Since I've been trying to write down more predictions, I'll say that I expect (> 50% chance) within 1 year, Threads will, have more DAU and MAU than each of {Twitter, Bluesky, Nostr}.
I'm curious where technical discussion will go if the above is correct. I continue to find that Mastodon has higher quality technical discussion than Twitter and it's hard to imagine the people I follow here moving to Threads, but if Threads really wins, it's hard to imagine good tech discussion not moving there.
I've been trying out Threads at https://www.threads.net/@danluu.danluu and it's exactly what I don't want (ranked feed full of influencer stuff I never want to see, etc.), but it's exactly the kind of thing I don't want that looks a lot like what most people might want.
Twitter, Bluesky, and Nostr are making the kind of thing that I don't want that's also what most people don't want. There's a huge vacuum in this space and it seems like a "I just have to outrun the bear" kind of situation.
As an example, in threads, I get stuff like this comment on how Threads will win because it can out-iterate Twitter because it has a first-class codebase, which Twitter never had.
No techincal person or even non-technical person who has insight into Twitter and Meta engineering would ever make that comment, but that kind of tech influencer porn gets way more engagement and reach than comments from people who actually understand tech. People want influencer porn and Threads delivers.
Dan Luu
Yao Yue 岳峣