Mastodawn

Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

Since I've been trying to write down more predictions, I'll say that I expect (> 50% chance) within 1 year, Threads will, have more DAU and MAU than each of {Twitter, Bluesky, Nostr}.

I'm curious where technical discussion will go if the above is correct. I continue to find that Mastodon has higher quality technical discussion than Twitter and it's hard to imagine the people I follow here moving to Threads, but if Threads really wins, it's hard to imagine good tech discussion not moving there.

Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

I'm not really a product person, so this is probably the equivalent of all the bad Twitter infra hot takes randos had, but I don't really buy the comments that Threads will fail because Meta hasn't had a non-acquisition social hit since FB and doesn't understand social. I mean, sure, it may be true that Meta doesn't understand social, but have you seen what Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are doing? I suspect Threads leadership won't make decisions that are nearly as bad.

John Beatty Jul 7, 2023

I've been trying out Threads at https://www.threads.net/@danluu.danluu and it's exactly what I don't want (ranked feed full of influencer stuff I never want to see, etc.), but it's exactly the kind of thing I don't want that looks a lot like what most people might want.

Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are making the kind of thing that I don't want that's also what most people don't want. There's a huge vacuum in this space and it seems like a "I just have to outrun the bear" kind of situation.

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Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

As an example, in threads, I get stuff like this comment on how Threads will win because it can out-iterate Twitter because it has a first-class codebase, which Twitter never had.

No techincal person or even non-technical person who has insight into Twitter and Meta engineering would ever make that comment, but that kind of tech influencer porn gets way more engagement and reach than comments from people who actually understand tech. People want influencer porn and Threads delivers.

Jerome (He/Him)Jul 7, 2023

@danluu armchair strategery seems inevitable with algorithmic feeds

Sumiya Jul 7, 2023

After muting stuff one after another for an hour, I realized that in its present state, threads is not for me. I think the signups are strong proof of a pent-up demand that Zuck has tapped into, and I agree they can succeed just by mistake avoidance (which for some reason is always harder than it appears :)).

My random hot take: Threads is a town fair where I may go for loud entertainment, but Mastodon is where I mostly engage.

🇺🇦 Maksim Lin 💙Jul 7, 2023

@danluu agreed, Threads for me is currently pretty useless until they:
A. add a following only timeline
B. Turn on integration so I can follow people via my timeline here.

Alejandro Martinez Jul 7, 2023

@danluu what does “first-class codebase” even mean? 😆

Leo Tal Jul 7, 2023

@alexito4 @danluu I don't think a codebase can be first-class in the sense of "first-class type", unless I missed some development in metaprogramming. Maybe they just mean something like "very good, world-class"?

[object Object]Jul 7, 2023

@leotal @alexito4 @danluu yes, that is the standard meaning of the term. I assume OP believes that Twitter's codebase is full of a decade of technical debt, while Threads is not.

The only public thing I've seen is that it runs on Instagram's forked python interpreter (Python 3.10 "Cinder"). I would guess that it's using a bunch of existing Instagram infrastructure glued together with a new frontend, not a design that's likely to be especially flexible.

diatone Jul 7, 2023

@objectObject @leotal @alexito4 @danluu I can’t be the only one holding out for the inevitable Meta blog post, something like “How we piggybacked our infra, Python libs, vendor relationships, and trademark to ship MVP to $BIG_NUMBER users in three weeks”

cait Jul 9, 2023

@alexito4 @danluu no alt-text support 🙄 that’s not even 3rd class.

Niki Tonsky Jul 7, 2023

@danluu I read the text on the picture first and thought: no, Dan is a reasonable person, he can’t possibly be agreeing with that

Yao Yue 岳峣 Jul 11, 2023

@danluu For a twitter alternative to be truly valuable to me I need search, chrono, and list. In that order.

Matthew McKeen 🌁Jul 7, 2023

@danluu feel like there's a big opportunity for the fediverse here but we have to be willing to build for it, if we put in the right controls pretty sure it's possible to maintain our culture and also grow into the community we want/need

Ben Jul 7, 2023

@mmckeen @danluu For many people Threads might be what they want from a text-based social network and it can do things the fediverse as is will never be able to do: basically being the TikTok of text snippets, highly algorithm built, with strong trends, converging on daily issues, etc. It’s twitters “main person” energy you’ll never have here (infrastructure-wise!).

Ben Jul 7, 2023

@mmckeen @danluu It means this place will stay a sideshow for people with different needs and communities, but it can also be a less central complement for “normal” people, another app to look at their friends, before jumping into “The Discourse.” I don’t think that’s bad. These things are different and not trying to mix them up might mean people get more of what they want, can spend their time more consciously.

Ben Jul 7, 2023

@mmckeen @danluu In a way it was the power that helped social networks grow a long time, to be different things for different people, in a little-bit-sneaky way. (Facebook: start being the classroom reunion, shift into a telephone book; Instagram: start as a shared diary, shift into a pile of lower-key magazines.)

The AP protocol now allows differently focused networks with specialized platforms and apps to still be connected!

Tom VanAntwerp Jul 7, 2023

@danluu This is my feeling about Threads as well. It's basically stripping away what I liked about Twitter and keeping what I hate about Instagram. Which is a recipe to repulse me, but will probably work very well for people unlike me (a majority).

lonjil Jul 7, 2023

@danluu I'd say that a lot of discussions I see here, including technical ones, would be utterly incapable of existing within Thread's framework of algorithmic feeds, so no matter how successful it is, it will not take over those discussions, and if it kills the Fediverse, they will simply cease to exist, rather than be present there.