Reed Mideke#Ukraine released a compilation of USV videos. Seems like hit rate against warships that notice them is pretty low, wonder if they're working on variants armed with conventional torpedoes or missiles
Yesterday, it was widely reported Russia boarded #Ukraine bound Palau-flagged / Turkish owned cargo ship Sukru Okan, but not clearly reported where in the Black Sea it happened (nyt #GiftArticle )
Today's CI Team siterep (https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-11-14) suggests it happened in southern Black Sea, a bit outside Turkish territorial waters, rather far from Sukru Okan's destination of Izmail on the Danube delta
Nominal Harpoon block 1 (yellow) and Neptune (red, take it with a grain of salt) ranges, per wikipedia. Area where Russia can intercept that is not in NATO waters or serious risk of getting Moskva'd is pretty limited. Of course, targeting them near shipping lanes would be dicey
Sukru Okan meanwhile made its way to Romanian side of the Danube delta at least
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:334865/mmsi:511100865/imo:8311560/vessel:SUKRU_OKAN
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:334865/mmsi:511100865/imo:8311560/vessel:SUKRU_OKAN
Ship SUKRU OKAN (General Cargo) Registered in Palau - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116
Vessel SUKRU OKAN is a General Cargo, Registered in Palau. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of SUKRU OKAN including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116
CNN obtained footage from #Ukraine SBU showing the Kerch bridge USV attack. Looks somewhat different from the one shown to CNN on July 30 and other recently released strike videos https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/europe/ukraine-crimea-bridge-drone-strike-video-intl/index.html
WaPo obtained detailed planning docs for Russia's #Shahed136 #Drone production from "an individual involved in the work … who opposes Putin’s invasion of Ukraine"
“This was the only thing I could do to at least stop and maybe create some obstacles to the implementation of this project,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of safety concerns. “It has gone too far.”
Wait, what? "One Pentagon spokesman said that he was keeping Musk apprised of my inquiries about his role in Ukraine and would grant an interview with an official about the matter only with Musk’s permission" (Farrow on Musk and Starlink in Ukraine, among other things) https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule
Props to The Insider for including a couple part numbers in this article about Russia sanctions evasion: One is AD7450BRZ, an ADC that sells for $15 (single unit), the other is ADF4351BCPZ-RL7 which is $20 frequency synthesizer… illustrates the extreme difficulty of actually cutting them off. Setting up a shell company in a third country to order modest quantities seems like a low bar for a nation state
Short circuit. How Europe turns a blind eye to Russia smuggling dual-use microchips
In spite of sanctions, microchips from U.S. companies Texas Instruments and Analog Devices continue to be imported into Russia, where they have military applications. These violations are hiding in plain sight, in registered customs data.
Remarkably though, the imports are apparently still reported in Russian customs data
Man, not convinced senior defense officials armchair quarterbacking #Ukraine anonymously in the pages of NYT and WaPo are helping, even if they're right. Kind feels like a bit of CYA so they can say "We gave them everything they need, it would have worked if they did it OUR way" or scoring points in internal policy debates
#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?unlocked_article_code=rMH7AwpkWVivldDNxvP5CFIGObw_mC7qGgp4zZceP-99O3m-A_t5YIGcauT9gIo2nGUgz6yFm_-spESK97p68IIdeXSRq59-0TB9pDuREeC1tYiF8PDV23Skp7J5J1p1BP01i1ttn0DZBB4A0qK-Av3eLeDR9ew7Gw-0NnNh3gq72G67MxpO_xaHY_1NzDw1h9eA_eoHSxhu3lJN3s-WI3-jnc1n5q4yvio1sp5stqF601SWz8HeIamBGPn9Z6E7OM5yn1uZrJihlxU6P8mU-R7Uh2eWyW1a3Bi5e2RK-elZcmUOLq6kl9BsQtWBt_LZlQ5xzPDwN32xCrISHEL9n_-gt2nWgE0to7AMj2mE84XA&smid=url-share
Yeah, if successful, a major breakthrough would be preferable even with heavy losses, but seems far from guaranteed, and the people on the ground probably have a better handle on the odds. As the article notes "American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity"
Easy to say Ukraine should have YOLO'd their main force into the largest prepared defenses since WWII with limited training and no air superiority when you don't have to deal with the consequences of failure
Meanwhile, UAV attacks on Moscow are becoming a near nightly occurrence. Practical impact seems dubious, but certainly reminds the elites the war isn't just a distant thing on TV. Also causes havoc on airline schedules, since they close the airports every time drones are spotted https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1694162016594800671
Seems like defense industry facilities might be a better return on investment, or with the right terminal guidance, parked aircraft on military airfields. Though to be fair, Ukraine has launched at plenty at targets other than downtown Moscow
Claimed testing of a submersible USV (google translate) "In the video, the underwater drone "Marichka" is being tested, which will be useful for submarine ships, coastal fortifications, for submarines, as well as to perform reconnaissance functions
Length - 6 m
Width - 1 m
Range - 1000 km
The price is UAH 16 million
Attacking submerged seems like it could have a much higher hit rate against warships than the surface USVs seen so far
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#ukraine media report a Russian Mi-8 pilot defected in a HUR planned operation https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-helicopter-pilot-surrenders-to-ukraine/
Media: Russian helicopter pilot surrenders to Ukraine
A Russian pilot landed his Mi-8 helicopter at an airfield in Ukraine to give himself up to the authorities, Ukrainian media reported on Aug. 23. The landing was part of a long-term Ukrainian operation, according to Ukrainska Pravda media outlet.
Claims Yevgeny Prigozhin and several other high-ranking Wagner affiliates died in a plane crash 🤔
"The plane that crashed in the Tver region belongs to Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to BAZA and journalist Ksenia Sobchak. There were 7 people on board the Embraer business jet, they died."
(couldn't have happened to a more deserving war criminal, if true)
Pour one out for the UK government, who were reportedly going to 'proscribe the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation "within weeks", according to the FT' https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1694356306264482263
Putin would offing Prigozhin as soon as a convenient always seemed like a likely outcome, and taking out additional senior leadership like Dmitry Utkin would reduce the chance of organized blowback. If true, you'd expect raids against other parts of the organization to be happening now
OTOH, maybe an S-300 crew lost some buddies in one of those aircraft Wagner shot down and was like "yo, whoops, accidentally hit the fire button!"
More seriously, while Putin is the obvious suspect, dude was not short on enemies
Wonder if Lukashenko was in on this all along, looped in at the last minute or got the surprise <s>burning bag of dogsiht</s> camp full of pissed off mercenaries on his doorstep?
BBC Russian follows up on the bizarre wave of "scammers" convincing Russian pensioners to try to set draft offices on fire
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
Как в России мошенники заставляют пенсионеров поджигать военкоматы - BBC News Русская служба
Летом в России началась новая волна поджогов военкоматов. Среди задержанных — в основном пожилые люди, но есть и молодые, студенты. Все они говорят, что стали жертвами телефонных мошенников. Би-би-си рассказывает, что известно о таких случаях.
Politico''s NatSec Daily also finds a whiff of self-serving in the US officials anonymous "Ukraine is doing the counter offensive wrong" campaign https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/23/prigozhin-presumed-dead-and-ukraine-leaks-00112471
Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks
If it’s true — and <a href="https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1694415100768145819?s=46&t=JSlKlToJK8h6TJ8mTrweqg">Wagner executives are saying it is</a> — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President <b>VLADIMIR PUTIN</b> got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.
"Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities"
They may be right, and there may well be context and nuance lost but…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/27/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-us-support-holds/
…the US has essentially zero experience using drones in the way Ukraine does, and reportedly refused to allow experienced Ukrainian soldiers to use them in training for a recon type role (https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1679468509498073088)
I'm sure much of the US criticism is valid and offered in good faith, but there certainly seems to be a element of "we're the greatest army in the world, we know best" and NIH from the trainers right up to the Pentagon https://twitter.com/WT3ll/status/1679198812483514396
Does Russia "confirming" Prigozhin's death make it more or less likely he's actually dead? 🤔
(IMO he almost certainly is, and they wouldn't have much reason to lie about it if they didn't actually know)
Presumably Russian affiliated disruption of Polish trains "Because the trains use a radio system that lacks encryption or authentication for those commands, Olejnik says, anyone with as little as $30 of off-the-shelf radio equipment can broadcast the command to a Polish train… It is three tonal messages sent consecutively. Once the radio equipment receives it, the locomotive goes to a halt" 😬
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
People have been setting fire to relay cabinets on Russian railways for months, with little apparent impact
Liberian flagged bulk carrier Primus (IMO 9310757) appears to be the second ship to successfully depart #Odesa #Ukraine since the end of the grain deal https://gcaptain.com/second-vessel-leaves-odesa-through-temporary-black-sea-corridor/
Another convergence between GOP and Putin policies: Bringing back child labor "Vladimir Putin gave instructions to simplify the employment of minors and to ease limits on child labor, in order to deal with the shortage of at least 660,000 workers" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-aug-25-27
Something reportedly cooking off at Pskov military airfield, #Russia
Video in the thread shows AA fire, suggesting drone attack. Obvious Q: launched from #Ukraine or somewhere closer?
Under 700 km from #Ukraine, or a bit more with a dog leg around Belarus so definitely within reach of their long range drones. OTOH, under 40 km from Estonia, well within reach consumer size drones, though at risk of potentially awkward diplomatic consequences 😬
AA fire probably argues for larger drones
Drones and explosions also reported in Tula (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1696648726377308320) and Bryansk (https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1696650366375326166)
CIT reports CIT founder Ruslan Leviev and blogger Michael Nacke were sentenced in absentia to 11 years in prison for "fake news" about the Russian Army, which is a pretty good endorsement of their coverage https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-28-29
Definitely a qualitative change from a handful of drones breaking windows in downtown Moscow. We'll see what's corroborated when the dust settles, but appears multiple militarily significant targets were hit in multiple locations
TFW everything is going according to plan on day 551 of your 3-day special military operation
"In the Kaluga region, during an UAV attack, the glass of a house was damaged and an empty tank for oil products caught fire, no one was injured"
An empty tank caught fire 🤨
#Prigozhin crash, shot / chaser
(https://twitter.com/skazal_on/status/1696621234983719398, https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1696665126110367925)
Interesting take on the Prigozhin assassination from Jeremy Morris
"the chains of decision-making are never linear or clear. An unfortunate effect of viewing Russia as a ‘mafia state’, … is that it suggests there’s a ‘boss’ handing out the tasks of enforcement to his capos"
(though IMO, that's probably a misperception when applied to most organized crime groups too)
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/yevgeny-prigozhin-death-russia-vladimir-putin-jeremy-morris/
Confirmation two Il-76s were fully destroyed in the Pskov drone attack, in addition to the two previously identified as damaged. Interestingly, the separation between hit aircraft and the fact the "damaged" ones were both hit dead center suggest #Ukraine was able to specifically target individual aircraft or revetments, as a opposed to a lucky hit setting one on fire and and spreading to the rest
RFE/RL Схеми identified the other damaged aircraft yesterday, the destroyed ones were obscured by clouds
https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1696991667595657558
https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1696991667595657558
The War Zone reports Budanov stating the drones were launched from Russian territory, and includes an image apparently captured from one of them. Would certainly explain the precise targeting if true
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image
Other drone news: Back around Aug 26, Ukrainian sources claimed an attack on Kursk airbase destroyed multiple aircraft (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417295/)
Subsequent satellite imagery showed no obvious damage, calling the report into question…
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1696070712132612233
Today, footage was published of claimed testing of "cardboard drones" used in that attack. They appear use a fragmentation warhead detonated above the target to spread shrapnel over a wide area, which could plausibly do significant damage without setting anything on fire or leaving any other traces visible from satellite. OTOH, significant losses tend to get corroborated on RU channels https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417896/
This footage of a Russian attack helicopter trying to shoot down a Ukrainian drone makes me wonder how hard it would be to mount an Igla or Stinger on their medium sized drones https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/1/7417977/
Two more ships (ANNA THERESA, IMO 9497842 and OCEAN COURTESY 9465198) successfully exited using #Ukraine's unilateral corridor. These are ships that were trapped since the start of the war, remains to be seen whether anyone attempts the inbound voyage, and how Russia responds if so
Long, thoughtful piece on the state of the #Ukraine counteroffensive from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
RUSI's Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds also have a deeply researched report which hits many of the same points
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive
Meanwhile, loading up the wings of your strategic bomber fleet with tires (?!) on the 557th day of your three day special military operation is, no doubt, confirmation that everything is going exactly according to plan https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-really-is-using-tires-to-protect-its-bombers-from-attack
If the suggestion that they're intended to interfere with optical / IR target recognition is correct, tarps would seem a lot more convenient. OTOH, don't think the satellite image allows us to definitely distinguish between tires and some other structure of flat, roughly tire diameter rings
The War Zone takes a look at the somewhat curious inclusion of AIM-9 sidewinders in recent aid deliveries (tl;dr: there are plausible AAM and SAM applications, probably won't know until they show up on telegram) https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-aim-9m-sidewinders-can-be-used-in-multiple-ways
"…political officers have noticed a tough situation with desertion and low morale among personnel. They instructed that propaganda materials are to be distributed at the frontline, initially suggesting placing them in every trench shelter and later just in tree lines"
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
Oh yeah mr. commissar that's definitely gonna fix it, brilliant plan sir! https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-4-5
In Foreign Policy, Dmitri Alperovitch argues Prigozhin was eliminated for breaking the deal and trying to hang on to his Africa business, rather than it being the plan from day one https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/yevgeny-prigozhin-assassination-vladimir-putin-wagner-deal-revenge/#cookie_message_anchor
Which seems possible, but I don't find the arguments against it being the plan all along terribly compelling. The delay seems easily explained by wanting to degrade and disperse Wagner before striking, as well as getting the top leadership at once
On the ground photos confirming those things that looked exactly like tires from orbit are in fact tires 🥴 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1700083418900340826
Hard to imagine what this is supposed to accomplish, but seems pretty clear someone on the Russian side thinks it's worth significant effort and likely operational headaches
Timely reminder for those demanding negotiations now that Russia's negotiating position pre-2022 was that it had no control of the Donbas "separatists"
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956
Ben Brockert@reedmideke What’s Russian for “well, the front’s not supposed to fall off, for one thing.”