Reed MidekeLong thread on the impacts of the Kakhovka dam destruction three months on
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099
David Helms on X
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵 Outline:
LOL, war criminal / erstwhile DPR puppet regime member Girkin's fans alleging rigged elections: "Affiliates of imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin claimed that Russian officials falsified all electoral results in Nakhodka, Primorsky Krai, and attacked an independent candidate in Saratov, Saratov Oblast" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10. Geolocated footage posted on September 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Novoprokopivka (18km
UK government claims "Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August… intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port" 🤨
Short of direct knowledge of the intended target from HUMINT or SIGINT, how would you know the target was the ship vs shore infrastructure?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-intelligence-shows-russias-targeting-of-a-cargo-ship
Starlink outage (https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1701772439506894964) and Sevastopol shipyard on fire at approximately the same time
(almost certainly unrelated, but somewhat funny in light of recent news)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1701774908403904799
TASS report on the #Ukraine #Sevastopol strike is unusually straightforward. States it was a "Ukrainian strike", and a "non-civilian" object is on fire. Bit of reassuring propaganda at the end "authorities assure that there is no danger to civilian objects in the city" but presumably referring to the fire, not the whole "city being targeted by missiles and drones in an ongoing war" thing
They do neglect to mention that the "non-civilian object" likely includes a large warship https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1701798722235965827
Fires resulting from the #Ukraine #Sevastopol strike were big and long lasting enough to show up on NASA FIRMS
On day 566 of his three day Special Military Operation, Putin is begging North Korea for artillery shells while a couple Black Sea fleet ships burn. Truly a master strategist!
Enforcing sanctions on common dual use electronics is extremely hard: "In cases where Russia needs millions of one particular component, export controls can grind production to a halt. But the chips needed to make a couple of hundred cruise missiles would fit into a few backpacks"
Cayman Islands flagged Puma (IMO 9748265) successfully exited #Ukraine's unilateral Black Sea corridor https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9748265
First ships to use #Ukraine's corridor inbound have reached Chornomorsk: Palau flagged RESILIENT AFRICA (IMO 9257204) and AROYAT (IMO 9151395)
Russia's Black Sea fleet has notably had other things competing for attention recently
People are flagging this from Blinken as a reversal of the "don't use US weapons on Russian soil" as a major policy change but I suspect it's gonna get a walk back in the next news cycle. Would be very odd to roll out a change that big with an answer in a press conference https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-says-its-up-to-ukraine-how-to-use-us-provided-weapons/
Blinken says it's up to Ukraine how to use US-provided weapons
While Washington "does not encourage nor enable" Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapon systems outside of the country, it is "fundamentally" Kyiv's decision how to use those weapons, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said at a press conference.
Do they really think people who (unreasonably, IMO) made loud unhappy noises after some humvees and MRAPS crossed a couple km into Belgorod are gonna like, "we don't support it but if they ATACMS the Kremlin that's their choice"
More like Rostov-undone #Subtoot https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/18/7420313/
NYT matches (without citing, natch) CIT's reporting that the Kostiantynivka strike was most likely a failed Ukrainian missile, tracing it to a specific Buk launched around that time
#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html?unlocked_article_code=mdNpTg3Bkjv9j1IZFI7KQz3iALTTn4OtQ5fXP0R74AqZo-XoUehKgzPRYFuIL11Gsu5LmmFM1pWXJ75zLJ7Te9PuxUk6PSmFTB23VwuGNKw-i1QFqUEZsZCGyKM2r9ycwNcX2_Gmauz08Xdv_CggzDTeHeCkmTIsHPCLTivBAKqKSDToIl8gQCleGg1gE2JyxEvRq33qoa1bAJe2h9sEimKLEGQXXhHqfmgGnKbcn8Cx4LE7WqFGFEP8lMi3Jfr1X2WMYq93_Hh-Mrfrm-xXTIUqR-YFg0PzYSu70JbWyjJzvyQujSTrz9M7biPrWvZKCYVBOd10sgLc3ktQOFwfzts6aCrG-LhIeLtGzKrTF3Rottiq&smid=url-share
RESILIENT AFRICA, departing Chornomorsk
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9257204
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9257204
No tears lost for wagnerites or their RSF pals, but proliferation of these FPV drones seems like it could get ugly for a lot of people 😬 https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html
Also likely to be significantly more effective in places that aren't saturated with EW like the Ukraine front lines. Potential for assassination and terror attacks seems extremely high
Togo flagged SEAMA (IMO 7827328) damaged by a suspected mine in Danube delta area. Location seems more suggestive of a drifting stray than a deliberate attack
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-23/h_cbd816862c66d7862de3102b9e1e6212
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-23/h_cbd816862c66d7862de3102b9e1e6212
On day 573 of the three day special military operation, citizens are encouraged to install a drone attack reporting app. This is, no doubt, exactly according to plan
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/russia-app-drone-citizens-war/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/russia-app-drone-citizens-war/
Ukrainian soldier on Sudan FPV attacks https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1704930679027298525
"Pentagon exempts Ukraine operations from potential government shutdown" - Clearly the right choice, though as noted in the article, there would likely still be impacts
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/pentagon-exempts-ukraine-operations-from-shutdown-00117482
AROYAT (IMO 9151395) departing Chornomorsk, bound for Egypt with Ukrainian grain
Meanwhile, Liberian flagged ENEIDA (IMO 9198381) appears to be inbound to Chornomorsk
Latest US aid package to #Ukraine includes more Sidewinders, specifically "AIM-9M missiles for air defense", as well as "Avenger air defense systems". Once upon a time, there was a project to arm Avengers with AIM-9 🤔
On day 575 of the three day special military operation, everything is going according to plan at Black Sea fleet HQ in #Sevastopol (via https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/21260)
Budanov: "The second point in engaging defenses is that we’re making those holes in the overall air defense coverage. Those holes are exploited for other things" - Yeah, not a coincidence multiple high end air defense systems were hit leading up to the recent #Sevastopol strikes
On ATACMS (before today's reports US will deliver a "small number"): "I can say conditionally that if it's 100 missiles, this won’t change the situation" 🤨
Probably true in the sense damage inflicted isn't going to directly lead to a breakthrough, but it's pretty clear they've used Storm Shadow effectively, and even a small number of ATACMS would complement it
WaPo reports the cluster munition variant of ATACMS is likely to be provided, which would open up targets that aren't suited to Storm Shadow's big single warhead
#GiftArticle #GiftLink #ATACMS #Ukraine https://wapo.st/3EPtJ8Q
Turns out there were 3 ships in the latest inbound group, all arrived successfully: ENEIDA at Chornomorsk, YING HAO 01 and AZARA (IMO 9132492, Palau flagged) at Yuzhnyy https://twitter.com/OlKubrakov/status/1705126874198720763
Oleksandr Kubrakov on X
⛴️3 new cargo vessels are on the way to enter Chornomorsk and Pivdenij ports for loading export products. Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA is using temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian Navy in order to export 127K tones of agroproducts and iron ore for China…
If you wondered what former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin was up to, he's been appointed "senator" for occupied Zaporizhzhia. He was previously wounded in a hotel in Donetsk while cosplaying with the Russian army
Lot has been said about Russian's apathy about the war, but the number of sabotage attempts pretty remarkable (though few of these were successful)
"As calculated by the Zona Solidarnosti [Solidarity zone] Telegram channel, Russia has witnessed 310 partisan actions over the 19 months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine… most frequent incidents included draft office arson (128 cases) and railway sabotage (111 cases)"
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-22-24
"As calculated by the Zona Solidarnosti [Solidarity zone] Telegram channel, Russia has witnessed 310 partisan actions over the 19 months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine… most frequent incidents included draft office arson (128 cases) and railway sabotage (111 cases)"
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-22-24
Russian inflatable tank decoys in the field (from https://t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/725 via https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1706316927050584391). Could be a real challenge to spot in lower res imagery
Khorne Group.
Увага, насамперед тим, хто оператори дронів. На відео не танк ☝️ орків. Видає при всій реалістичності, відсутність накату. Це надувний, а швидше за все, що натягується на раму, макет-хибна ціль орків. Фальшивий як і вся їхня путінська порода. Будьте уважні, не витрачаєте боєкомплект марно. Їх зараз дедалі більше на полі бою. Attention, first of all, to those who are drone operators. On the video is not an orcs tank ☝️. With all realism, gives out lack of rolling. This is an inflatable, and most likely a frame-stretching mock-up of the orcs. Fake like all their Putin breed. Be careful, do not spend the ammunition in vain. There are more and more of them on the battlefield now.
Today's CIT report covers a different kind of decoy: Camo nets with radar reflectors https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-22-25
More footage of #Ukraine testing "Marichka" (semi?) submersible #USV. Not obvious what power source or control system is, no obvious snorkel, cameras, or antenna 🤔
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-develops-a-kamikaze-underwater-drone-to-hit-russian-bridges-and-warships-video/?swcfpc=1
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-develops-a-kamikaze-underwater-drone-to-hit-russian-bridges-and-warships-video/?swcfpc=1
Right after posting that, I see The War Zone has similar questions "There are no clear indications that its propulsion system is air-breathing, which could point to strictly battery power" and "Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels use a mix of satellite-assisted navigation and terminal targeting via electro-optical and infrared cameras to hit their mark… Similar kinds of guidance and targeting capabilities might be a challenge for Marichka"
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-at-ukraines-marichka-submarine-drone
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-at-ukraines-marichka-submarine-drone
Russia now painting Tu-95s on the apron at Engels. Seems unlikely to confuse many ISR or targeting systems, but I guess it's cheap 🤔 https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/tu-95-decoys-are-being-painted-on-russian-air-bases-apron
🤨 Reported details of that Ukrainian Aug 24 raid on Cape Tarkhankut, claiming "commandos traveled covertly across the Black Sea on jet skis" and destroyed an electronic warfare station which "had thwarted drone strikes and tracked British Storm Shadow missiles"
🤨 "Russian sources claimed that Ukraine fired two “Hrim-2” missiles at occupied Crimea on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defense shot down two “Hrim-2” missiles over Dzhankoy, and that some debris fell on the Dzhankoy area"
Have been various claims and rumors about Hrіm-2 / Grom but I'm gonna wait for launch photos or significant debris before I put much stock in it
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically
Ah, we now have the official story of Prigozhin's unfortunate accident. As Max Sedon reports: "Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on" https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1709984130207793279
"Also, 7 MiG-25s of the Russian Federation in non-working condition will be removed, which will be used for spare parts for Ukrainian combat aircraft" 🤨
What could you scavenge off a Foxbat that would be useful on Ukraine's current fleet?
Автомобілі, вагони, літаки: схвалено проєкт рішення про примусове вилучення рухомого майна рф | Міністерство економіки України
Уряд схвалив проєкт Указу Президента України про введення в дію рішення РНБОУ щодо примусового вилучення майна держави-агресора та її резидентів. Проєкт документу передбачає вилучення понад 800 одиниц
"Zelenskiy’s government had guaranteed to compensate owners if a ship was sunk" that uh, doesn't seem like much comfort from the crew, but "[deputy minister responsible for seaports and maritime] Vaskovv said crew members using the route were not scared 'They told me they had visited other places around the world that have seen war. Their boats are not military targets'" 🤨
On day 600 of the three day special military operation, everything is going according to plan: RU air force affiliated fighterbomber telegram reports "One of the most serious strikes of all time in the SMO"
(losses they report tend to be real, though I wouldn't put much stock in the ATACMS claim without additional evidence)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714165868316299322
There is (or was) a large helicopter base at Berdyansk airport, just out of HIMARS GMLRS range, which was reportedly attacked earlier today https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1707847715789672710
Also reportedly in Luhansk.
I kind of would have expected delivery of ATACMS to be announced at least very shortly before the first use, but possible the widely reported approval would be considered enough to manage escalation risks. Or some other system was used
Well, there's that answered. Notably puts almost all the fixed wing bases in Crimea at risk too https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1714313472979214807
CNN reports "the US decided in recent weeks to send them quietly because they wanted to take the Russians by surprise"
Appears to be a rather successful balance of messaging and deception. It was widely reported that ATACMS had been approved in principle and would be sent soon, but US and Ukraine gave the impression the final paperwork wasn't done, and the Russians apparently decided to put off relocating to the last minute
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/us-ukraine-long-range-atacm-missiles/index.html
Appears to be a rather successful balance of messaging and deception. It was widely reported that ATACMS had been approved in principle and would be sent soon, but US and Ukraine gave the impression the final paperwork wasn't done, and the Russians apparently decided to put off relocating to the last minute
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/us-ukraine-long-range-atacm-missiles/index.html
"Vladimir Rogov, the Russian-appointed governor of the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region, said air defence systems "successfully intercepted enemy rockets" over Berdyansk"
Stored ammunition and parked helicopters bravely intercepted cluster munitions on the ground! https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67135163
AP reports
1) "Fewer than a dozen of the missiles got into Ukraine within the last few days"
2) "According to a U.S. official, the ones delivered to Ukraine have a maximum range of a bit more than 100 miles"
Now the Russian command gets to guess whether this is deception or indicative of future deliveries. If the US only delivers the ~160 km range M39, Sevastopol and most of the big air bases in Crimea are out of range
https://apnews.com/article/atacms-ukraine-longrange-missiles-5fd95f32449d14da22b82d57d6ccab22
Ukraine uses long-range US missiles against Russia for the first time
The United States has quietly delivered the long-range ballistic missiles Ukraine said it urgently needed, and Ukraine has started using them on the battlefield against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been pressing the U.S. to provide the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS. Their delivery to the warfront gives Ukraine a critical ability to strike Russian targets that are farther away, allowing Ukrainian forces to stay safely out of range.
Rybar claims a significant Ukrainian incursion across the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. IMO they aren't terribly reliable, probably something happening there but not necessarily as described. OTOH, you'd expect Ukraine to want to take advantage disruption caused by the arrival of ATACMS
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1714433456283791564
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1714433456283791564
ATACMS was reportedly used on both Berdyansk and Luhansk airports, but so far Russian on the ground accounts and other reporting has mostly been on the former. Satellite image analsys by twitter user Tatarigami_UA suggests Luhansk strike was also at least somewhat successful, but perhaps didn't trigger large fires and ammunition cook off like at Berdyansk
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/from-impact-to-assessment-the-luhansk
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/from-impact-to-assessment-the-luhansk
👀
"19.10.23. Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, Ukraine. Remember this date and place.
It was the biggest Russian disaster. Bigger than Bilogorivka last year."
FT with a twist on the sidewinder mystery: “Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence”
That might explain the oddly low number initially delivered by Canada
https://www.ft.com/content/69cf1288-0156-4b8f-a770-cacb05988596?shareType=nongift
(possibly paywall free if linked from this tweet https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1716673933938737554)
"Ramzan Kadyrov announced the completion of mustering for a new battalion, named after Sheikh Mansur [famous leader of the resistance against Russian imperialism during the 18th century]. The battalion will fight under the aegis of the Russian Ministry of Defense, despite a similarly named battalion already taking part in the war on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-oct-23-24-2023
NYT with various tidbits about the #Ukraine "FrankenSAM" effort, which is apparently now an umbrella term for various systems, including BUK + Sea Sparrow, AIM-9s paired with some unspecified radar, and "a Patriot missile and launching station that operates with Ukraine’s older, domestically made radar systems" 🤨
#Ukraine locally developed de-mining #UGV https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/29/kharkiv-oblast-receives-new-domestic-mine-clearance-vehicle/
ISW bringing the hard-hitting analysis you won't find anywhere else
"The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine… Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.
ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023
"The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine… Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.
ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ongoing antisemitic demonstrations in the Republic of Dagestan and elsewhere in the North Caucasus are highlighting heightened interethnic and interreligious tensions in Russia. Hundreds of demonstrators in Dagestan broke into Makhachkala airport,
simonbp@reedmideke Sergei wants to mount a Tumansky on his tractor. Says it will increase yields 50%.
Ben Brockert@reedmideke They could at least put some shadows in.
Have to also wonder if their drones have thermal now, inflatable tanks probably aren’t very convincing in the evening.
@wikkit Shadows are kinda tough since they'll be wrong most of the time, and when it's overcast
Drones that hit Pskov had thermal, they released footage. Those were claimed to be locally piloted though, haven't seen any details of how Ukraine's long range drones are targeted
@wikkit and yeah, Ukraine uses lots of thermal on the front lines, which would probably spot those inflatable tanks, but lots of units just have COTS camera drones. Both sides have also been reported to use heaters to make decoys more convincing in thermal