mjtDec 16, 2023

“FBI data…found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961 […]

“Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded…and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

“Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.”

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/people-think-crime-rate-up-actually-down-rcna129585

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong.

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data. Yet 77% of Americans think crime is rising.

NBC News
Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mjt “property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961”

I find this one very hard to believe. I wonder how good the data is and how property crime has changed.

For example, our carjackings (mostly due to cars being harder to steal when parked) are down but still a long distance from 2010.

So crime is definitely down but that claim seems unlikely.

Show threadSouprMatt
@jgordon @mjt This is an example of how “news” convinced you of something. When you see the actual facts, you can’t force your mind to believe them.
Dec 25, 2023 at 3:32pmWeb
Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14 @mjt

I've been around long enough to see many examples of surprising numbers that turn out, on closer inspection, to be meaningless.

Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14

The institute of justice says a property crime is "In a property crime, a victim's property is stolen or destroyed, without the use or threat of force against the victim. Property crimes include burglary and theft as well as vandalism and arson."

So while car theft was a property crime, carjacking is not. A shift from car theft to carjacking reduces property crime...

Show threadJohn GordonDec 25, 2023

@mls14

... but the rate of auto theft, a mixture of property and violent crime, can increase. As the author says -- "every category of major crime except auto theft declined."

That's just a quick scan. I won't bother digging deeper. Surprising numbers often reveal other surprises.