Dan LuuJul 7, 2023

Since I've been trying to write down more predictions, I'll say that I expect (> 50% chance) within 1 year, Threads will, have more DAU and MAU than each of {Twitter, Bluesky, Nostr}.

I'm curious where technical discussion will go if the above is correct. I continue to find that Mastodon has higher quality technical discussion than Twitter and it's hard to imagine the people I follow here moving to Threads, but if Threads really wins, it's hard to imagine good tech discussion not moving there.

Show threadDan LuuJul 7, 2023
I'm not really a product person, so this is probably the equivalent of all the bad Twitter infra hot takes randos had, but I don't really buy the comments that Threads will fail because Meta hasn't had a non-acquisition social hit since FB and doesn't understand social. I mean, sure, it may be true that Meta doesn't understand social, but have you seen what Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are doing? I suspect Threads leadership won't make decisions that are nearly as bad.
Show threadDan LuuJul 7, 2023

I've been trying out Threads at https://www.threads.net/@danluu.danluu and it's exactly what I don't want (ranked feed full of influencer stuff I never want to see, etc.), but it's exactly the kind of thing I don't want that looks a lot like what most people might want.

Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are making the kind of thing that I don't want that's also what most people don't want. There's a huge vacuum in this space and it seems like a "I just have to outrun the bear" kind of situation.

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Show threadMatthew McKeen 🌁Jul 7, 2023
@danluu feel like there's a big opportunity for the fediverse here but we have to be willing to build for it, if we put in the right controls pretty sure it's possible to maintain our culture and also grow into the community we want/need
Show threadBen
@mmckeen @danluu For many people Threads might be what they want from a text-based social network and it can do things the fediverse as is will never be able to do: basically being the TikTok of text snippets, highly algorithm built, with strong trends, converging on daily issues, etc. It’s twitters “main person” energy you’ll never have here (infrastructure-wise!).
Jul 7, 2023 at 5:08amWeb
Show threadBenJul 7, 2023
@mmckeen @danluu It means this place will stay a sideshow for people with different needs and communities, but it can also be a less central complement for “normal” people, another app to look at their friends, before jumping into “The Discourse.” I don’t think that’s bad. These things are different and not trying to mix them up might mean people get more of what they want, can spend their time more consciously.
Show threadBenJul 7, 2023

@mmckeen @danluu In a way it was the power that helped social networks grow a long time, to be different things for different people, in a little-bit-sneaky way. (Facebook: start being the classroom reunion, shift into a telephone book; Instagram: start as a shared diary, shift into a pile of lower-key magazines.)

The AP protocol now allows differently focused networks with specialized platforms and apps to still be connected!