Mastodawn

@Andy_Scollick yes, it will stop there, because they have resources to do anything else than hold on eastern Ukraine for maybe 5 years. Fact that putin keeps promoting people still saying "yes" bodes well for Ukraine. He is never gonna put someone capable in charge.

@peteriskrisjanis Russian Ministry of Defence together with other ministries (Industry and Trade etc) and the General Staff already have a programme for the rearmament of Russia and reorganisation of military-industrial production. It's a 10-year plan with financial accelerants to bring that down to 8 years. That's a current allied milplan assessment. They are coming back bigger and more aggressive. Russia must be defeated (in Ukraine and thru' blockade) and contained.

@Andy_Scollick I can't seriously take any russian claims with face value. They suddenly won't become more effective, not corrupt, much better motivated.
Should they have to be kept in check, should we have to be ready for WW3 or any critical situations? Sure. But taking such claims as serious talking point feels vain. Ukraine needs support without such "backing".

@Andy_Scollick my problem essential with such "opinions" and how they presented in press in general is that they are building this "existential clash of doom" narrative. I have bad news for everyone waiting for civilization to end - it won't. We can be nuked, boiled, but we still be here and we will have to figure out all this. All it does it just increases artificial media engagement at the cost of mental sanity of people.

@peteriskrisjanis With respect, I think you are mixing up "humanity" with "civilisation". Statisically, humanity will fare better from a full-scale nuclear war (estimated 3 billion survivors) than 'hothouse' (4-6+C) climate change (estimated 300-500 million survivors). Civilisational thresholds (tipping points) are poorly understood; this is an unprecedented global-scale 'experiment'. Civilisation likely to collapse (implode) in patchy phases BEFORE phys-chem-bio climate thresholds are crossed.

@Andy_Scollick I will agree on that it is about definition what "civilization" means. Said that, I do not expect humans to give up social links so easily. Even dark middle ages did not see full breakdown of trade contacts. People still traveled. A lot.
As for climate change I fully agree, it looks much much worse than full nuclear war (which is not even possible in theory). I can agree on that.
An on all this background this posturing and kremlin's "success" so far feels pointless.

GHaiku Sep 10, 2023

@peteriskrisjanis @Andy_Scollick
I’m near convinced it’s all for the churches sake-on both sides. War is a racket. Doesn’t he have a military church? Is it aligned with George Bush’s “crusade?” (Sarcasm)

Confederate chuds in the US share the same ideology.

“The idea of God implies the abdication of human reason and justice; it is the most decisive negation of human liberty and necessarily ends in the enslavement of mankind both in theory and practice.” -Mikhail Bakunin

@peteriskrisjanis The only thing about the Middle Ages (and every other age) is that today we have societies and economies that have become vulnerable through civilisational dependencies on ICT, social media, internet, global fibre-optic and satellite aided financial transactions etc. Imagine there's no internet, cell phones. Or even raw materials trade. We would likely de-evolve to a Medieval civilisation: another 'Dark Ages'. Nature might be a lot better off for it!

@Andy_Scollick there I feel it is a bit hyperbolised dramatism in this. Yes, some trade will cease. I do not think internet will go away, it will specialize, will stay with radio waves, communication will be less scaled, but still there.
Everything will fall back to communities? Which I think is already happening.
Things gonna change.. World will be different. How different - it still depends on us.

@peteriskrisjanis It is precisely because we, the West or whatever we call ourselves, didn't take Russia seriously in 2008 (when they invaded Georgia) and then 2014 (when they invaded Ukraine, seizing Crimea and occupying the Donbas) that we had the Russian full-scale invasion attempt in Feb 2022. Some of us (me incl) warned for years after 2014 that Russia was building for an attempt. We were ignored. That has cost not only Ukrainian lives, but also emboldened Russia, China and others.

@Andy_Scollick
The sad truth is that many did pay attention and noticed, but did nothing because trade and economy were more important.
I am also very concerned about India and China becoming more dependent on Russia, resulting in their possibilities and willingness to help Russia during this war.

@peteriskrisjanis

@pascaline @Andy_Scollick I would not worry too much, if anything it will be opposite. Both countries have ruthless autocrats at the helm, but are acutely aware about energy independence, China especially.
West however had this "whatever floats" sense about overall security of energy, it believed in its own oil growth hype. This is a result of business calling shots of external security. Now we are at the rude awakening phase, and still governments struggle to take control of the situation.

@pascaline @Andy_Scollick I actually see China going into Siberia to secure oil fields if all shit gets hot in russia.

@peteriskrisjanis
I have no doubts about that. But well, I could be wrong.

@peteriskrisjanis
Years (and years) ago I told my students that if China decided to go 'green energy', this would change the world. They are really speeding this up and that's great!
The 'West' kept ignoring/accepting things For Profit: short-term profit thinking taken to the extreme with investment companies, privatising public services, and more. It is a bad way to set up society, especially considering the fact many countries now want to save their own arses.

@pascaline @peteriskrisjanis Pascaline, the way things are shaping up, it's Russia that is becoming more dependent on China and, increasingly, India. As a one-trick-pony petrostate, Russia has shot itself in the foot. (Will remain a huge and growing problem on the climate change front though: plenty of Russia's Siberia has been subject to wildfires this summer and the Siberian permafrost is emitting more and more methane as permafrost melts.)

@Andy_Scollick
Yes, you can sense the desperation at times. I don't mind if they shoot themselves in both feet.
The permafrost is a major concern. I remember learning about the permafrost in highschool: I was intrigued, and was taught how crucial it is that it stays frozen.

They warned about the great thaw years ago, mentioning the danger of Siberian craters and 'seas of methane'. Very concerning 😟

@peteriskrisjanis

@Andy_Scollick @peteriskrisjanis

Bill Lamb Sep 10, 2023

The demographics aren't on his side.

Sean Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @cstross tbh as it stands the invasion of Ukraine looks like it’s no more than stepping stone to occupying slightly more of Ukraine

@smcl @cstross That's now. Russian political, military and industrial institutions are already working on rearmament and reorganisation. Word in milplan world is that Russia has a 10-year programme to recover and grow, potentially before finding another weakspot in Western defences (such as Ireland). That's only 2031-2035: not far away in strategic terms.

Sean Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @cstross This would be like drawing your first two qualifying matches and then declaring you are going to win the World Cup. I just cannot see it.

And re Ireland, an invasion of a neighbouring country that they have an enormous land border with has proven to be beyond them. I cannot think how they would structure an invasion of Ireland, and what they could conceivably do if they somehow managed.

Just all feels like pure bluster to be honest.

@smcl @cstross I've got news for you: Ireland could be taken by two divisions of Russian mainly VDV (airborne). In reality, the Irish Defence Forces lack the personnel (ca. 7,700 full-timers + reserves) and capabilities (due to years of underfunding) to mount a defence against half their number or less. As with Ukraine: Russia knows that UK (NATO) troops will not commit. It's theoretical but has been a RU Gen Staff planning scenario (one of many contigencies) since at least 2012.

@smcl @cstross It's far from bluster. For example, Russian military intelligence (GRU) and VDV and Naval Infantry spetsnaz have detailed plans for taking Haulbowline Naval Base in Cork Harbour (ostensibly during a conflict with NATO, to deny NATO a safe haven). That's a fact. No one expects Russia to make its next military move until the ealy 2030s. Russian planning is a preparedness measure: once Russian Armed Forces are reorganised, regrown and rearmed, their next victim will be in trouble.

@smcl @cstross And (before anyone asks) why would Russia EVER want to have a military 'adventure' in Ireland? Simple. Ireland is not protected by NATO's umbrella: it is low-hanging fruit with a barely-functional Defence Forces (that would have difficulty containing The Troubles 2.0 let alone two divisions' worth of Russian assets). Why would they? To threaten NATO's flank, divide NATO publics, cause geopolitical chaos. Ireland is key vulnerability: wide open for exploitation in future.

@Andy_Scollick @smcl It's an amusing conceit but the failure modes are obvious. Even before you throw in the descendants of the IRA *and* the UVF, with resupply from the UK. (My guess is that if a Russian invasion looked remotely likely Ireland would be into NATO so fast you'd miss it if you blinked. And your recent precedent is Sweden and Finland.)

@cstross @smcl One thing I've learnt about Ireland over the years is that no one would put money on the outcome of a referendum about joining NATO. There is actually little appetite here for that - even with Russia's war and China's rise (perhaps largely because of that). We simply don't 'do' defence. It's not popular. Rather depressing.

@Andy_Scollick @smcl Yeah: that's depressing. But liable to change if Putin—rather than his more excitable fanboys—starts talking about Irish ambitions.

@smcl @Andy_Scollick Russia's fall from empire was far faster and far harder than the UK's, and those of them in middle age still remember it. Traumatic, but doesn't excuse delusional revanchism, though.

Russia invading Ireland would be insane. Centuries of No Love Whatsoever for overseas imperial occupiers: more recent memories of a decades-long insurgency. IE isn't neutral—it's part of the EU—and it's on the far side of NATO from Russian resupply.

@smcl @Andy_Scollick

2/ Worst case for Russia: it'd turn into Falklands Conflict 2.0, with Russia in the role of Argentina, only facing the UK at point-blank range (with NATO resupply), and at the wrong end of its own supply lines.

@cstross @smcl Your are correct about the logistics. Much (all) would depend on whether NATO intercepted Russian resupply (air and sea). Russia now knows, unfortunately, that it can attack a partner country (ie Ukraine) and NATO will not intercept and blockade Russian merchant vessels at sea. Even a limited incursion (eg seizing Shannon Airport and/or Cork Harbour): NATO likely hands-off, no direct conflict, sanctions and all that. Our weak response to Russia has emboldened Russia (and others).

Patrick Gillam Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @smcl @cstross

This exchange brings to mind the concept of finite and infinite games. The West wants to believe the Russian invasion is a finite game, with an ending. Nice dream.

Exchanges such as this also bring to mind historian Timothy Snyder’s observation that empires don’t stop empiring until they’re defeated. Not just paused in their expansions. Defeated.

My takeaway is that empires playing infinite games must be made finite.

@smcl @Andy_Scollick

2021: Russian Army is second most powerful in the world!

...

2023: Russian Army is second most powerful in Ukraine!

Russian dreams of rebuilding their empire in Europe are about as realistic as British Conservative fantasies of Empire 2.0.

@cstross @smcl That's the point: they don't have to rebuild their empire. Having failed on this strategic trajectory Russia is very likely to attempt another: preferably a non-NATO strategic target such as a 'neutral' country; in the Arctic, Africa and Central America; and/or through increasing divsions among NATO countries resulting in lowering our shields (again). Time is on Russia's side (it's already been doing this for over 100 years).

Tea time.Sep 10, 2023

@cstross @smcl @Andy_Scollick *"Russian dreams of rebuilding their empire in Europe are about as realistic as British Conservative fantasies of Empire 2.0."*

The problem being, there are still about 460,000 Russian occupiers in Ukraine... and counting. And nobody wants to share the burden of getting rid of them with Ukraine.

There's a fair amount of speculation going on that the US / Biden is slowwalking aid to Ukraine, as they don't want to see Russia destabilized.

@KraftTea @cstross @smcl To be charitable to the US, they are trying to balance avoiding a full-on direct confrontation with Russia (i.e. WW3 type escalation) with some hefty military and financial packages to assist Ukraine. The proble is IMHO that the breaks need to come off: Ukraine needs some very heavy duty and long range capabilities to degrade the Russian Armed Forces more quickly and thoroughly.

@Andy_Scollick @KraftTea @smcl Oh, no disagreement there. (I just think Russian ambitions beyond Ukraine are risible.)

Tea time.Sep 10, 2023

@cstross @Andy_Scollick @smcl The longterm argument about them sweeping across Europe are certainly risible... but so are the longterm arguments of the Tories or the Republicans.

Unfortunately, it doesn't make their delusions any less dangerous, for those forced to stand up to them on the front line.

It's a bad time right now to be transgender or an immigrant... and a much worse time being Ukrainian.

Tea time.Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @cstross @smcl True. The problem I see is that there are huge stockpiles of surplus arms in the US for relatively mundane things, such as Humvees, that should be making their way to Ukraine but aren't.

The idea that the US can't turn loose the spigots on Humvees to help the Ukrainians with everything from moving troops to the front to providing better supply and ambulance services is kind of ludicrous.

"Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning," Mordvichev responded, who went on to say that the war "will not stop here."

He remained silent, only thinking the next line in his own head "... it's going all the way to Moscow."

Angry Angua :firefish:

Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick

Would explain why Putin is trying to be nice to China.
One wrong step and China could flatten Russia.
My only surprise is China hasn't already - resources alone.

Does ANYBODY still think NATO is a bad idea?

Duh.

People are so lousy with wanting to stick their head in the sand.

Yeekasoose Sep 10, 2023

Du und welche Armee, Valodja?

Evil Bunny Pottymouth Sep 10, 2023

#ArmUkraine
#ArmUkraineQuicker

gavinisdie

Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick Authoritarians never stop

xs4me2 Sep 10, 2023

The West is not doing nearly enough, the Russian Federation needs to be defeated. It is the only way to end Russian aggression. The resentment and dolchstoss legend implanted in Russian civilization in 20 plus years of reign of the Putin regime will not simply go away.

TeflonTrout Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick At this rate, it might not stop after Moscow

thegardendude 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️🇵🇸Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick They can barely handle Ukraine right now with abysmal morale and having to rely on outside help for arms and supplies. This is just more bluster to save face.

eribosot Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick The first question any good journalist should ask when talking to a person in a powerful position, speaking on behalf of his or her government, is, "Why are they telling me this?"

And in the case of Russia, I don't think that "Because it's true" is necessarily the only possible answer to that question.