Reed MidekeThe War Zone reports Budanov stating the drones were launched from Russian territory, and includes an image apparently captured from one of them. Would certainly explain the precise targeting if true
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image
Other drone news: Back around Aug 26, Ukrainian sources claimed an attack on Kursk airbase destroyed multiple aircraft (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417295/)
Subsequent satellite imagery showed no obvious damage, calling the report into question…
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1696070712132612233
Today, footage was published of claimed testing of "cardboard drones" used in that attack. They appear use a fragmentation warhead detonated above the target to spread shrapnel over a wide area, which could plausibly do significant damage without setting anything on fire or leaving any other traces visible from satellite. OTOH, significant losses tend to get corroborated on RU channels https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417896/
This footage of a Russian attack helicopter trying to shoot down a Ukrainian drone makes me wonder how hard it would be to mount an Igla or Stinger on their medium sized drones https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/1/7417977/
Two more ships (ANNA THERESA, IMO 9497842 and OCEAN COURTESY 9465198) successfully exited using #Ukraine's unilateral corridor. These are ships that were trapped since the start of the war, remains to be seen whether anyone attempts the inbound voyage, and how Russia responds if so
Long, thoughtful piece on the state of the #Ukraine counteroffensive from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
RUSI's Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds also have a deeply researched report which hits many of the same points
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
Meanwhile, loading up the wings of your strategic bomber fleet with tires (?!) on the 557th day of your three day special military operation is, no doubt, confirmation that everything is going exactly according to plan https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-really-is-using-tires-to-protect-its-bombers-from-attack
If the suggestion that they're intended to interfere with optical / IR target recognition is correct, tarps would seem a lot more convenient. OTOH, don't think the satellite image allows us to definitely distinguish between tires and some other structure of flat, roughly tire diameter rings
The War Zone takes a look at the somewhat curious inclusion of AIM-9 sidewinders in recent aid deliveries (tl;dr: there are plausible AAM and SAM applications, probably won't know until they show up on telegram) https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-aim-9m-sidewinders-can-be-used-in-multiple-ways
"…political officers have noticed a tough situation with desertion and low morale among personnel. They instructed that propaganda materials are to be distributed at the frontline, initially suggesting placing them in every trench shelter and later just in tree lines"
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
In Foreign Policy, Dmitri Alperovitch argues Prigozhin was eliminated for breaking the deal and trying to hang on to his Africa business, rather than it being the plan from day one https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/yevgeny-prigozhin-assassination-vladimir-putin-wagner-deal-revenge/#cookie_message_anchor
Which seems possible, but I don't find the arguments against it being the plan all along terribly compelling. The delay seems easily explained by wanting to degrade and disperse Wagner before striking, as well as getting the top leadership at once
On the ground photos confirming those things that looked exactly like tires from orbit are in fact tires 🥴 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1700083418900340826
Hard to imagine what this is supposed to accomplish, but seems pretty clear someone on the Russian side thinks it's worth significant effort and likely operational headaches
Timely reminder for those demanding negotiations now that Russia's negotiating position pre-2022 was that it had no control of the Donbas "separatists"
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
CIT continues to argue the Sept. 6 Kostiantynivka strike was a stray Ukrainian missile. Doesn't seem (and they don't claim) definitive, but not immediately dismissible either https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-7-8
Oh, hadn't seen this part of the Musk / Starlink debacle "The [Russian] ambassador had explicitly told [Musk] that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response"
Dude got absolutely *played* by a guy making him feel important
*after* the cut-off, Musk "discussed the situation with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley" … maybe he should have asked them if they thought the nuke threat was legit? 🤔
Worrying about about the implications of your product being used off-label by a foreign military is not unreasonable, but if you have a direct line to the national security advisor and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, maybe check with them before cutting it off?
OTOH, possible the Biden admin would have concurred, given their caution in other areas
Also, those first starlink USVs washed up around Sept 20, 2022 (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/ukraines-new-weapon-to-strike-russian-navy-in-sevastopol/). Ukraine had already successfully hit Saki airbase in August, destroying a bunch of planes (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russian-warplanes-destroyed-in-crimea-saky-airbase-attack-satellite-images-show), so the "attack on Crimea will trigger a nuke response" threat was already pretty hollow
Ukraine’s New Weapon To Strike Russian Navy In Sevastopol - Naval News
A previously unreported drone boat, known as a USV (uncrewed surface vessel), appears to have slipped past Russian Navy patrols. The device was found on a beach close to the major Russian Navy base of Sevastopol in Crimea.
The version in Isaacson's biography and WaPo piece was "Elon saw them heading to Crimea and disabled Starlink"
On twitter, he "corrected" it to match what Elon tweeted: "Starlink was always disabled in Crimea"
Ukrainians apparently say the first version was correct (Rushton certainly has good sources, though how close to this particular program is not clear)
Jimmy Rushton on X
I reached out to a source close to the Ukrainian drone programme about these claims. They confirmed Starlink had been previously enabled in the area in question - which is why Ukraine had used USVs that relied on Starlink for navigation - and that Musk had "turned it off".
Long thread on the impacts of the Kakhovka dam destruction three months on
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099
David Helms on X
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵 Outline:
LOL, war criminal / erstwhile DPR puppet regime member Girkin's fans alleging rigged elections: "Affiliates of imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin claimed that Russian officials falsified all electoral results in Nakhodka, Primorsky Krai, and attacked an independent candidate in Saratov, Saratov Oblast" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10. Geolocated footage posted on September 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Novoprokopivka (18km
UK government claims "Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August… intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port" 🤨
Short of direct knowledge of the intended target from HUMINT or SIGINT, how would you know the target was the ship vs shore infrastructure?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-intelligence-shows-russias-targeting-of-a-cargo-ship
Starlink outage (https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1701772439506894964) and Sevastopol shipyard on fire at approximately the same time
(almost certainly unrelated, but somewhat funny in light of recent news)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1701774908403904799
TASS report on the #Ukraine #Sevastopol strike is unusually straightforward. States it was a "Ukrainian strike", and a "non-civilian" object is on fire. Bit of reassuring propaganda at the end "authorities assure that there is no danger to civilian objects in the city" but presumably referring to the fire, not the whole "city being targeted by missiles and drones in an ongoing war" thing
They do neglect to mention that the "non-civilian object" likely includes a large warship https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1701798722235965827
Fires resulting from the #Ukraine #Sevastopol strike were big and long lasting enough to show up on NASA FIRMS
On day 566 of his three day Special Military Operation, Putin is begging North Korea for artillery shells while a couple Black Sea fleet ships burn. Truly a master strategist!
Enforcing sanctions on common dual use electronics is extremely hard: "In cases where Russia needs millions of one particular component, export controls can grind production to a halt. But the chips needed to make a couple of hundred cruise missiles would fit into a few backpacks"
Cayman Islands flagged Puma (IMO 9748265) successfully exited #Ukraine's unilateral Black Sea corridor https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9748265
First ships to use #Ukraine's corridor inbound have reached Chornomorsk: Palau flagged RESILIENT AFRICA (IMO 9257204) and AROYAT (IMO 9151395)
Russia's Black Sea fleet has notably had other things competing for attention recently
People are flagging this from Blinken as a reversal of the "don't use US weapons on Russian soil" as a major policy change but I suspect it's gonna get a walk back in the next news cycle. Would be very odd to roll out a change that big with an answer in a press conference https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-says-its-up-to-ukraine-how-to-use-us-provided-weapons/
Blinken says it's up to Ukraine how to use US-provided weapons
While Washington "does not encourage nor enable" Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapon systems outside of the country, it is "fundamentally" Kyiv's decision how to use those weapons, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said at a press conference.
Do they really think people who (unreasonably, IMO) made loud unhappy noises after some humvees and MRAPS crossed a couple km into Belgorod are gonna like, "we don't support it but if they ATACMS the Kremlin that's their choice"
More like Rostov-undone #Subtoot https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/18/7420313/
NYT matches (without citing, natch) CIT's reporting that the Kostiantynivka strike was most likely a failed Ukrainian missile, tracing it to a specific Buk launched around that time
#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html?unlocked_article_code=mdNpTg3Bkjv9j1IZFI7KQz3iALTTn4OtQ5fXP0R74AqZo-XoUehKgzPRYFuIL11Gsu5LmmFM1pWXJ75zLJ7Te9PuxUk6PSmFTB23VwuGNKw-i1QFqUEZsZCGyKM2r9ycwNcX2_Gmauz08Xdv_CggzDTeHeCkmTIsHPCLTivBAKqKSDToIl8gQCleGg1gE2JyxEvRq33qoa1bAJe2h9sEimKLEGQXXhHqfmgGnKbcn8Cx4LE7WqFGFEP8lMi3Jfr1X2WMYq93_Hh-Mrfrm-xXTIUqR-YFg0PzYSu70JbWyjJzvyQujSTrz9M7biPrWvZKCYVBOd10sgLc3ktQOFwfzts6aCrG-LhIeLtGzKrTF3Rottiq&smid=url-share
RESILIENT AFRICA, departing Chornomorsk
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9257204
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9257204
No tears lost for wagnerites or their RSF pals, but proliferation of these FPV drones seems like it could get ugly for a lot of people 😬 https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html
Also likely to be significantly more effective in places that aren't saturated with EW like the Ukraine front lines. Potential for assassination and terror attacks seems extremely high
Togo flagged SEAMA (IMO 7827328) damaged by a suspected mine in Danube delta area. Location seems more suggestive of a drifting stray than a deliberate attack
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-23/h_cbd816862c66d7862de3102b9e1e6212
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-23/h_cbd816862c66d7862de3102b9e1e6212
On day 573 of the three day special military operation, citizens are encouraged to install a drone attack reporting app. This is, no doubt, exactly according to plan
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/russia-app-drone-citizens-war/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/russia-app-drone-citizens-war/
Ukrainian soldier on Sudan FPV attacks https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1704930679027298525
"Pentagon exempts Ukraine operations from potential government shutdown" - Clearly the right choice, though as noted in the article, there would likely still be impacts
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/pentagon-exempts-ukraine-operations-from-shutdown-00117482
AROYAT (IMO 9151395) departing Chornomorsk, bound for Egypt with Ukrainian grain
Meanwhile, Liberian flagged ENEIDA (IMO 9198381) appears to be inbound to Chornomorsk
Latest US aid package to #Ukraine includes more Sidewinders, specifically "AIM-9M missiles for air defense", as well as "Avenger air defense systems". Once upon a time, there was a project to arm Avengers with AIM-9 🤔
On day 575 of the three day special military operation, everything is going according to plan at Black Sea fleet HQ in #Sevastopol (via https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/21260)
Budanov: "The second point in engaging defenses is that we’re making those holes in the overall air defense coverage. Those holes are exploited for other things" - Yeah, not a coincidence multiple high end air defense systems were hit leading up to the recent #Sevastopol strikes
On ATACMS (before today's reports US will deliver a "small number"): "I can say conditionally that if it's 100 missiles, this won’t change the situation" 🤨
Probably true in the sense damage inflicted isn't going to directly lead to a breakthrough, but it's pretty clear they've used Storm Shadow effectively, and even a small number of ATACMS would complement it
WaPo reports the cluster munition variant of ATACMS is likely to be provided, which would open up targets that aren't suited to Storm Shadow's big single warhead
#GiftArticle #GiftLink #ATACMS #Ukraine https://wapo.st/3EPtJ8Q
Turns out there were 3 ships in the latest inbound group, all arrived successfully: ENEIDA at Chornomorsk, YING HAO 01 and AZARA (IMO 9132492, Palau flagged) at Yuzhnyy https://twitter.com/OlKubrakov/status/1705126874198720763
Oleksandr Kubrakov on X
⛴️3 new cargo vessels are on the way to enter Chornomorsk and Pivdenij ports for loading export products. Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA is using temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian Navy in order to export 127K tones of agroproducts and iron ore for China…
If you wondered what former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin was up to, he's been appointed "senator" for occupied Zaporizhzhia. He was previously wounded in a hotel in Donetsk while cosplaying with the Russian army
Lot has been said about Russian's apathy about the war, but the number of sabotage attempts pretty remarkable (though few of these were successful)
"As calculated by the Zona Solidarnosti [Solidarity zone] Telegram channel, Russia has witnessed 310 partisan actions over the 19 months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine… most frequent incidents included draft office arson (128 cases) and railway sabotage (111 cases)"
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-22-24
"As calculated by the Zona Solidarnosti [Solidarity zone] Telegram channel, Russia has witnessed 310 partisan actions over the 19 months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine… most frequent incidents included draft office arson (128 cases) and railway sabotage (111 cases)"
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-sept-22-24
Russian inflatable tank decoys in the field (from https://t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/725 via https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1706316927050584391). Could be a real challenge to spot in lower res imagery
Khorne Group.
Увага, насамперед тим, хто оператори дронів. На відео не танк ☝️ орків. Видає при всій реалістичності, відсутність накату. Це надувний, а швидше за все, що натягується на раму, макет-хибна ціль орків. Фальшивий як і вся їхня путінська порода. Будьте уважні, не витрачаєте боєкомплект марно. Їх зараз дедалі більше на полі бою. Attention, first of all, to those who are drone operators. On the video is not an orcs tank ☝️. With all realism, gives out lack of rolling. This is an inflatable, and most likely a frame-stretching mock-up of the orcs. Fake like all their Putin breed. Be careful, do not spend the ammunition in vain. There are more and more of them on the battlefield now.
Today's CIT report covers a different kind of decoy: Camo nets with radar reflectors https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-22-25
More footage of #Ukraine testing "Marichka" (semi?) submersible #USV. Not obvious what power source or control system is, no obvious snorkel, cameras, or antenna 🤔
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-develops-a-kamikaze-underwater-drone-to-hit-russian-bridges-and-warships-video/?swcfpc=1
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-develops-a-kamikaze-underwater-drone-to-hit-russian-bridges-and-warships-video/?swcfpc=1
