@Andy_Scollick @cstross tbh as it stands the invasion of Ukraine looks like it’s no more than stepping stone to occupying slightly more of Ukraine

@smcl @cstross That's now. Russian political, military and industrial institutions are already working on rearmament and reorganisation. Word in milplan world is that Russia has a 10-year programme to recover and grow, potentially before finding another weakspot in Western defences (such as Ireland). That's only 2031-2035: not far away in strategic terms.

@smcl @cstross I've got news for you: Ireland could be taken by two divisions of Russian mainly VDV (airborne). In reality, the Irish Defence Forces lack the personnel (ca. 7,700 full-timers + reserves) and capabilities (due to years of underfunding) to mount a defence against half their number or less. As with Ukraine: Russia knows that UK (NATO) troops will not commit. It's theoretical but has been a RU Gen Staff planning scenario (one of many contigencies) since at least 2012.

@smcl @cstross It's far from bluster. For example, Russian military intelligence (GRU) and VDV and Naval Infantry spetsnaz have detailed plans for taking Haulbowline Naval Base in Cork Harbour (ostensibly during a conflict with NATO, to deny NATO a safe haven). That's a fact. No one expects Russia to make its next military move until the ealy 2030s. Russian planning is a preparedness measure: once Russian Armed Forces are reorganised, regrown and rearmed, their next victim will be in trouble.

@smcl @cstross And (before anyone asks) why would Russia EVER want to have a military 'adventure' in Ireland? Simple. Ireland is not protected by NATO's umbrella: it is low-hanging fruit with a barely-functional Defence Forces (that would have difficulty containing The Troubles 2.0 let alone two divisions' worth of Russian assets). Why would they? To threaten NATO's flank, divide NATO publics, cause geopolitical chaos. Ireland is key vulnerability: wide open for exploitation in future.

@Andy_Scollick @smcl It's an amusing conceit but the failure modes are obvious. Even before you throw in the descendants of the IRA *and* the UVF, with resupply from the UK. (My guess is that if a Russian invasion looked remotely likely Ireland would be into NATO so fast you'd miss it if you blinked. And your recent precedent is Sweden and Finland.)

@cstross @smcl One thing I've learnt about Ireland over the years is that no one would put money on the outcome of a referendum about joining NATO. There is actually little appetite here for that - even with Russia's war and China's rise (perhaps largely because of that). We simply don't 'do' defence. It's not popular. Rather depressing.