If you want some background on where we're at right now, check out the English-language coverage I have linked to here;

https://ngmx.com/@sindarina/111456515682317309

The main difference being that he’s now at 37 seats total, which means an increase from the exit polls.

This is not the definitive result, and most of the districts counted so far skew right, while we're still waiting for final counts in the bigger cities, which tend to skew left.

But it sucks either way. Wilders now gets to have the first shot at putting together a coalition, and whether he’ll succeed wholly depends on whether other right wing parties will say yes.

#NLpol

2/ 🧵

And there's a pretty significant chance that they will indeed want to govern with him. A three-party coalition of PVV, VVD, and NSC already has enough seats for a majority in the House, and adding BBB to the mix would give them a decent chunk of the Senate, too.

Which means that whether Wilders gets to rule mostly depends on assholes with similar agendas thinking this is one bridge too far for them 😒

Right now I would be wholly unsurprised if the VVD ditched Yesilgöz if she doesn't want to cooperate, and went whole hog. This is, after all, the party of Klaas Dijkhoff and Stef Blok.

#NLpol

3/ 🧵

Just watch how both VVD and NSC will, just like BBB already has, pull some sort of "we cannot ignore the will of this many voters” excuse to unexpectedly find it within themselves to find a 'compromise' that works for them, when it's really just them giving in to what they were all along.

I hope the unlikely will happen, but even if it balances out a bit more than it looks like right now, once the final results are known, this still means that a significant chunk of Dutch voters looked at the lies peddled by the right, compared it with actual problem solving on the left, and went “You know what? We'll take the lies.”

#NLpol

4/ 🧵

Don't fall for the frame that this is somehow the working class voter being misled by politicians, assisted by the media, something that could be fixed if we just had done more to educate them about the truth, by the way.

While there certainly are voters who fell for the 'a milder Wilders’ act, even those people went for it because they feel they deserve a country in which they can be bigoted assholes without being confronted about it.

They want to make racist, sexist, and -phobic jokes. They want to run around in blackface. They want to shit on the Other and bond with their peers over it, instead of being excluded.

#NLpol

5/ 🧵

THAT is the promise; to restore the times when they could be white as fuck and not get in trouble for it. An end to 'woke ideology’ and ‘cancel culture’.

Or, in Dutch; ze willen weer potenrammen. Ze willen weer jodenkoeken en negerzoenen. Wees weer een echte vent!

The appeal is whiteness for whites only. It is toxic masculinity, and taking without consent.

That is what this is about. It's only a good deal later that some of them realise that their problems aren't being solved, and that blaming the Other isn't helping.

And that is true in all strata of society, not just the working class.

#NLpol

6/ 🧵

Oh, and by the way, little tidbit that I keep forgetting about; Geert Wilders is his party, and his party is him. He is the only member of it, and rules supreme.

He wants to abolish the first article of the Dutch constitution, which deals with equality before the law, and prohibits discrimination.

This is the guy who came up with the ‘Polenmeldpunt’, a hotline for reporting supposed misbehaviour by Eastern European workers and migrants, and the ‘kopvoddentaks’ (head rag tax);

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_rag_tax

And he's been at this for almost 20 years now.

#NLpol

7/ 🧵

Quick bit of free analysis for Lilian Marijnissen, who seems unsure why the Socialist Party lost again under her leadership; it's because you once again tried to appeal to white workers who would rather vote for Wilders instead, whenever they get an opening.

That, much more than any sort of strategic vote, it why you lost. There is no room for a PVV Lite on the left when the real deal can be had on the right.

Stop trying to horseshoe your way into it.

#NLpol

8/ 🧵

I feel sorry for the Moroccan-Dutch folks who have to put up with the “My friends and colleagues are all Moroccan-Dutch. I am not voting against them, but for myself. I just want an affordable home and lower prices.” type of nonsense on display in this regional news article that puts the white sentiment of PVV voters front and center.

You had a ton of options if affordable housing and healthcare was your prime concern. Yet you picked the most racist islamophobe possible 🙄

Journalist doesn't challenge it, of course, they're just out there in some random town to get a few choice quotes 😒

https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/328140/ook-in-oostzaan-behaalt-pvv-grote-overwinning-eindelijk-naar-ons-geluisterd

#NLpol

9/ 🧵

Meanwhile, Omtzigt is still avoiding the question of whether he will cooperate with Wilders, spouting some vague nonsense about oaths to uphold the constitution and whatnot, claiming that, with 20 seats, Nationaal Socialistisch Contract cannot say 'no' right away.

Yet Timmermans did right away, removing any and all doubt of a coalition that has both PVV and GroenLinks/PvdA in it.

Funny how that works, eh? 🤔

https://nos.nl/collectie/13958/liveblog/2498920-vvd-initiatief-ligt-bij-pvv-en-nsc-omtzigt-geeft-nog-geen-uitsluitsel-over-pvv#UPDATE-container-73615695

#NLpol

10/ 🧵

Another interesting Omtzigt factoid that I just learned about; apparently he, along with some of his top folks, voted in favour of the 'gedoogconstructie’ deal that VVD and CDA made with Wilders for the first Rutte cabinet, back when Omtzigt was still a member of the CDA.

It's kind of nauseating to see Omtzigt salivating over the prospects of governing with Wilders, all because the man who shit on everything for the past two decades promised not to shit on him this time 🙄

The only way you can afford to be that naive is when your goals align with fash trash like this 😒

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/23/dat-wilders-zei-dat-hij-van-plan-is-zich-aan-de-grondwet-te-houden-maakte-omtzigt-heel-blij-a4182098

#NLpol

11/ 🧵

This is how much of a circus this is; BBB arriving by tractor, and Kees van der fucking Staaij, former leader of the far right fundamentalist christian SGP, tipped as the 'verkenner’?! 😂

What a bunch of fucking clowns, sheesh. I bet Claas was very happy to provide enough matching tractors for this marketing stunt by the agribusiness party.

It would be funny if this wasn't about actual governance that impacts the entire country 😒

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/party-leaders-meet-in-the-hague-as-cabinet-making-process-starts/

#NLpol

12/ 🧵

By the way, if you see images of Geert Wilders with his cats, remember that this is a trick straight from the Nazi playbook.

#NLpol

13/ 🧵

Meanwhile, the circus continues, with a PVV senator who used to describe the Dutch parliament as 'fake’ being accepted as 'verkenner’, the person whose job it is to scout for possible coalitions by talking with all party leaders.

The Dutch house leader, Vera Bergkamp, sees no problem with this, and considers him to have 'sufficient distance’ 🙄

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/pvv-draagt-senator-gom-van-strien-voor-als-verkenner-a4182157

Oh, and VVD leader Yesilgöz is backpedaling further, now saying that the VVD will not be part of any coalition;

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/vvds-yesilgoz-says-no-but-will-prop-up-a-wilders-led-cabinet/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/outgoing-netherlands-pms-party-rules-out-geert-wilders-coalition

#NLpol

14/ 🧵

Here's some English-language analysis putting this into context among the rest of these fuckers across Europe;

"Geert Wilders’ shock victory in the Dutch general election confirms the upward trajectory of Europe’s populist and far-right parties, which – with the occasional setback – are continuing their steady march into the mainstream.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-victory-confirms-upward-trajectory-of-far-right-in-europe

#DontPayTheGuardian #NLpol

15/ 🧵

Oh, and if you see names like ‘Henk' and ‘Ingrid’ used in coverage of Dutch politics, they are the supposed 'regular folks’, which basically means you should think of them as the Chads, Beckies, and Karens you already know from elsewhere.

‘Decent' white folks who are appalled that you would think of them as racist, but who will happily vote racists into power.

The arch-conservative asshole who just got the coalition scout job refers to them unironically as the victims of ‘climate hysteria’, immigrants, and so forth.

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/verkenner-gom-van-strien-zeer-rechts-in-de-leer-a4182213

#NLpol

16/ 🧵

Oh, and while we're on the topic of ecofascists in the PVV, enter Dion Graus, the asshole who votes in favour of proposals dealing with animal rights, but is known as an abuser of women.

Wilders is still fine with him being in the party, while the BBB, the agribusiness marketing party, is flagging his animal rights record as a potential problem for a coalition with the PVV, because protecting animals is bad for business;

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/bbb-wil-best-met-pvv-maar-dan-wel-zonder-dat-zielige-dieren-beleid-a4182202

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dion_Graus

#NLpol

17/ 🧵

"Across the street, Hasan Jakh, a recently arrived immigrant from Turkey, confessed he had voted for Wilders, driven by his frustration over the lack of affordable housing. 'It's stupid that he's so Islamophobic,' he said. ‘But for the rest, he's great.'"

Meanwhile, a reminder that some Muslims would rather vote for a rabidly pro-Israeli apartheid asshole who openly hates them than for a party that would actually solve that housing problem, but also supports a woman's right to choose, LGBTQI+ rights, and so forth.

We see you, and your excuses 🙄

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-dutch-election-win-rotterdam-scary

#NLpol
#DontPayTheGuardian

18/ 🧵

By the way, if you think all of this sounds bad, it’s worse. I just finished listening to a podcast episode in which someone made a convincing argument that Wilders will basically make Omtzigt an offer he cannot refuse, simply by giving him everything he wants.

Wilders loses nothing, with that move, and Omtzigt will be tickled pink. Until the shit hits the fan, and Omtzigt finds out he’s been the useful dupe all along.

Add BBB, who are eager as fuck, add VVD in a support role, and Wilders gets to play the game from the rear, masking his weaknesses, by having the others take the fall when it inevitably blows up.

19/ 🧵

#NLpol

I’m poking at the NOS election results app to look at voter movements; people who did one thing in 2021, and now did something else, including those who didn't vote then, and did now, or vice versa.

The interesting thing about the Animal Party (PvdD) vote is that the 'strategic vote’ was much less impactful than some of their fans seem to think; instead of their loss being explained by people voting for GroenLinks/PvdA, their biggest loss (25%) was people who just didn't vote this time, and more voters went to PVV and NSC (8% each, 16% combined) than to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2023/

20/ 🧵

#NLpol

Heck, they're even trading voters with Thierry Baudet's party, FvD, for some reason, and with JA21, one of the FvD offshoots. I guess they still haven't rooted out the ecofascists in their midst 😒

The SP vote tells a similar story, by the way; more of their 2021 voters went to PVV (16%) and NSC (16%), or one-third total, than went to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

The changes for BIJ1 are difficult to spot in this data, because they were such a small party, but it looks like 2% of the GroenLinks/PvdA vote came from there, and 6% of the PvdD vote.

(Edited because percentages led to faulty assumptions on my part)

21/ 🧵

#NLpol

These voter movement graphs are based on a parallel poll performed by IPSOS, so if we want to draw conclusions about the impact of the strategic vote on BIJ1, we need to look at the actual voting data, which is also available further down on this page.

BIJ1 almost halved, going from 86.481 votes in 2021 to 43.887 this week, with 99,8% of the vote counted.

2% of the GroenLinks/PvdA vote would be around 32.400 votes, and 6% of the PvdD vote would be around 13.900 votes, which is more than the delta, but if the balance holds, it is not unlikely that about two-thirds of it was due to the 'strategic vote’ 🤔

22/ 🧵

#NLpol