Reed Midekehttps://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
Как в России мошенники заставляют пенсионеров поджигать военкоматы - BBC News Русская служба
Летом в России началась новая волна поджогов военкоматов. Среди задержанных — в основном пожилые люди, но есть и молодые, студенты. Все они говорят, что стали жертвами телефонных мошенников. Би-би-си рассказывает, что известно о таких случаях.
Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks
If it’s true — and <a href="https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1694415100768145819?s=46&t=JSlKlToJK8h6TJ8mTrweqg">Wagner executives are saying it is</a> — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President <b>VLADIMIR PUTIN</b> got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.
"Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities"
They may be right, and there may well be context and nuance lost but…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/27/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-us-support-holds/
Does Russia "confirming" Prigozhin's death make it more or less likely he's actually dead? 🤔
(IMO he almost certainly is, and they wouldn't have much reason to lie about it if they didn't actually know)
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
Something reportedly cooking off at Pskov military airfield, #Russia
Video in the thread shows AA fire, suggesting drone attack. Obvious Q: launched from #Ukraine or somewhere closer?
Under 700 km from #Ukraine, or a bit more with a dog leg around Belarus so definitely within reach of their long range drones. OTOH, under 40 km from Estonia, well within reach consumer size drones, though at risk of potentially awkward diplomatic consequences 😬
AA fire probably argues for larger drones
"In the Kaluga region, during an UAV attack, the glass of a house was damaged and an empty tank for oil products caught fire, no one was injured"
An empty tank caught fire 🤨
#Prigozhin crash, shot / chaser
(https://twitter.com/skazal_on/status/1696621234983719398, https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1696665126110367925)
Interesting take on the Prigozhin assassination from Jeremy Morris
"the chains of decision-making are never linear or clear. An unfortunate effect of viewing Russia as a ‘mafia state’, … is that it suggests there’s a ‘boss’ handing out the tasks of enforcement to his capos"
(though IMO, that's probably a misperception when applied to most organized crime groups too)
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/yevgeny-prigozhin-death-russia-vladimir-putin-jeremy-morris/
Confirmation two Il-76s were fully destroyed in the Pskov drone attack, in addition to the two previously identified as damaged. Interestingly, the separation between hit aircraft and the fact the "damaged" ones were both hit dead center suggest #Ukraine was able to specifically target individual aircraft or revetments, as a opposed to a lucky hit setting one on fire and and spreading to the rest
https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1696991667595657558
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image
Other drone news: Back around Aug 26, Ukrainian sources claimed an attack on Kursk airbase destroyed multiple aircraft (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417295/)
Subsequent satellite imagery showed no obvious damage, calling the report into question…
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1696070712132612233
Two more ships (ANNA THERESA, IMO 9497842 and OCEAN COURTESY 9465198) successfully exited using #Ukraine's unilateral corridor. These are ships that were trapped since the start of the war, remains to be seen whether anyone attempts the inbound voyage, and how Russia responds if so
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
Oh, hadn't seen this part of the Musk / Starlink debacle "The [Russian] ambassador had explicitly told [Musk] that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response"
Dude got absolutely *played* by a guy making him feel important
Worrying about about the implications of your product being used off-label by a foreign military is not unreasonable, but if you have a direct line to the national security advisor and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, maybe check with them before cutting it off?
OTOH, possible the Biden admin would have concurred, given their caution in other areas
Ukraine’s New Weapon To Strike Russian Navy In Sevastopol - Naval News
A previously unreported drone boat, known as a USV (uncrewed surface vessel), appears to have slipped past Russian Navy patrols. The device was found on a beach close to the major Russian Navy base of Sevastopol in Crimea.
The version in Isaacson's biography and WaPo piece was "Elon saw them heading to Crimea and disabled Starlink"
On twitter, he "corrected" it to match what Elon tweeted: "Starlink was always disabled in Crimea"
Ukrainians apparently say the first version was correct (Rushton certainly has good sources, though how close to this particular program is not clear)
Jimmy Rushton on X
I reached out to a source close to the Ukrainian drone programme about these claims. They confirmed Starlink had been previously enabled in the area in question - which is why Ukraine had used USVs that relied on Starlink for navigation - and that Musk had "turned it off".
https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099
David Helms on X
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵 Outline:
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10. Geolocated footage posted on September 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Novoprokopivka (18km
UK government claims "Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August… intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port" 🤨
Short of direct knowledge of the intended target from HUMINT or SIGINT, how would you know the target was the ship vs shore infrastructure?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-intelligence-shows-russias-targeting-of-a-cargo-ship
Starlink outage (https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1701772439506894964) and Sevastopol shipyard on fire at approximately the same time
(almost certainly unrelated, but somewhat funny in light of recent news)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1701774908403904799
TASS report on the #Ukraine #Sevastopol strike is unusually straightforward. States it was a "Ukrainian strike", and a "non-civilian" object is on fire. Bit of reassuring propaganda at the end "authorities assure that there is no danger to civilian objects in the city" but presumably referring to the fire, not the whole "city being targeted by missiles and drones in an ongoing war" thing
Enforcing sanctions on common dual use electronics is extremely hard: "In cases where Russia needs millions of one particular component, export controls can grind production to a halt. But the chips needed to make a couple of hundred cruise missiles would fit into a few backpacks"
First ships to use #Ukraine's corridor inbound have reached Chornomorsk: Palau flagged RESILIENT AFRICA (IMO 9257204) and AROYAT (IMO 9151395)
Russia's Black Sea fleet has notably had other things competing for attention recently
Blinken says it's up to Ukraine how to use US-provided weapons
While Washington "does not encourage nor enable" Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapon systems outside of the country, it is "fundamentally" Kyiv's decision how to use those weapons, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said at a press conference.
NYT matches (without citing, natch) CIT's reporting that the Kostiantynivka strike was most likely a failed Ukrainian missile, tracing it to a specific Buk launched around that time
#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html?unlocked_article_code=mdNpTg3Bkjv9j1IZFI7KQz3iALTTn4OtQ5fXP0R74AqZo-XoUehKgzPRYFuIL11Gsu5LmmFM1pWXJ75zLJ7Te9PuxUk6PSmFTB23VwuGNKw-i1QFqUEZsZCGyKM2r9ycwNcX2_Gmauz08Xdv_CggzDTeHeCkmTIsHPCLTivBAKqKSDToIl8gQCleGg1gE2JyxEvRq33qoa1bAJe2h9sEimKLEGQXXhHqfmgGnKbcn8Cx4LE7WqFGFEP8lMi3Jfr1X2WMYq93_Hh-Mrfrm-xXTIUqR-YFg0PzYSu70JbWyjJzvyQujSTrz9M7biPrWvZKCYVBOd10sgLc3ktQOFwfzts6aCrG-LhIeLtGzKrTF3Rottiq&smid=url-share
Ben Brockert