Show threadReed MidekeAug 22, 2023

Man, not convinced senior defense officials armchair quarterbacking #Ukraine anonymously in the pages of NYT and WaPo are helping, even if they're right. Kind feels like a bit of CYA so they can say "We gave them everything they need, it would have worked if they did it OUR way" or scoring points in internal policy debates

#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?unlocked_article_code=rMH7AwpkWVivldDNxvP5CFIGObw_mC7qGgp4zZceP-99O3m-A_t5YIGcauT9gIo2nGUgz6yFm_-spESK97p68IIdeXSRq59-0TB9pDuREeC1tYiF8PDV23Skp7J5J1p1BP01i1ttn0DZBB4A0qK-Av3eLeDR9ew7Gw-0NnNh3gq72G67MxpO_xaHY_1NzDw1h9eA_eoHSxhu3lJN3s-WI3-jnc1n5q4yvio1sp5stqF601SWz8HeIamBGPn9Z6E7OM5yn1uZrJihlxU6P8mU-R7Uh2eWyW1a3Bi5e2RK-elZcmUOLq6kl9BsQtWBt_LZlQ5xzPDwN32xCrISHEL9n_-gt2nWgE0to7AMj2mE84XA&smid=url-share

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

The New York Times
Show threadReed MidekeAug 22, 2023
Yeah, if successful, a major breakthrough would be preferable even with heavy losses, but seems far from guaranteed, and the people on the ground probably have a better handle on the odds. As the article notes "American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity"
Show threadReed MidekeAug 22, 2023
Easy to say Ukraine should have YOLO'd their main force into the largest prepared defenses since WWII with limited training and no air superiority when you don't have to deal with the consequences of failure
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
Meanwhile, UAV attacks on Moscow are becoming a near nightly occurrence. Practical impact seems dubious, but certainly reminds the elites the war isn't just a distant thing on TV. Also causes havoc on airline schedules, since they close the airports every time drones are spotted https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1694162016594800671
Rob Lee on X

There was another apparent UAV attack on a building in Moscow City tonight. https://t.co/l2qiLNWtjJ https://t.co/QlRf33fixW https://t.co/uPtT6U4ODt https://t.co/kyQafYEUTp https://t.co/kyQafYEUTp

Twitter
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
Seems like defense industry facilities might be a better return on investment, or with the right terminal guidance, parked aircraft on military airfields. Though to be fair, Ukraine has launched at plenty at targets other than downtown Moscow
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023

Claimed testing of a submersible USV (google translate) "In the video, the underwater drone "Marichka" is being tested, which will be useful for submarine ships, coastal fortifications, for submarines, as well as to perform reconnaissance functions

Length - 6 m
Width - 1 m
Range - 1000 km
The price is UAH 16 million

https://t.me/mysiagin/26033"

Attacking submerged seems like it could have a much higher hit rate against warships than the surface USVs seen so far

https://twitter.com/2uwmp/status/1694082304765751302

🇺🇦 МИСЯГІН 🇺🇦

⚡️⚡️На відео проводится тестування підводного дрону "Марічка", який стане в нагоді для підорських кораблів, берегових укріплень, для підводних човнів а також виконувати функції дорозвідки Довжина - 6 м Ширина - 1 м Дальність - 1000 км Ціна - 16 млн грн Telegram | Facebook | Twitter Надіслати новину/Фото/Відео ⬇️⬇️⬇️ @mysiagin_chat

Telegram
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
#ukraine media report a Russian Mi-8 pilot defected in a HUR planned operation https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-helicopter-pilot-surrenders-to-ukraine/
Media: Russian helicopter pilot surrenders to Ukraine

A Russian pilot landed his Mi-8 helicopter at an airfield in Ukraine to give himself up to the authorities, Ukrainian media reported on Aug. 23. The landing was part of a long-term Ukrainian operation, according to Ukrainska Pravda media outlet.

The Kyiv Independent
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023

Claims Yevgeny Prigozhin and several other high-ranking Wagner affiliates died in a plane crash 🤔

"The plane that crashed in the Tver region belongs to Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to BAZA and journalist Ksenia Sobchak. There were 7 people on board the Embraer business jet, they died."

(couldn't have happened to a more deserving war criminal, if true)

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1694395085004186102

Jimmy Rushton on X

"The plane that crashed in the Tver region belongs to Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to BAZA and journalist Ksenia Sobchak. There were 7 people on board the Embraer business jet, they died."

Twitter
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
Pour one out for the UK government, who were reportedly going to 'proscribe the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation "within weeks", according to the FT' https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1694356306264482263
Jimmy Rushton on X

The UK will proscribe the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation "within weeks", according to the FT. I would expect many other countries to follow the British example in due course. https://t.co/VYlA573ZW4

Twitter
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
Putin would offing Prigozhin as soon as a convenient always seemed like a likely outcome, and taking out additional senior leadership like Dmitry Utkin would reduce the chance of organized blowback. If true, you'd expect raids against other parts of the organization to be happening now
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023

OTOH, maybe an S-300 crew lost some buddies in one of those aircraft Wagner shot down and was like "yo, whoops, accidentally hit the fire button!"

More seriously, while Putin is the obvious suspect, dude was not short on enemies

Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
Wonder if Lukashenko was in on this all along, looped in at the last minute or got the surprise <s>burning bag of dogsiht</s> camp full of pissed off mercenaries on his doorstep?
Show threadReed MidekeAug 23, 2023
BBC Russian follows up on the bizarre wave of "scammers" convincing Russian pensioners to try to set draft offices on fire
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
Как в России мошенники заставляют пенсионеров поджигать военкоматы - BBC News Русская служба

Летом в России началась новая волна поджогов военкоматов. Среди задержанных — в основном пожилые люди, но есть и молодые, студенты. Все они говорят, что стали жертвами телефонных мошенников. Би-би-си рассказывает, что известно о таких случаях.

BBC News Русская служба
Show threadReed MidekeAug 24, 2023
Politico''s NatSec Daily also finds a whiff of self-serving in the US officials anonymous "Ukraine is doing the counter offensive wrong" campaign https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/23/prigozhin-presumed-dead-and-ukraine-leaks-00112471
Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks

If it’s true — and <a href="https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1694415100768145819?s=46&t=JSlKlToJK8h6TJ8mTrweqg">Wagner executives are saying it is</a> — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President <b>VLADIMIR PUTIN</b> got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.

POLITICO
Show threadReed MidekeAug 27, 2023

"Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities"
They may be right, and there may well be context and nuance lost but…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/27/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-us-support-holds/

How the U.S. sees Ukraine’s push: No stalemate, but no breakthrough

Top officials have criticisms of the Kyiv’s counteroffensive, but their support remains firm.

The Washington Post
Show threadReed MidekeAug 27, 2023
…the US has essentially zero experience using drones in the way Ukraine does, and reportedly refused to allow experienced Ukrainian soldiers to use them in training for a recon type role (https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1679468509498073088)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 28, 2023
I'm sure much of the US criticism is valid and offered in good faith, but there certainly seems to be a element of "we're the greatest army in the world, we know best" and NIH from the trainers right up to the Pentagon https://twitter.com/WT3ll/status/1679198812483514396
Рядовий Шутнік 2.0 on Twitter

“Тред про навчання в Німеччині. Частина 2 Так я був у взводі розвідки, навчали нас американські рейнджери. Програма була націлена саме на розвідку. Було три основних інструктор, ось такі мордовороти. Вони втрьох були однаково квадратними.”

Twitter
Show threadReed MidekeAug 28, 2023

Does Russia "confirming" Prigozhin's death make it more or less likely he's actually dead? 🤔

(IMO he almost certainly is, and they wouldn't have much reason to lie about it if they didn't actually know)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66632924

Wagner boss Prigozhin confirmed dead in plane crash - Moscow

Genetic analysis of the bodies was carried out following Wednesday's crash, Russian officials say.

Show threadReed MidekeAug 28, 2023
Presumably Russian affiliated disruption of Polish trains "Because the trains use a radio system that lacks encryption or authentication for those commands, Olejnik says, anyone with as little as $30 of off-the-shelf radio equipment can broadcast the command to a Polish train… It is three tonal messages sent consecutively. Once the radio equipment receives it, the locomotive goes to a halt" 😬
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
The Cheap Radio Hack That Disrupted Poland's Railway System

The sabotage of more than 20 trains in Poland by apparent supporters of Russia was carried out with a simple “radio-stop” command anyone could broadcast with $30 in equipment.

WIRED
Show threadReed MidekeAug 28, 2023
People have been setting fire to relay cabinets on Russian railways for months, with little apparent impact
Show threadReed MidekeAug 28, 2023
Liberian flagged bulk carrier Primus (IMO 9310757) appears to be the second ship to successfully depart #Odesa #Ukraine since the end of the grain deal https://gcaptain.com/second-vessel-leaves-odesa-through-temporary-black-sea-corridor/
Second Vessel Leaves Odesa Through Temporary Black Sea Corridor

KYIV, Aug 27 (Reuters) – A vessel carrying steel products to Africa has left Ukraine’s Odesa port through a temporary Black Sea corridor, the second ship to do so since Russia withdrew...

gCaptain
Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023
Another convergence between GOP and Putin policies: Bringing back child labor "Vladimir Putin gave instructions to simplify the employment of minors and to ease limits on child labor, in order to deal with the shortage of at least 660,000 workers" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-aug-25-27
Mobilization in Russia for Aug. 25-27, 2023 CIT Volunteer Summary

Mikhail Matveyev, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Regional Policy and Local Self-Government, reported that a bill to revoke the...

Teletype
Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023

Something reportedly cooking off at Pskov military airfield, #Russia

Video in the thread shows AA fire, suggesting drone attack. Obvious Q: launched from #Ukraine or somewhere closer?

https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1696627546064822320

Angry Cossack on X

Pskov, military airport NOW.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023

Under 700 km from #Ukraine, or a bit more with a dog leg around Belarus so definitely within reach of their long range drones. OTOH, under 40 km from Estonia, well within reach consumer size drones, though at risk of potentially awkward diplomatic consequences 😬

AA fire probably argues for larger drones

Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023
Drones and explosions also reported in Tula (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1696648726377308320) and Bryansk (https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1696650366375326166)
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on X

In Tula an explosion is reported. High likely the work of Ukrainian drones which are very active over lots of regions in Russia right now.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023
CIT reports CIT founder Ruslan Leviev and blogger Michael Nacke were sentenced in absentia to 11 years in prison for "fake news" about the Russian Army, which is a pretty good endorsement of their coverage https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-28-29
Sitrep for Aug. 28–29, 2023 (as of 8 a.m.)

Due to the large volume of reports of strikes and attacks, this sitrep will only cover those that resulted in significant destruction...

Teletype
Show threadReed MidekeAug 29, 2023
TASS shot / chaser
Show threadReed MidekeAug 30, 2023
Definitely a qualitative change from a handful of drones breaking windows in downtown Moscow. We'll see what's corroborated when the dust settles, but appears multiple militarily significant targets were hit in multiple locations
Show threadReed MidekeAug 30, 2023
TFW everything is going according to plan on day 551 of your 3-day special military operation
Show threadReed MidekeAug 30, 2023

"In the Kaluga region, during an UAV attack, the glass of a house was damaged and an empty tank for oil products caught fire, no one was injured"

An empty tank caught fire 🤨

Show threadReed MidekeAug 30, 2023

#Prigozhin crash, shot / chaser

(https://twitter.com/skazal_on/status/1696621234983719398, https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1696665126110367925)

Andrey Zakharov on X

Почти неделю назад под Москвой упал самолет. Возможно — взорвался. Возможно, бомбу заложили в аэропорту. На борту погибли два героя России. Какие новости по уголовному делу? Есть подозреваемые? Впрочем, о чем это я.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 30, 2023

Interesting take on the Prigozhin assassination from Jeremy Morris
"the chains of decision-making are never linear or clear. An unfortunate effect of viewing Russia as a ‘mafia state’, … is that it suggests there’s a ‘boss’ handing out the tasks of enforcement to his capos"

(though IMO, that's probably a misperception when applied to most organized crime groups too)

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/yevgeny-prigozhin-death-russia-vladimir-putin-jeremy-morris/

JEREMY MORRIS: What Prigozhin’s death means for Russia

There is some ambiguity around how, exactly, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed. But that is useful to Putin

openDemocracy
Show threadReed MidekeAug 31, 2023

Confirmation two Il-76s were fully destroyed in the Pskov drone attack, in addition to the two previously identified as damaged. Interestingly, the separation between hit aircraft and the fact the "damaged" ones were both hit dead center suggest #Ukraine was able to specifically target individual aircraft or revetments, as a opposed to a lucky hit setting one on fire and and spreading to the rest

https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/1697317011498610730

MT Anderson on X

🇷🇺PSKOV AIR BASE🇷🇺 True carnage revealed. Special thanks to @umbraspace for the SAR imagery from Pskov combined with Optical imagery from @planet. Imagery from the morning of the 30 August showed the damage on 2x Il-76 but cloud cover obstructed the rest.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 31, 2023
RFE/RL Схеми identified the other damaged aircraft yesterday, the destroyed ones were obscured by clouds
https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1696991667595657558
Схеми on X

Перші супутникові знімки після атаки українських безпілотників на аеродром біля Пскова @KOvsianyi @planet 🧵

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeAug 31, 2023
The War Zone reports Budanov stating the drones were launched from Russian territory, and includes an image apparently captured from one of them. Would certainly explain the precise targeting if true
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image
Moment Of Drone Strike That Destroyed Russian Il-76s Seen In Infrared Image

New satellite imagery shows two Il-76s were totally destroyed and two others damaged in the drone attack on Kresty Air Base.

The Drive
Show threadReed MidekeAug 31, 2023

Other drone news: Back around Aug 26, Ukrainian sources claimed an attack on Kursk airbase destroyed multiple aircraft (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417295/)

Subsequent satellite imagery showed no obvious damage, calling the report into question…
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1696070712132612233

Ukrainian Security Service's drones attack planes at Kursk airfield

Ukrainska Pravda
Show threadReed MidekeAug 31, 2023
Today, footage was published of claimed testing of "cardboard drones" used in that attack. They appear use a fragmentation warhead detonated above the target to spread shrapnel over a wide area, which could plausibly do significant damage without setting anything on fire or leaving any other traces visible from satellite. OTOH, significant losses tend to get corroborated on RU channels https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417896/
Security Service of Ukraine attacks air base in Russia with cardboard drones

Ukrainska Pravda
Show threadReed MidekeSep 1, 2023
This footage of a Russian attack helicopter trying to shoot down a Ukrainian drone makes me wonder how hard it would be to mount an Igla or Stinger on their medium sized drones https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/1/7417977/
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence posts video of Russian aircraft chasing Ukrainian drone in Crimea

Ukrainska Pravda
Show threadReed MidekeSep 3, 2023

Two more ships (ANNA THERESA, IMO 9497842 and OCEAN COURTESY 9465198) successfully exited using #Ukraine's unilateral corridor. These are ships that were trapped since the start of the war, remains to be seen whether anyone attempts the inbound voyage, and how Russia responds if so

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/2/7418199/

Two more vessels successfully pass through temporary grain corridor – Zelenskyy

Ukrainska Pravda
Show threadReed MidekeSep 5, 2023
Long, thoughtful piece on the state of the #Ukraine counteroffensive from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks

On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiff

War on the Rocks
Show threadReed Mideke
RUSI's Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds also have a deeply researched report which hits many of the same points
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive

Russian defences and military adaptations pose challenges for Ukraine's 2023 offensive.

Sep 5, 2023 at 2:28amWeb
Show threadReed MidekeSep 5, 2023
Meanwhile, loading up the wings of your strategic bomber fleet with tires (?!) on the 557th day of your three day special military operation is, no doubt, confirmation that everything is going exactly according to plan https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-really-is-using-tires-to-protect-its-bombers-from-attack
Russia Is Using Tires To Protect Its Bombers From Aerial Attack

Arranging surplus tires atop Russian bombers is likely a highly makeshift countermeasure used to thwart Ukrainian long-range missile strikes.

The Drive
Show threadReed MidekeSep 5, 2023
If the suggestion that they're intended to interfere with optical / IR target recognition is correct, tarps would seem a lot more convenient. OTOH, don't think the satellite image allows us to definitely distinguish between tires and some other structure of flat, roughly tire diameter rings
Show threadReed MidekeSep 5, 2023
The War Zone takes a look at the somewhat curious inclusion of AIM-9 sidewinders in recent aid deliveries (tl;dr: there are plausible AAM and SAM applications, probably won't know until they show up on telegram) https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-aim-9m-sidewinders-can-be-used-in-multiple-ways
Ukraine's AIM-9M Sidewinders Can Be Used In Multiple Ways

Leveraging the AIM-9M Sidewinders in a ground-based air defense application is arguably as relevant as on its Su-27 and MiG-29s.

The Drive
Show threadReed MidekeSep 5, 2023
"…political officers have noticed a tough situation with desertion and low morale among personnel. They instructed that propaganda materials are to be distributed at the frontline, initially suggesting placing them in every trench shelter and later just in tree lines"
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
Sitrep for Sept. 4–5, 2023 (as of 9 a.m.)

Despite fighting raging on in both the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia directions, neither side has made any further progress. After analyzing...

Teletype
Show threadReed MidekeSep 6, 2023
In Foreign Policy, Dmitri Alperovitch argues Prigozhin was eliminated for breaking the deal and trying to hang on to his Africa business, rather than it being the plan from day one https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/yevgeny-prigozhin-assassination-vladimir-putin-wagner-deal-revenge/#cookie_message_anchor
Putin Killed Prigozhin Over Business, Not Vengeance

The Wagner chief broke the deal struck with Putin for his survival.

Foreign Policy
Show threadReed MidekeSep 6, 2023
Which seems possible, but I don't find the arguments against it being the plan all along terribly compelling. The delay seems easily explained by wanting to degrade and disperse Wagner before striking, as well as getting the top leadership at once
Show threadReed MidekeSep 8, 2023
On the ground photos confirming those things that looked exactly like tires from orbit are in fact tires 🥴 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1700083418900340826
OSINTtechnical on X

The rooftop tyre infection appears to be spreading around the Russian Air Force, now seen here on an Su-34.

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeSep 8, 2023
Hard to imagine what this is supposed to accomplish, but seems pretty clear someone on the Russian side thinks it's worth significant effort and likely operational headaches
Show threadReed MidekeSep 8, 2023
Timely reminder for those demanding negotiations now that Russia's negotiating position pre-2022 was that it had no control of the Donbas "separatists"
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
Payback? Russia Gets Hacked, Revealing Putin Aide's Secrets

Ukrainian hackers posted emails showing Russia's involvement in the separatist movement that has waged war in Ukraine.

NBC News
Show threadReed MidekeSep 9, 2023
CIT continues to argue the Sept. 6 Kostiantynivka strike was a stray Ukrainian missile. Doesn't seem (and they don't claim) definitive, but not immediately dismissible either https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-7-8
Sitrep for Sept. 7–8, 2023 (as of 9 a.m.)

One competing theory regarding the Sept. 6 Kostiantynivka missile strike hinges on the projectile’s flight path. Some analysts suggest...

Teletype
Show threadReed MidekeSep 9, 2023

Oh, hadn't seen this part of the Musk / Starlink debacle "The [Russian] ambassador had explicitly told [Musk] that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response"

Dude got absolutely *played* by a guy making him feel important

#GiftArticle

https://wapo.st/45OfnkP

‘How am I in this war?’: The untold story of Elon Musk’s support for Ukraine

The complex relationship between the world’s richest man and a country fighting for its life

The Washington Post
Show threadReed MidekeSep 9, 2023
*after* the cut-off, Musk "discussed the situation with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley" … maybe he should have asked them if they thought the nuke threat was legit? 🤔
Show threadReed MidekeSep 9, 2023

Worrying about about the implications of your product being used off-label by a foreign military is not unreasonable, but if you have a direct line to the national security advisor and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, maybe check with them before cutting it off?

OTOH, possible the Biden admin would have concurred, given their caution in other areas

Show threadReed MidekeSep 9, 2023
Also, those first starlink USVs washed up around Sept 20, 2022 (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/ukraines-new-weapon-to-strike-russian-navy-in-sevastopol/). Ukraine had already successfully hit Saki airbase in August, destroying a bunch of planes (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russian-warplanes-destroyed-in-crimea-saky-airbase-attack-satellite-images-show), so the "attack on Crimea will trigger a nuke response" threat was already pretty hollow
Ukraine’s New Weapon To Strike Russian Navy In Sevastopol - Naval News

A previously unreported drone boat, known as a USV (uncrewed surface vessel), appears to have slipped past Russian Navy patrols. The device was found on a beach close to the major Russian Navy base of Sevastopol in Crimea.

Naval News
Show threadReed MidekeSep 10, 2023

The version in Isaacson's biography and WaPo piece was "Elon saw them heading to Crimea and disabled Starlink"
On twitter, he "corrected" it to match what Elon tweeted: "Starlink was always disabled in Crimea"

Ukrainians apparently say the first version was correct (Rushton certainly has good sources, though how close to this particular program is not clear)

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1700845764644098197

Jimmy Rushton on X

I reached out to a source close to the Ukrainian drone programme about these claims. They confirmed Starlink had been previously enabled in the area in question - which is why Ukraine had used USVs that relied on Starlink for navigation - and that Musk had "turned it off".

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeSep 11, 2023
Long thread on the impacts of the Kakhovka dam destruction three months on
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099
David Helms on X

1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵 Outline:

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeSep 11, 2023
LOL, war criminal / erstwhile DPR puppet regime member Girkin's fans alleging rigged elections: "Affiliates of imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin claimed that Russian officials falsified all electoral results in Nakhodka, Primorsky Krai, and attacked an independent candidate in Saratov, Saratov Oblast" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023
Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10. Geolocated footage posted on September 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Novoprokopivka (18km

Institute for the Study of War
Show threadReed MidekeSep 11, 2023

UK government claims "Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August… intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port" 🤨

Short of direct knowledge of the intended target from HUMINT or SIGINT, how would you know the target was the ship vs shore infrastructure?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-intelligence-shows-russias-targeting-of-a-cargo-ship

New intelligence shows Russia's targeting of a cargo ship

New intelligence shows the intended target of a Russian missile attack in the Black Sea was a cargo ship

GOV.UK
Show threadReed MidekeSep 13, 2023

Starlink outage (https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1701772439506894964) and Sevastopol shipyard on fire at approximately the same time

(almost certainly unrelated, but somewhat funny in light of recent news)

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1701774908403904799

#Ukraine #Crimea #Sevastopol

Starlink on X

The network issue has been fully resolved

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadReed MidekeSep 13, 2023
Sneaky