Mastodawn

Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

Since I've been trying to write down more predictions, I'll say that I expect (> 50% chance) within 1 year, Threads will, have more DAU and MAU than each of {Twitter, Bluesky, Nostr}.

I'm curious where technical discussion will go if the above is correct. I continue to find that Mastodon has higher quality technical discussion than Twitter and it's hard to imagine the people I follow here moving to Threads, but if Threads really wins, it's hard to imagine good tech discussion not moving there.

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Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

I'm not really a product person, so this is probably the equivalent of all the bad Twitter infra hot takes randos had, but I don't really buy the comments that Threads will fail because Meta hasn't had a non-acquisition social hit since FB and doesn't understand social. I mean, sure, it may be true that Meta doesn't understand social, but have you seen what Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are doing? I suspect Threads leadership won't make decisions that are nearly as bad.

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Dan Luu Jul 7, 2023

I've been trying out Threads at https://www.threads.net/@danluu.danluu and it's exactly what I don't want (ranked feed full of influencer stuff I never want to see, etc.), but it's exactly the kind of thing I don't want that looks a lot like what most people might want.

Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are making the kind of thing that I don't want that's also what most people don't want. There's a huge vacuum in this space and it seems like a "I just have to outrun the bear" kind of situation.

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Tom VanAntwerp

@danluu This is my feeling about Threads as well. It's basically stripping away what I liked about Twitter and keeping what I hate about Instagram. Which is a recipe to repulse me, but will probably work very well for people unlike me (a majority).