Reed Mideke
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-23/h_cbd816862c66d7862de3102b9e1e6212
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/russia-app-drone-citizens-war/
"Pentagon exempts Ukraine operations from potential government shutdown" - Clearly the right choice, though as noted in the article, there would likely still be impacts
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/pentagon-exempts-ukraine-operations-from-shutdown-00117482
Latest US aid package to #Ukraine includes more Sidewinders, specifically "AIM-9M missiles for air defense", as well as "Avenger air defense systems". Once upon a time, there was a project to arm Avengers with AIM-9 🤔
On day 575 of the three day special military operation, everything is going according to plan at Black Sea fleet HQ in #Sevastopol (via https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/21260)
Budanov: "The second point in engaging defenses is that we’re making those holes in the overall air defense coverage. Those holes are exploited for other things" - Yeah, not a coincidence multiple high end air defense systems were hit leading up to the recent #Sevastopol strikes
WaPo reports the cluster munition variant of ATACMS is likely to be provided, which would open up targets that aren't suited to Storm Shadow's big single warhead
#GiftArticle #GiftLink #ATACMS #Ukraine https://wapo.st/3EPtJ8Q
Oleksandr Kubrakov on X
⛴️3 new cargo vessels are on the way to enter Chornomorsk and Pivdenij ports for loading export products. Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA is using temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian Navy in order to export 127K tones of agroproducts and iron ore for China…
If you wondered what former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin was up to, he's been appointed "senator" for occupied Zaporizhzhia. He was previously wounded in a hotel in Donetsk while cosplaying with the Russian army
"As calculated by the Zona Solidarnosti [Solidarity zone] Telegram channel, Russia has witnessed 310 partisan actions over the 19 months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine… most frequent incidents included draft office arson (128 cases) and railway sabotage (111 cases)"
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-22-24
Khorne Group.
Увага, насамперед тим, хто оператори дронів. На відео не танк ☝️ орків. Видає при всій реалістичності, відсутність накату. Це надувний, а швидше за все, що натягується на раму, макет-хибна ціль орків. Фальшивий як і вся їхня путінська порода. Будьте уважні, не витрачаєте боєкомплект марно. Їх зараз дедалі більше на полі бою. Attention, first of all, to those who are drone operators. On the video is not an orcs tank ☝️. With all realism, gives out lack of rolling. This is an inflatable, and most likely a frame-stretching mock-up of the orcs. Fake like all their Putin breed. Be careful, do not spend the ammunition in vain. There are more and more of them on the battlefield now.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-develops-a-kamikaze-underwater-drone-to-hit-russian-bridges-and-warships-video/?swcfpc=1
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-at-ukraines-marichka-submarine-drone
🤨 Reported details of that Ukrainian Aug 24 raid on Cape Tarkhankut, claiming "commandos traveled covertly across the Black Sea on jet skis" and destroyed an electronic warfare station which "had thwarted drone strikes and tracked British Storm Shadow missiles"
🤨 "Russian sources claimed that Ukraine fired two “Hrim-2” missiles at occupied Crimea on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defense shot down two “Hrim-2” missiles over Dzhankoy, and that some debris fell on the Dzhankoy area"
Have been various claims and rumors about Hrіm-2 / Grom but I'm gonna wait for launch photos or significant debris before I put much stock in it
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically
Ah, we now have the official story of Prigozhin's unfortunate accident. As Max Sedon reports: "Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on" https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1709984130207793279
"Also, 7 MiG-25s of the Russian Federation in non-working condition will be removed, which will be used for spare parts for Ukrainian combat aircraft" 🤨
What could you scavenge off a Foxbat that would be useful on Ukraine's current fleet?
Автомобілі, вагони, літаки: схвалено проєкт рішення про примусове вилучення рухомого майна рф | Міністерство економіки України
Уряд схвалив проєкт Указу Президента України про введення в дію рішення РНБОУ щодо примусового вилучення майна держави-агресора та її резидентів. Проєкт документу передбачає вилучення понад 800 одиниц
"Zelenskiy’s government had guaranteed to compensate owners if a ship was sunk" that uh, doesn't seem like much comfort from the crew, but "[deputy minister responsible for seaports and maritime] Vaskovv said crew members using the route were not scared 'They told me they had visited other places around the world that have seen war. Their boats are not military targets'" 🤨
On day 600 of the three day special military operation, everything is going according to plan: RU air force affiliated fighterbomber telegram reports "One of the most serious strikes of all time in the SMO"
(losses they report tend to be real, though I wouldn't put much stock in the ATACMS claim without additional evidence)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714165868316299322
Also reportedly in Luhansk.
I kind of would have expected delivery of ATACMS to be announced at least very shortly before the first use, but possible the widely reported approval would be considered enough to manage escalation risks. Or some other system was used
Appears to be a rather successful balance of messaging and deception. It was widely reported that ATACMS had been approved in principle and would be sent soon, but US and Ukraine gave the impression the final paperwork wasn't done, and the Russians apparently decided to put off relocating to the last minute
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/us-ukraine-long-range-atacm-missiles/index.html
"Vladimir Rogov, the Russian-appointed governor of the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region, said air defence systems "successfully intercepted enemy rockets" over Berdyansk"
Stored ammunition and parked helicopters bravely intercepted cluster munitions on the ground! https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67135163
AP reports
1) "Fewer than a dozen of the missiles got into Ukraine within the last few days"
2) "According to a U.S. official, the ones delivered to Ukraine have a maximum range of a bit more than 100 miles"
Now the Russian command gets to guess whether this is deception or indicative of future deliveries. If the US only delivers the ~160 km range M39, Sevastopol and most of the big air bases in Crimea are out of range
https://apnews.com/article/atacms-ukraine-longrange-missiles-5fd95f32449d14da22b82d57d6ccab22
Ukraine uses long-range US missiles against Russia for the first time
The United States has quietly delivered the long-range ballistic missiles Ukraine said it urgently needed, and Ukraine has started using them on the battlefield against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been pressing the U.S. to provide the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS. Their delivery to the warfront gives Ukraine a critical ability to strike Russian targets that are farther away, allowing Ukrainian forces to stay safely out of range.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1714433456283791564
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/from-impact-to-assessment-the-luhansk
👀
"19.10.23. Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, Ukraine. Remember this date and place.
It was the biggest Russian disaster. Bigger than Bilogorivka last year."
FT with a twist on the sidewinder mystery: “Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence”
That might explain the oddly low number initially delivered by Canada
https://www.ft.com/content/69cf1288-0156-4b8f-a770-cacb05988596?shareType=nongift
(possibly paywall free if linked from this tweet https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1716673933938737554)
NYT with various tidbits about the #Ukraine "FrankenSAM" effort, which is apparently now an umbrella term for various systems, including BUK + Sea Sparrow, AIM-9s paired with some unspecified radar, and "a Patriot missile and launching station that operates with Ukraine’s older, domestically made radar systems" 🤨
"The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine… Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.
ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ongoing antisemitic demonstrations in the Republic of Dagestan and elsewhere in the North Caucasus are highlighting heightened interethnic and interreligious tensions in Russia. Hundreds of demonstrators in Dagestan broke into Makhachkala airport,
Huh "the Territorial Defense Forces, reported accepting 100,000 new recruits in the first 10 days of all-out war. The mass mobilization was fueled in part by the optimistic predictions of some senior officials that the war would be won in months if not weeks"
Did people actually believe that in March 2022?! 🤨
I don't recall seeing any optimistic predictions like that at the time
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
- Wonder how close they get, unless they're lobbing something like the wing kit glide bombs seems like it might be dicey with long range SAMs
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-warplanes-drop-explosives-black-sea-shipping-lanes-2023-11-01/
Ukraine says Russian warplanes drop explosives on Black Sea shipping lanes
Ukraine said on Wednesday Russian warplanes had dropped "explosive objects" into the likely paths of civilian vessels in the Black Sea three times in the last 24 hours, but that its fledgling shipping corridor was still operating.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-artist-who-used-supermarket-price-tags-criticise-ukraine-war-faces-2023-11-16/
Russian artist who used supermarket price tags to criticise Ukraine war faces verdict
A Russian artist who replaced supermarket price tags with messages calling for an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine is expected to learn her fate in court on Thursday with a state prosecutor asking for her to be jailed for eight years.
SIM card from Ukrainian telecom operator found inside downed Russian drone — Meduza
A SIM card from the Ukrainian telecommunications operator Kyivstar was found inside a downed Shahed drone, which Russia used to attack Ukraine. Experts are investigating how the SIM card ended up in the drone and why it was needed, news outlet RBC Ukraine reports Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat as saying in a telethon.
RFE/RL with a deep dive into the the Redut "private military company" which turns out to be a very thin GRU front
https://www.rferl.org/a/redut-fake-russia-gru-pmc-ukraine/32708853.html
The Redut Ruse: Inside Russia’s Fake Private Mercenary Company Fighting In Ukraine
A new interactive investigation by RFE/RL reveals the inner workings of a secretive scheme by Russian military intelligence to recruit fighters for the Kremlin's war on Ukraine under the guise of a fictitious private military company.
https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-agrees-to-open-accession-talks-with-ukraine-moldova/
Given Ukraine's USVs appear to have two-way satellite link, wonder if they've considered using them as relays to do this in the other direction?
https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313#m
Yeah, that's an ex-Ropucha (also one warehouse next to the quay has evaporated, several others are damaged, and the ship at bottom center is doing a submarine impression)
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c
At least hundreds died in floods after Ukraine dam collapse, far more than Russia said
An AP investigation has found that Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in one of the most devastating chapters of the 22-month war in Ukraine — the flooding that followed the catastrophic explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in the southern Kherson region. Russia said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls. But The Associated Press determined the number is at least in the hundreds in the town of Oleshky alone. Health workers and others who were in Oleshky told the AP that Russian authorities hid the true number by taking control of the issuance of death certificates, immediately removing bodies not claimed by family, and preventing local health workers and volunteers from dealing with the dead.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/01/1/7435326/
simonbp