Andy ScollickSep 10, 2023

"Ukraine is only a stepping stone?" the interviewer then asked.

"Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning," Mordvichev responded, who went on to say that the war "will not stop here. "https://www.newsweek.com/russian-general-admits-ukraine-just-stepping-stone-invade-europe-1825776

Russian General Admits Ukraine Just a 'Stepping Stone' to Invade Europe

Ukraine "is only the beginning," Colonel-General Andrey Mordvichev warned in a recent interview.

Newsweek
Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick yes, it will stop there, because they have resources to do anything else than hold on eastern Ukraine for maybe 5 years. Fact that putin keeps promoting people still saying "yes" bodes well for Ukraine. He is never gonna put someone capable in charge.
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@peteriskrisjanis Russian Ministry of Defence together with other ministries (Industry and Trade etc) and the General Staff already have a programme for the rearmament of Russia and reorganisation of military-industrial production. It's a 10-year plan with financial accelerants to bring that down to 8 years. That's a current allied milplan assessment. They are coming back bigger and more aggressive. Russia must be defeated (in Ukraine and thru' blockade) and contained.
Show threadPēteris Krišjānis
@Andy_Scollick I can't seriously take any russian claims with face value. They suddenly won't become more effective, not corrupt, much better motivated.
Should they have to be kept in check, should we have to be ready for WW3 or any critical situations? Sure. But taking such claims as serious talking point feels vain. Ukraine needs support without such "backing".
Sep 10, 2023 at 10:06amWeb
Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick my problem essential with such "opinions" and how they presented in press in general is that they are building this "existential clash of doom" narrative. I have bad news for everyone waiting for civilization to end - it won't. We can be nuked, boiled, but we still be here and we will have to figure out all this. All it does it just increases artificial media engagement at the cost of mental sanity of people.
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@peteriskrisjanis With respect, I think you are mixing up "humanity" with "civilisation". Statisically, humanity will fare better from a full-scale nuclear war (estimated 3 billion survivors) than 'hothouse' (4-6+C) climate change (estimated 300-500 million survivors). Civilisational thresholds (tipping points) are poorly understood; this is an unprecedented global-scale 'experiment'. Civilisation likely to collapse (implode) in patchy phases BEFORE phys-chem-bio climate thresholds are crossed.
Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick I will agree on that it is about definition what "civilization" means. Said that, I do not expect humans to give up social links so easily. Even dark middle ages did not see full breakdown of trade contacts. People still traveled. A lot.
As for climate change I fully agree, it looks much much worse than full nuclear war (which is not even possible in theory). I can agree on that.
An on all this background this posturing and kremlin's "success" so far feels pointless.
Show threadGHaikuSep 10, 2023

@peteriskrisjanis @Andy_Scollick
I’m near convinced it’s all for the churches sake-on both sides. War is a racket. Doesn’t he have a military church? Is it aligned with George Bush’s “crusade?” (Sarcasm)

Confederate chuds in the US share the same ideology.

“The idea of God implies the abdication of human reason and justice; it is the most decisive negation of human liberty and necessarily ends in the enslavement of mankind both in theory and practice.” -Mikhail Bakunin

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@peteriskrisjanis The only thing about the Middle Ages (and every other age) is that today we have societies and economies that have become vulnerable through civilisational dependencies on ICT, social media, internet, global fibre-optic and satellite aided financial transactions etc. Imagine there's no internet, cell phones. Or even raw materials trade. We would likely de-evolve to a Medieval civilisation: another 'Dark Ages'. Nature might be a lot better off for it!
Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick there I feel it is a bit hyperbolised dramatism in this. Yes, some trade will cease. I do not think internet will go away, it will specialize, will stay with radio waves, communication will be less scaled, but still there.
Everything will fall back to communities? Which I think is already happening.
Things gonna change.. World will be different. How different - it still depends on us.
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@peteriskrisjanis It is precisely because we, the West or whatever we call ourselves, didn't take Russia seriously in 2008 (when they invaded Georgia) and then 2014 (when they invaded Ukraine, seizing Crimea and occupying the Donbas) that we had the Russian full-scale invasion attempt in Feb 2022. Some of us (me incl) warned for years after 2014 that Russia was building for an attempt. We were ignored. That has cost not only Ukrainian lives, but also emboldened Russia, China and others.
Show threadDagnabbit, Pascaline! 💥Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick
The sad truth is that many did pay attention and noticed, but did nothing because trade and economy were more important.
I am also very concerned about India and China becoming more dependent on Russia, resulting in their possibilities and willingness to help Russia during this war.

@peteriskrisjanis

Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@pascaline @Andy_Scollick I would not worry too much, if anything it will be opposite. Both countries have ruthless autocrats at the helm, but are acutely aware about energy independence, China especially.
West however had this "whatever floats" sense about overall security of energy, it believed in its own oil growth hype. This is a result of business calling shots of external security. Now we are at the rude awakening phase, and still governments struggle to take control of the situation.
Show threadPēteris KrišjānisSep 10, 2023
@pascaline @Andy_Scollick I actually see China going into Siberia to secure oil fields if all shit gets hot in russia.
Show threadDagnabbit, Pascaline! 💥Sep 10, 2023

@peteriskrisjanis
I have no doubts about that. But well, I could be wrong.

@Andy_Scollick

Show threadDagnabbit, Pascaline! 💥Sep 10, 2023

@peteriskrisjanis
Years (and years) ago I told my students that if China decided to go 'green energy', this would change the world. They are really speeding this up and that's great!
The 'West' kept ignoring/accepting things For Profit: short-term profit thinking taken to the extreme with investment companies, privatising public services, and more. It is a bad way to set up society, especially considering the fact many countries now want to save their own arses.

@Andy_Scollick

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@pascaline @peteriskrisjanis Pascaline, the way things are shaping up, it's Russia that is becoming more dependent on China and, increasingly, India. As a one-trick-pony petrostate, Russia has shot itself in the foot. (Will remain a huge and growing problem on the climate change front though: plenty of Russia's Siberia has been subject to wildfires this summer and the Siberian permafrost is emitting more and more methane as permafrost melts.)
Show threadDagnabbit, Pascaline! 💥Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick
Yes, you can sense the desperation at times. I don't mind if they shoot themselves in both feet.
The permafrost is a major concern. I remember learning about the permafrost in highschool: I was intrigued, and was taught how crucial it is that it stays frozen.

They warned about the great thaw years ago, mentioning the danger of Siberian craters and 'seas of methane'. Very concerning 😟

@peteriskrisjanis