Andy ScollickSep 10, 2023

"Ukraine is only a stepping stone?" the interviewer then asked.

"Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning," Mordvichev responded, who went on to say that the war "will not stop here. "https://www.newsweek.com/russian-general-admits-ukraine-just-stepping-stone-invade-europe-1825776

Russian General Admits Ukraine Just a 'Stepping Stone' to Invade Europe

Ukraine "is only the beginning," Colonel-General Andrey Mordvichev warned in a recent interview.

Newsweek
Show threadSean
@Andy_Scollick @cstross tbh as it stands the invasion of Ukraine looks like it’s no more than stepping stone to occupying slightly more of Ukraine
Sep 10, 2023 at 10:29amWeb
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@smcl @cstross That's now. Russian political, military and industrial institutions are already working on rearmament and reorganisation. Word in milplan world is that Russia has a 10-year programme to recover and grow, potentially before finding another weakspot in Western defences (such as Ireland). That's only 2031-2035: not far away in strategic terms.
Show threadSeanSep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @cstross This would be like drawing your first two qualifying matches and then declaring you are going to win the World Cup. I just cannot see it.

And re Ireland, an invasion of a neighbouring country that they have an enormous land border with has proven to be beyond them. I cannot think how they would structure an invasion of Ireland, and what they could conceivably do if they somehow managed.

Just all feels like pure bluster to be honest.

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@smcl @cstross I've got news for you: Ireland could be taken by two divisions of Russian mainly VDV (airborne). In reality, the Irish Defence Forces lack the personnel (ca. 7,700 full-timers + reserves) and capabilities (due to years of underfunding) to mount a defence against half their number or less. As with Ukraine: Russia knows that UK (NATO) troops will not commit. It's theoretical but has been a RU Gen Staff planning scenario (one of many contigencies) since at least 2012.
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@smcl @cstross It's far from bluster. For example, Russian military intelligence (GRU) and VDV and Naval Infantry spetsnaz have detailed plans for taking Haulbowline Naval Base in Cork Harbour (ostensibly during a conflict with NATO, to deny NATO a safe haven). That's a fact. No one expects Russia to make its next military move until the ealy 2030s. Russian planning is a preparedness measure: once Russian Armed Forces are reorganised, regrown and rearmed, their next victim will be in trouble.
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@smcl @cstross And (before anyone asks) why would Russia EVER want to have a military 'adventure' in Ireland? Simple. Ireland is not protected by NATO's umbrella: it is low-hanging fruit with a barely-functional Defence Forces (that would have difficulty containing The Troubles 2.0 let alone two divisions' worth of Russian assets). Why would they? To threaten NATO's flank, divide NATO publics, cause geopolitical chaos. Ireland is key vulnerability: wide open for exploitation in future.
Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick @smcl It's an amusing conceit but the failure modes are obvious. Even before you throw in the descendants of the IRA *and* the UVF, with resupply from the UK. (My guess is that if a Russian invasion looked remotely likely Ireland would be into NATO so fast you'd miss it if you blinked. And your recent precedent is Sweden and Finland.)
Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@cstross @smcl One thing I've learnt about Ireland over the years is that no one would put money on the outcome of a referendum about joining NATO. There is actually little appetite here for that - even with Russia's war and China's rise (perhaps largely because of that). We simply don't 'do' defence. It's not popular. Rather depressing.
Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick @smcl Yeah: that's depressing. But liable to change if Putin—rather than his more excitable fanboys—starts talking about Irish ambitions.
Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023

@smcl @Andy_Scollick Russia's fall from empire was far faster and far harder than the UK's, and those of them in middle age still remember it. Traumatic, but doesn't excuse delusional revanchism, though.

Russia invading Ireland would be insane. Centuries of No Love Whatsoever for overseas imperial occupiers: more recent memories of a decades-long insurgency. IE isn't neutral—it's part of the EU—and it's on the far side of NATO from Russian resupply.

/1

Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023

@smcl @Andy_Scollick

2/ Worst case for Russia: it'd turn into Falklands Conflict 2.0, with Russia in the role of Argentina, only facing the UK at point-blank range (with NATO resupply), and at the wrong end of its own supply lines.

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@cstross @smcl Your are correct about the logistics. Much (all) would depend on whether NATO intercepted Russian resupply (air and sea). Russia now knows, unfortunately, that it can attack a partner country (ie Ukraine) and NATO will not intercept and blockade Russian merchant vessels at sea. Even a limited incursion (eg seizing Shannon Airport and/or Cork Harbour): NATO likely hands-off, no direct conflict, sanctions and all that. Our weak response to Russia has emboldened Russia (and others).
Show threadPatrick GillamSep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @smcl @cstross

This exchange brings to mind the concept of finite and infinite games. The West wants to believe the Russian invasion is a finite game, with an ending. Nice dream.

Exchanges such as this also bring to mind historian Timothy Snyder’s observation that empires don’t stop empiring until they’re defeated. Not just paused in their expansions. Defeated.

My takeaway is that empires playing infinite games must be made finite.

Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023

@smcl @Andy_Scollick

2021: Russian Army is second most powerful in the world!

...

2023: Russian Army is second most powerful in Ukraine!

Russian dreams of rebuilding their empire in Europe are about as realistic as British Conservative fantasies of Empire 2.0.

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@cstross @smcl That's the point: they don't have to rebuild their empire. Having failed on this strategic trajectory Russia is very likely to attempt another: preferably a non-NATO strategic target such as a 'neutral' country; in the Arctic, Africa and Central America; and/or through increasing divsions among NATO countries resulting in lowering our shields (again). Time is on Russia's side (it's already been doing this for over 100 years).
Show threadTea time.Sep 10, 2023

@cstross @smcl @Andy_Scollick *"Russian dreams of rebuilding their empire in Europe are about as realistic as British Conservative fantasies of Empire 2.0."*

The problem being, there are still about 460,000 Russian occupiers in Ukraine... and counting. And nobody wants to share the burden of getting rid of them with Ukraine.

There's a fair amount of speculation going on that the US / Biden is slowwalking aid to Ukraine, as they don't want to see Russia destabilized.

Show threadAndy ScollickSep 10, 2023
@KraftTea @cstross @smcl To be charitable to the US, they are trying to balance avoiding a full-on direct confrontation with Russia (i.e. WW3 type escalation) with some hefty military and financial packages to assist Ukraine. The proble is IMHO that the breaks need to come off: Ukraine needs some very heavy duty and long range capabilities to degrade the Russian Armed Forces more quickly and thoroughly.
Show threadCharlie StrossSep 10, 2023
@Andy_Scollick @KraftTea @smcl Oh, no disagreement there. (I just think Russian ambitions beyond Ukraine are risible.)
Show threadTea time.Sep 10, 2023

@cstross @Andy_Scollick @smcl The longterm argument about them sweeping across Europe are certainly risible... but so are the longterm arguments of the Tories or the Republicans.

Unfortunately, it doesn't make their delusions any less dangerous, for those forced to stand up to them on the front line.

It's a bad time right now to be transgender or an immigrant... and a much worse time being Ukrainian.

Show threadTea time.Sep 10, 2023

@Andy_Scollick @cstross @smcl True. The problem I see is that there are huge stockpiles of surplus arms in the US for relatively mundane things, such as Humvees, that should be making their way to Ukraine but aren't.

The idea that the US can't turn loose the spigots on Humvees to help the Ukrainians with everything from moving troops to the front to providing better supply and ambulance services is kind of ludicrous.