is "In a property crime, a victim's property is stolen or destroyed, without the use or threat of force against the victim. Property crimes include burglary and theft as well as vandalism and arson."

So while car theft was a property crime, carjacking is not. A shift from car theft to carjacking reduces property crime...

Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14

... but the rate of auto theft, a mixture of property and violent crime, can increase. As the author says -- "every category of major crime except auto theft declined."

That's just a quick scan. I won't bother digging deeper. Surprising numbers often reveal other surprises.

Show threadFreediverXDec 25, 2023
@mjt @jeff
Ironic, considering the mainstream media's false narrative about crime is a key reason behind that misunderstanding (yes, including NBC).
Show threadBecca 🏳️‍⚧️ 🇺🇦 🇸🇩 🇵🇸Dec 25, 2023
@mjt the issue hits us here in Europe too. And it's not just "politicians will lie", it's more about why would people believe them?
Until you remember how rampantly racist and xenophobic they are...
Show threadSouprMattDec 25, 2023
@mjt Hilarious that NBC news posts this with no sense of irony. Do they watch their own broadcasts? Gee I wonder why people think crime is high!
Show threadUltra Verified 🇺🇦 🇬🇱Dec 25, 2023

@mjt

Every violent crime committed by a non-white person is certain to have a photo of the perpetrator and an instant minibio that outlines woke left wing radicalization or ties to Islam.

Because irrational fear is all that Republicans have.

Show threadSeán FenianDec 25, 2023
@mjt A misconception which major news media outlets are actively making worse...
Show threadGene ShackmanDec 25, 2023
@mjt It is telling that the party which has the highest percent believing wrongly is the Republican party. Almost all Republicans believe, wrongly, that crime is rising.
Show threadNicky🦨✌️Dec 25, 2023
@mjt sensationalism sells. For example a local SoCal station reported a “manhunt” for a man who stole “thousands of dollars” of merchandise from sephora including tom ford, dior and gucci fragrances. That’s like four or five bottles.
The media may be the worst business of our time.
Show threadmike bayer  Dec 25, 2023
@mjt is there any chance that because people can watch high speed, high volume TikTok video streams as well as other similar ones like those in Facebook /Instagram etc, algorithmically designed to maximize clicks, views, reaction, and outrage, and of course an enormous number of video creators / curators entering the mix like never before, all shooting for the same goal as the algorithm, involved with this perception?
Show threadJoe Hill 🇵🇸🇺🇦Dec 25, 2023
@mjt #PropagandaWorks
Show threadWoodswalkedDec 25, 2023
@mjt
Fundamental disconnect.
The polls didn’t say ‘crime rate excluding those made by politicians, law enforcement, corporations, and media.’
So… Americans are right. Crime is up.
Just not the crimes self reported by police and sent to the FBI.
Show threadlegraLeGraDec 25, 2023

@mjt @queenofnewyork

If you read the report they reference:
https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent

It shows that crime spiked in 2020-2. Was the spike the anomaly? Or are we now in the anomaly. Murders and crimes in general are still higher than in 2019.

Most likely, people remember what things were like pre-covid as their baseline.

Moreover, if you did a regression of murders over the 55-yr period— they ARE increasing. Crime in general seems like a small/no trend.

The NBC headline is misleading.

Crime in 2023: Murder Plummeted, Violent and Property Crime Likely Fell Nationally

These trends stand in sharp contrast with polling showing 3 in 4 Americans think crime rose this year.

Jeff-alytics
Show threadQueen of AnxietyDec 25, 2023
@atthenius @mjt not all crime is murder. I bet if we had sensible gun control the murder numbers would be more in line with all the other crime. So no, the headline isn’t misleading, you’re just focusing on one type of crime.
Show threadlegraLeGraDec 25, 2023

@queenofnewyork @mjt

Actually— I am focusing on the fact that they calculate the rate from year-to-year variability instead of looking at the trend.

Perhaps a decadal trend would be appropriate. Crime trend looks pretty flat to me — I’d have to pull the data myself to put numbers on that.

You’re right: the effectiveness of guns as killing machines is almost certainly the reason the murder trend positive.

Thankfully the covid-crime-spike seems to be coming to an end. Wish covid would too.

Show threadBoredomFestivalDec 26, 2023
@mjt Crime may be down nationwide but where I live (Oakland CA) property crime is by far the highest it's been in 25 years