Reed MidekeWaPo on #Prigozhin mutiny citing a bunch unnamed government / intelligence sources, claiming that it was pretty much what it seemed at the time: Despite advance warning Prigozhin was up to something, no immediate direction from the top, many lower ranks took a wait and see approach
In case you need a succinct illustration of what an absolute clown Seymour Hersh is these days, he claims "some in the American intelligence community" worry Russia might respond to drone attacks on Moscow by attacking Kyiv 🥴
Prigozhin shows up at Putin's Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. Not sure "recently conducted a failed coup attempt in home country" is a selling point for a mercenary organization, by YMMV
https://www.ft.com/content/0a69c5e8-803d-4bd6-b5f8-8f36073372fc
From @osinttechnical on the other site, APKWS has finally made an appearance, after being listed in aid packages since last year. Not clear what's painting the target, being able to do it with drones would seem like an extremely useful capability
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684796259977109505
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684796259977109505
Another candidate for recent #Ukraine long-range strikes: Re-purposed S-200 SAMs. The thing in this video certainly looks S-200ish, though hitting specific surface targets would imply significant GNC upgrades https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1684983833823780864
S-200 is a chonky SAM with a reported 300 km range against air targets. They also have a history of going astray and hitting distant things on the ground https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(missile)
Long piece from @mgerrydoyle on the terrible scale of the landmine problem in #ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/LANDMINES/myvmgnqbavr/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/LANDMINES/myvmgnqbavr/index.html
OK, it was only a matter of time before North Korean munitions showed up in #Ukraine, but I kinda expected the Russians to be firing them.
Key quotes "Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings … Ukrainian soldiers said the rockets had been “seized” from a ship by a “friendly” country" while a Ukrainian official implied they might be captured from Russians
(ft link probably unpaywalled if you click from twitter)
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1685126870159802373
Unusually close look at some canard drones likely used in strikes by #Ukraine on Russia. Looks aerodynamically slick (aside from the unfaired motor), no surprise it can reach Moscow IMO. Spindly "landing gear" only designed for takeoff? No obvious sign of optical sensors = GNSS + IMU only?
https://twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1685596517850021888
https://twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1685596517850021888
CNN also recently got a close look at one of #Ukraine's USVs. Operators claim that Russian's ships defenses have great difficulty countering them seems a bit optimistic though. There have been a lot more attacks than confirmed successful hits
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html
Multiple drones hit Moscow again, reportedly causing damage to building housing several Russian federal ministries https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1686180379575595009
Thread from Christiaan Triebert includes video of damage purportedly from inside the Ministry of Digital Development. Unconfirmed, but pretty good targeting if true
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1686174248694431744
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1686174248694431744
Kyiv Independent has a wild story about the Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary. "While the POWs allegedly do have Hungarian-sounding surnames, only one speaks Hungarian and is a Hungarian citizen … it was the thinly-veiled image of saving Hungarians that mattered: who these people were in reality did not"
Exclusive: New insights point to Hungary’s collaboration with Moscow on transfer of Ukrainian POWs
In early June, a bizarre and mysterious joint operation was carried out between two of Ukraine’s neighbors, one to the east and one to the west. Eleven Ukrainian soldiers, after having been held in Russian captivity for an unknown amount of time, were moved from Russia to Hungary. Although
Held under unclear circumstances, reportedly pressured:
"The narrative of this manipulation, as confirmed by the diplomatic sources, was to convince the POWs that they would immediately be returned to the front line or tried as deserters if they returned to Ukraine, with one source claiming that they were even pressured to take Hungarian citizenship."
"The narrative of this manipulation, as confirmed by the diplomatic sources, was to convince the POWs that they would immediately be returned to the front line or tried as deserters if they returned to Ukraine, with one source claiming that they were even pressured to take Hungarian citizenship."
This is bizarre, a whole bunch of people who attempted arson attacks on Russian draft offices claim to have been convinced to do it by phone scammers (has been reported for a while, but the sheer number in this post is striking) https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jul-31-aug-1
I mean, people fall for all kinds of phone scams but "throw a molotov at a government building" seems like a pretty high bar. Attempt to get a lighter sentence than saying it's anti-war? Seems unlikely to work, and likely to backfire if there's no evidence of the "scammer"
BBC Russian with a long piece on the decline of the Russian diplomatic corps into shouty propagandist "robots with papers" (google translate seems to do passably well)
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cxrxlwr2q4ro
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cxrxlwr2q4ro
Как российский МИД потерял влияние на Путина и не остановил войну - BBC News Русская служба
Дипломатии не удалось остановить российское вторжение в Украину и предотвратить обвал в отношениях Запада и России. Дипломаты из МИД РФ потеряли авторитет внутри системы власти, пытаясь угодить Кремлю, и превратились в пропагандистов, не способных влиять на позицию Путина. Можно ли восстановить разрушенные войной связи России с западным миром?
Reports of a Russian project 775 Ropucha class landing ship listing heavily after USV attack on Novorossiysk https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1687353796622491650
Notably two were damaged in Berdyansk in 2022, and Russia was reportedly using landing ships (though I haven't seen type named) to ease logistics bottlenecks related to the Kerch bridge damage
Anyway #Ukraine posted the video feed from one of the #USV, so I guess we're not playing the "we have no idea who did that" game today
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1687358900079587329
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1687358900079587329
TASS meanwhile parrots the Russian MOD claiming the USVs were defeated ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/18442471
RIA reports (google translate): "To the remark of journalists that, despite the statement of the Ministry of Defense, videos of the damaged ship being towed appeared on the network, Peskov replied that it was necessary to focus on the information of the Ministry of Defense.
"This concerns a special military operation, here questions should be addressed to the Ministry of Defense and guided by the information provided by the Ministry of Defense," he said." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://ria.ru/20230804/korabl-1888167869.html
"This concerns a special military operation, here questions should be addressed to the Ministry of Defense and guided by the information provided by the Ministry of Defense," he said." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://ria.ru/20230804/korabl-1888167869.html
Propaganda value of claiming no damage while you tow a heavily listing >2000 ton warship past a city of a quarter million seems questionable to me, but then again, I am no master strategist!
(Andrey appears to have it figured out)
Good example of what that earlier BBC piece on the Russian diplomatic corps described: Russian U.K. ambassador Andrey Kelin, responding to a question from Christiane Amanpour about the Prigozhin mutiny, claims that no one was killed
We saw multiple aircraft shot down and saw obituaries of their crews
Meanwhile in completely unsurprising news, the German extreme right AfD has been caught coordinating with and getting money from an apparent Russian intelligence agent https://theins.ru/en/politics/264014
Exclusive: Far-right German parliamentary aide tasked by Russia with stopping Leopard tanks to Ukraine
Leaked communications between Vladimir Sergienko, a naturalized German citizen, and “Alexei,” a suspected FSB operative, show the extent of Russia’s infiltration of the Alternative for Germany party. Their “active measures” included a plan to stop or slow delivery of German main battle tanks to Ukraine using frivolous litigation against the German government. It would only cost $93,000.
So #Ukraine seems to have hit an empty, sanctioned Russian oil tanker near the Kerch bridge. Which TBH I'm not convinced is a great / cost benefit, either for use of the USV asset or likely follow-on effect
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66412842
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66412842
Olenegorsky Gornyak, sitting in dry dock, with a substantial hole. Presumably nothing to do with the USVs which, as the Russian MOD assured us, were all defeated
Mark Krutov on Twitter
“And now, ladies and gentlemen, meet the 'Olenegorsky Gornyak' hole. Two things stand out to me: 1) The Russian ship has been holed below the waterline. 2) The ship's interior also appears to have been significantly damaged by the explosion from the Ukrainian naval drone.”
#Ukraine released a compilation of USV videos. Seems like hit rate against warships that notice them is pretty low, wonder if they're working on variants armed with conventional torpedoes or missiles
Yesterday, it was widely reported Russia boarded #Ukraine bound Palau-flagged / Turkish owned cargo ship Sukru Okan, but not clearly reported where in the Black Sea it happened (nyt #GiftArticle )
Today's CI Team siterep (https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-11-14) suggests it happened in southern Black Sea, a bit outside Turkish territorial waters, rather far from Sukru Okan's destination of Izmail on the Danube delta
Nominal Harpoon block 1 (yellow) and Neptune (red, take it with a grain of salt) ranges, per wikipedia. Area where Russia can intercept that is not in NATO waters or serious risk of getting Moskva'd is pretty limited. Of course, targeting them near shipping lanes would be dicey
Sukru Okan meanwhile made its way to Romanian side of the Danube delta at least
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:334865/mmsi:511100865/imo:8311560/vessel:SUKRU_OKAN
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:334865/mmsi:511100865/imo:8311560/vessel:SUKRU_OKAN
Ship SUKRU OKAN (General Cargo) Registered in Palau - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116
Vessel SUKRU OKAN is a General Cargo, Registered in Palau. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of SUKRU OKAN including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116
CNN obtained footage from #Ukraine SBU showing the Kerch bridge USV attack. Looks somewhat different from the one shown to CNN on July 30 and other recently released strike videos https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/europe/ukraine-crimea-bridge-drone-strike-video-intl/index.html
WaPo obtained detailed planning docs for Russia's #Shahed136 #Drone production from "an individual involved in the work … who opposes Putin’s invasion of Ukraine"
“This was the only thing I could do to at least stop and maybe create some obstacles to the implementation of this project,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of safety concerns. “It has gone too far.”
Wait, what? "One Pentagon spokesman said that he was keeping Musk apprised of my inquiries about his role in Ukraine and would grant an interview with an official about the matter only with Musk’s permission" (Farrow on Musk and Starlink in Ukraine, among other things) https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule
Props to The Insider for including a couple part numbers in this article about Russia sanctions evasion: One is AD7450BRZ, an ADC that sells for $15 (single unit), the other is ADF4351BCPZ-RL7 which is $20 frequency synthesizer… illustrates the extreme difficulty of actually cutting them off. Setting up a shell company in a third country to order modest quantities seems like a low bar for a nation state
Short circuit. How Europe turns a blind eye to Russia smuggling dual-use microchips
In spite of sanctions, microchips from U.S. companies Texas Instruments and Analog Devices continue to be imported into Russia, where they have military applications. These violations are hiding in plain sight, in registered customs data.
Remarkably though, the imports are apparently still reported in Russian customs data
Man, not convinced senior defense officials armchair quarterbacking #Ukraine anonymously in the pages of NYT and WaPo are helping, even if they're right. Kind feels like a bit of CYA so they can say "We gave them everything they need, it would have worked if they did it OUR way" or scoring points in internal policy debates
#GiftArticle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?unlocked_article_code=rMH7AwpkWVivldDNxvP5CFIGObw_mC7qGgp4zZceP-99O3m-A_t5YIGcauT9gIo2nGUgz6yFm_-spESK97p68IIdeXSRq59-0TB9pDuREeC1tYiF8PDV23Skp7J5J1p1BP01i1ttn0DZBB4A0qK-Av3eLeDR9ew7Gw-0NnNh3gq72G67MxpO_xaHY_1NzDw1h9eA_eoHSxhu3lJN3s-WI3-jnc1n5q4yvio1sp5stqF601SWz8HeIamBGPn9Z6E7OM5yn1uZrJihlxU6P8mU-R7Uh2eWyW1a3Bi5e2RK-elZcmUOLq6kl9BsQtWBt_LZlQ5xzPDwN32xCrISHEL9n_-gt2nWgE0to7AMj2mE84XA&smid=url-share
Yeah, if successful, a major breakthrough would be preferable even with heavy losses, but seems far from guaranteed, and the people on the ground probably have a better handle on the odds. As the article notes "American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity"
Easy to say Ukraine should have YOLO'd their main force into the largest prepared defenses since WWII with limited training and no air superiority when you don't have to deal with the consequences of failure
Meanwhile, UAV attacks on Moscow are becoming a near nightly occurrence. Practical impact seems dubious, but certainly reminds the elites the war isn't just a distant thing on TV. Also causes havoc on airline schedules, since they close the airports every time drones are spotted https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1694162016594800671
Seems like defense industry facilities might be a better return on investment, or with the right terminal guidance, parked aircraft on military airfields. Though to be fair, Ukraine has launched at plenty at targets other than downtown Moscow
Claimed testing of a submersible USV (google translate) "In the video, the underwater drone "Marichka" is being tested, which will be useful for submarine ships, coastal fortifications, for submarines, as well as to perform reconnaissance functions
Length - 6 m
Width - 1 m
Range - 1000 km
The price is UAH 16 million
Attacking submerged seems like it could have a much higher hit rate against warships than the surface USVs seen so far
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#ukraine media report a Russian Mi-8 pilot defected in a HUR planned operation https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-helicopter-pilot-surrenders-to-ukraine/
Media: Russian helicopter pilot surrenders to Ukraine
A Russian pilot landed his Mi-8 helicopter at an airfield in Ukraine to give himself up to the authorities, Ukrainian media reported on Aug. 23. The landing was part of a long-term Ukrainian operation, according to Ukrainska Pravda media outlet.
Claims Yevgeny Prigozhin and several other high-ranking Wagner affiliates died in a plane crash 🤔
"The plane that crashed in the Tver region belongs to Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to BAZA and journalist Ksenia Sobchak. There were 7 people on board the Embraer business jet, they died."
(couldn't have happened to a more deserving war criminal, if true)
Pour one out for the UK government, who were reportedly going to 'proscribe the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation "within weeks", according to the FT' https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1694356306264482263
Putin would offing Prigozhin as soon as a convenient always seemed like a likely outcome, and taking out additional senior leadership like Dmitry Utkin would reduce the chance of organized blowback. If true, you'd expect raids against other parts of the organization to be happening now
OTOH, maybe an S-300 crew lost some buddies in one of those aircraft Wagner shot down and was like "yo, whoops, accidentally hit the fire button!"
More seriously, while Putin is the obvious suspect, dude was not short on enemies
Wonder if Lukashenko was in on this all along, looped in at the last minute or got the surprise <s>burning bag of dogsiht</s> camp full of pissed off mercenaries on his doorstep?
BBC Russian follows up on the bizarre wave of "scammers" convincing Russian pensioners to try to set draft offices on fire
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c99nr4qe749o
Как в России мошенники заставляют пенсионеров поджигать военкоматы - BBC News Русская служба
Летом в России началась новая волна поджогов военкоматов. Среди задержанных — в основном пожилые люди, но есть и молодые, студенты. Все они говорят, что стали жертвами телефонных мошенников. Би-би-си рассказывает, что известно о таких случаях.
Politico''s NatSec Daily also finds a whiff of self-serving in the US officials anonymous "Ukraine is doing the counter offensive wrong" campaign https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/23/prigozhin-presumed-dead-and-ukraine-leaks-00112471
Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks
If it’s true — and <a href="https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1694415100768145819?s=46&t=JSlKlToJK8h6TJ8mTrweqg">Wagner executives are saying it is</a> — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President <b>VLADIMIR PUTIN</b> got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.
"Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities"
They may be right, and there may well be context and nuance lost but…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/27/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-us-support-holds/
…the US has essentially zero experience using drones in the way Ukraine does, and reportedly refused to allow experienced Ukrainian soldiers to use them in training for a recon type role (https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1679468509498073088)
I'm sure much of the US criticism is valid and offered in good faith, but there certainly seems to be a element of "we're the greatest army in the world, we know best" and NIH from the trainers right up to the Pentagon https://twitter.com/WT3ll/status/1679198812483514396
Does Russia "confirming" Prigozhin's death make it more or less likely he's actually dead? 🤔
(IMO he almost certainly is, and they wouldn't have much reason to lie about it if they didn't actually know)
Presumably Russian affiliated disruption of Polish trains "Because the trains use a radio system that lacks encryption or authentication for those commands, Olejnik says, anyone with as little as $30 of off-the-shelf radio equipment can broadcast the command to a Polish train… It is three tonal messages sent consecutively. Once the radio equipment receives it, the locomotive goes to a halt" 😬
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
https://www.wired.com/story/poland-train-radio-stop-attack/
People have been setting fire to relay cabinets on Russian railways for months, with little apparent impact
Liberian flagged bulk carrier Primus (IMO 9310757) appears to be the second ship to successfully depart #Odesa #Ukraine since the end of the grain deal https://gcaptain.com/second-vessel-leaves-odesa-through-temporary-black-sea-corridor/
Another convergence between GOP and Putin policies: Bringing back child labor "Vladimir Putin gave instructions to simplify the employment of minors and to ease limits on child labor, in order to deal with the shortage of at least 660,000 workers" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-aug-25-27
Ben Brockert@reedmideke Have any American proxy wars in the last forty years included trench warfare? The last big war that wasn't dominated by air power must have been before WWII.
@wikkit I sure can't think of any. Certainly not at the kind of scale and intensity as Ukraine. Iran-Iraq war might be kind of analogous, but not a US proxy war, even if we did arms to both sides a bit