Ana MoralesJul 16, 2023
Sheril Kirshenbaum

About 109 billion people have lived & died. Each grain of sand represents 10 million.

This stunning data visualization of human life by Max Roser was published in 2022.

Today there would be 805 green grains representing 8.05 billion people living on Earth. #science #art

Jul 15, 2023 at 1:33pmMetatext
Show threadBosque BillJul 15, 2023
@Sheril I remember when the "conventional wisdom" was that there were as many people alive as had ever lived. Clearly not a data-driven conclusion. πŸ™„
Show threadSimon Jul 16, 2023
@bosquebill @Sheril I thought I had heard this in the last year or so too, so this surprised me as it’s quite a difference!
Show threadSheril KirshenbaumJul 16, 2023
@staustellsimon @bosquebill I seem to remember hearing this in school as a child too
Show threadMarsh RayJul 16, 2023

@Sheril @staustellsimon @bosquebill

I believe it was popularized by The Population Bomb (1968)[1].

The reasoning seemed to go something like:

"The most recent population doubling period was shorter than the previous, so growth is super-exponential. The most recent doubling period was shorter than an average human lifespan, so over half the people who ever lived are alive today."

Forgive me if I am mischaracterizing it. It was at least 35 years ago that I read it in high school, but it seemed like a rather questionable conclusion at the time.

[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb)

The Population Bomb - Wikipedia

Show threadBosque BillJul 17, 2023
@marshray @Sheril @staustellsimon Ha! Thanks for the link and reminder about the book. Don’t remember if I actually read it, but am sure I knew someone who claimed they had and insisted we were all doomed.
Show threadBytebro πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡±Jul 15, 2023
@Sheril I do like an interesting infographic.
Show threadWendy LadyJul 15, 2023

@Sheril this is why I don't believe in ghosts. There would be way too much ghost noise evidence and chatter. It'd be really annoying.

And why would they stay on earth? I'm a ghost now? Send me to effing space! I'm gunna be a space ghost!

Show threadTimoJul 15, 2023
@NerdRage42 @Sheril Especially if ghosts don't affect to physical world what would keep them here? Earth moves 107 000 km/h (= 67 000 mph) so they would disappear to space immediately. And since also Sun and Milky Way move, we'll never return to the same place.
Show threadAT-AT Assault πŸ³οΈβ€βš§οΈJul 15, 2023

@NerdRage42

Coast to Coast?

Show thread𝔼k 𝓋ℴ𝓃 π•‚π”«Γ€π”­π”­π”’π”«π”Ÿπ”’π”―gJul 15, 2023
@Sheril there are too many humans on this earth, and too many new ones coming
Show threadpeteJul 15, 2023
@ekknappenberger @Sheril if only we could fix the annoying leak that's letting grains in from the top the worlds problems would be solved in a 100 or so years :)
Show threadRoyalishJul 15, 2023
@Sheril I don't want to be morbid, but where did all the bodies go?
Show threadWm.sonJul 15, 2023

@Royalish @Sheril

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust...they've all dissolved under the earth's crust!

Show threadGerard VilaJul 15, 2023

@Royalish @Sheril

See the Yorkshire song "On Ilkla Moor Baht 'at".

The song tells of a lover courting [a girl], Mary Jane, on Ilkley Moor without a hat (baht 'at). The singer chides the lover for his lack of headwear – for in the cold winds of Ilkley Moor this will mean his death from exposure. This will in turn result in his burial, the eating of his corpse by worms, the eating of the worms by ducks and finally the eating of the ducks by the singers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Ilkla_Moor_Baht_%27at?wprov=sfla1

On Ilkla Moor Baht 'at - Wikipedia

Show threadclacke: exhausted pixie dream boy πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡­πŸ‡°πŸ’™πŸ’›Jul 16, 2023
@Royalish @Sheril six feet underground, decomposing after a while, or burnt, or if the family didn't have burial traditions, left for the predators and vultures?
Show threadEsslar2Jul 15, 2023
@Sheril Oh, this is so good! I've always wondered about this, how many people have lived but the trouble is, what year, century, or millennia does h. sapiens become h. sapiens?
Show threadWm.sonJul 15, 2023

@flyhigh @Sheril@mastodon.

Thousands of years before agriculture, is my estimate.

Show threadclacke: exhausted pixie dream boy πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡­πŸ‡°πŸ’™πŸ’›Jul 16, 2023

@flyhigh @Sheril en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimate… starts at 50 k years ago and gets to a similar figure, 100+ G people.

It also says at 200 k years ago there were about 200 k humans. If they gave birth to 10x as many kids as an affluent country today, that would be 40 k people born each year.

If we pretend that was stable from 300 k years ago to 50 k years ago that's 4 G people every 100 k years, so that's the difference if you move between 100 k years ago, 200 k years ago etc as the cutoff. Speciation is said to have been 100 k – 300 k years ago.

I believe at some point there was a bottleneck when humans almost went extinct and were down to 2 k people, so the handwaving above should be a high estimate.

Estimates of historical world population - Wikipedia

Show threadEsslar2Jul 16, 2023
@clacke @Sheril This is very good and I will look into it further. 300k years ago seems to be a reasonable start point. I've heard about the bottleneck you bring up and will also get into this some more. I was unaware it may have been such a tiny population. Thanks!
Show threadStefan SchollJul 15, 2023
@Sheril Now imagine a big planet with a very long river and everybody whoever lived waking up there at once. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Your_Scattered_Bodies_Go
To Your Scattered Bodies Go - Wikipedia

Show threadHenkPoleyJul 15, 2023
@Sheril Link: https://ourworldindata.org/the-future-is-vast
Show threadKalle KniivilΓ€Jul 15, 2023
@Sheril Fascinating. For some reason I imagined that the proportion of now living people would be even larger.
Show threadAtmospheric RiverJul 15, 2023
@Sheril powerful!!
Show threadMicahJul 15, 2023
@Sheril the long termers got it wrong. We should be optimizing for the happiness of the dead.
Show threadBarry Schwartz πŸ«–Jul 15, 2023
@Sheril I’m nearing the bottom of that green pile.
Show threadSteve Moore Jul 15, 2023
@Sheril
Each grain a unique collection of molecules and microbes, yet only a fraction of as many as stars in the Milky Way. Such a diverse world we inhabit.
Show threadBrian DearJul 15, 2023
@Sheril Theory: if you flipped the hourglass upside down, you'd depict all the livestock animals currently alive versus all the ones that ever lived?
Show threadRichard HectorJul 15, 2023
@Sheril
So at some point in the future, there'll be no more room for dead people, which will prevent people dying?
Show threado Viri Γ© un robochi de JujuyJul 15, 2023
@Sheril I NEED to boost & share this, but it has no alt text 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
Show threadSheril KirshenbaumJul 16, 2023
@viriato It does
Show threado Viri Γ© un robochi de JujuyJul 16, 2023
@Sheril Sorry, yes, I didn't mean nothing at all, but you're right
Show threadPeter PrincipleJul 16, 2023
@Sheril "As sands through the hourglass, so too, are the days of our lives..."
Show threadGraham CoopJul 16, 2023
@Sheril What's the definition of a person here? Ie how far back in time does the red portion represent. Obviously there's not a concrete time at which humans first appears. That said the exponential growth of pop size may make the precise cutoff not that important.
Show threadJonathan HillJul 16, 2023
@Sheril The accompanying article says that they’re only taking Homo sapiens into account, and beginning 200,000 years ago. But H. sapiens aren’t the only human species.
Show threadPeter RelphJul 16, 2023

@Sheril

Why is it an hourglass? Does the lower half serve any purpose?

Show thread0x10f/kalle/qalleJul 16, 2023

@Sheril It's unclear whether an infographic like this is supposed to represent a 2D object or a 3D one. The ratio of areas is different from the ratio of volumes.

Edit: It must be 2D because the individual grains are shown. But the reader shouldn't have to think this much.

Show threadFelixJul 16, 2023
@Sheril
Very cool!
Show threadDolf van der Haven πŸ˜πŸ“Jul 16, 2023
@Sheril
It must he really busy in heaven. Or hell. Or both...