This seems like a pretty good statement regarding Threads from @Gargron https://blog.joinmastodon.org/2023/07/what-to-know-about-threads/
What to know about Threads

There’s been a lot of speculation around what Threads will be and what it means for Mastodon. We’ve put together some of the most common questions and our responses based on what was launched today.

Mastodon Blog

@mmasnick

“XMPP did not exist on its own outside of nerd circles, while ActivityPub enjoys the support and brand recognition of Mastodon.”

I can hear people shouting “Mastodon isn’t the fediverse!” from here.

@hybridhavoc @mmasnick Thinking Mastodon exists outside nerd circles seems...disconnected from reality, from my experience so far.
@koberulz @hybridhavoc @mmasnick it’s *far* broader in adoption than XMPP ever was.
@ncallaway @hybridhavoc @mmasnick That was before my time so I can't comment, but Mastodon is absolutely a niche and nerd-heavy platform. It is in no way mainstream.

@koberulz @ncallaway @hybridhavoc @mmasnick I currently agree as I know:
* nobody from my USENET days are here
* nobody from recent IRC (last time I checked in was ~two years ago)
* nobody from Facebook; some have bounced from FB to G+ to Hellsite to back to FB
* large number from Hellsite, but none from Work whom are heavy in VR/coders/tech/AI. Latter still mostly on Hellsite, and 'curious' about BlueSky. Spread is from GenX to GenZ.

Mastodon is still pretty nerd and niche.

@ShrikeTron @ncallaway @hybridhavoc @mmasnick Between all my other socials combined, I know of two people who are here.
@mmasnick @Gargron The assumption that Threads will ever actually federate with anyone outside their immediate sphere of influence seems contrary to everything we understand about Meta.

@tob @mmasnick @Gargron Quite so. Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple have been federated in the past. Via, of all things, XMPP.

They disabled that because isolated silos drive adoption, and the numbers are the only thing investors care about. (Facebook Chat, GTalk, and  Messages are still very XMPP behind-the-scenes.)

@mmasnick @Gargron Sounds good to me. There’s no way to unpush the thousands of panic buttons that have been preemptively pushed, but it’s a very reasonable, accurate statement of the situation. #threads

@mmasnick @Gargron

Good article but considering Meta history, I just don't know... Samething if Twitterdumb joins.

I have no trust with corporations because its all about the $. Back in the day, the Internet was about people and information.

I use XMPP and run a server. That is what it was. Not this corporate controlled world we all seem to be so okay with.

@mmasnick @Gargron

All that did was raise my paranoia level. The only thing that could make reading that worse would be hearing Alexa read it.

@mmasnick @Gargron

[quote]

Nobody on Mastodon can insert advertising into your user interface except the server you are signed up with and logged into. By default, Mastodon does not include any functionality to display ads. Unless you use Threads, you will not see any ads from Threads.

[/quote]

The remote Threads server could easily insert advertising content as part of the message data, I would think.

@woozle @mmasnick @Gargron And they'd be defederated by the admins of every server I can think of.

@tob Including me.

...because we want to place every hindrance in the path of EEE, even if we can't stop it. (I don't know that we can't stop it, but I don't know that we definitely can either.)

@mmasnick @Gargron

@tob @woozle @mmasnick @Gargron

Agreed. I'm not planning to block Threads straight away, but play a wait-and-see approach.

Hell, I might even follow a few of their users, who knows?

But… any shenanigans like mass hash-tag spam or adulterating of users' posts with advertising content… and they'll be out on their rear.

As for the non-technical folk who mention Threads to me, I'll be suggesting they look at Mastodon, et all for the full authentic experience.

@woozle Threads certainly could insert ads to content they propagate through ActivityPub. I imagine that if they did so, many instances would defederate with them.

@woozle @mmasnick @Gargron

Hashtag spam is more likely ~ most people here are fine with an artist selling their stuff, but not some "influencer" pushing this week's "super food" or BarbieShampoo™

Edit: ads added to posts would be what the thread people see too, so not even popular there

@olavf @mmasnick @Gargron I think they could pretty easily set it up so only remote instances got the ads. ...not that people who flock to join yet another Facebook project are likely to be bothered much by commerciality in the first place.

@woozle @mmasnick @Gargron

I don't know how well that would work. It's waaaay above my pay grade.
But my understanding, anything would have to be based on your public profile/posts and maybe who you interact with there. Everything is routed thru your server so they don't even get an IP to match with your FB account (if you even have one)

@woozle
To pretend a company with their kind of money wouldn't simply spin up instance accounts to "amplify" Threads "content" onto other servers local timelines is disingenuous at best. This company has no scruples and that's going to increase the moderation pressure on many instances.
@mmasnick @Gargron

@mmasnick

Not even a mention about any kind of NDA.

Will we even know if such NDA exists @Gargron ?

#fediVerse #threads #META

@mmasnick @Gargron For Meta, it's all about getting data-scraping apps onto your phone. I've been saying that Threads will have barbs, but the barbs will not be activitypub/federation. The barbs will be the Threads app specifically.

@mmasnick @Gargron Good stuff. I appreciate Mastodon’s even-handed approach, and the architecture and other safety steps it takes to allow users as much seamless operation as possible with at least some hope of limits on info harvesting.

To users: Don’t trust Meta. Skip Threads. The Mastodon app is better by virtue of not being part of Meta.

@mmasnick @Gargron
"Our software is built on the reasonable assumption that third party servers cannot be trusted."
I've never liked mastodon more.

We have been advocating for interoperability between platforms for years.

In a nutshell, “We won’t defederate with Threads”.

@mmasnick @Gargron
So in the article is implied that "no relevant traffic is produced between instances that don't share followers" how does that relate to a Toot going "viral", let's say 500K people interacting (Fav, ReToot, Reply) how it translate to 1M people interacting and 100M?
@mmasnick @Gargron It seems like everyone is under the assumption that Threads will be a success. To me there’s a good chance it will suffer the same fate as the metaverse.
@mmasnick @Gargron Didn't @Gargron speak with Meta behind closed doors and sign an NDA? How can he even be trusted at this point? He isn't allowed to say the truth.

@mmasnick I really can't say I'm satisfied with the answer to the Embrace Extend Extinguish question be "We have Mastodon Brand Recognition therefore we will be fine."

The birdsite has the brand recognition of an exploding dumpster fire and the bulk of its users are still clinging on for one major reason, the social graph. People you follow there that you can't replicate elsewhere.

@mmasnick
If that's Meta's bid, to attract the most popular users and make itself the largest instance, it can use the weight of that social graph to enact widely unpopular stances and protocols, or simply cut themselves off from the open protocol entirely. Defederating from the largest instance with the most influential social graph could be a bigger risk to smaller instances than to Meta, if their users aren't willing to burn their social graph on principles.
@mmasnick @Gargron he nailed it. As he says, this is a victory for everything decentralized social media is about.
@mmasnick @Gargron I'm sold on the idea brah...
@mmasnick @Gargron you mean if I post a picture of my ass on mastodon dot social mark zuckery can hide it from his sheeple? FUCK

@mmasnick @Gargron Yep. So much of the noise and criticism is rooted in fears that range from unlikely to impossible (like Threads somehow injecting ads into Mastodon feeds).

I’m pretty iffy about server owners who proactively block Threads rather than take the time to learn what federation with it means – namely, that users on either platform can follow and message each other, and that’s really about it.

@joemcken @mmasnick @Gargron

Yeah because it'd be completely impossible to create an ad as a normal post, and publish it to activepub with a popular hashtag. "But everyone would defederate" no you wouldn't, because now users are interacting between and you'd have to deal with the outrage, that will then lead people move to threads to keep their connections. Anyone who isn't preemptively defederating won't be doing it later no matter what threads does.

This is just how people work.

@JoTheBuzzyard @mmasnick @Gargron I mean, I don’t think it’s likely Threads will push ads as normal posts to begin with, because it would be stupidly counter-productive and cause nothing but anger, which they desperately want to avoid when launching a new app.

But also, even if some corporate account posted an ad to a hashtag, everyone could just mute/block that account? It would be a one-second annoyance that’s fixed with one click of a button. And they know that.

Just seems unlikely to me.

@joemcken @mmasnick @Gargron
Oh no they wouldn't do it day one. They'd do it day 500 because now the connections are so strong you can't defederate without huge issues and the shareholders ask "why is threads not profitable".

It's an avenue to squeeze out profits. They will use that avenue. It won't backfire because as I said, the big mastodon instances won't defederate because they want to be popular. There is literally nothing threads can do that will cause mastodon.social to defederate.

@mmasnick
A company with an infinite growth mindset and a complete lack of ethics isn't going to be satisfied with an audience they can't monetize. Either they're going to find ways to monetize Masto users or they're not going to add interoperability, but there is no universe in which Meta let's Masto instances get the content for free. That would be antithetical to everything they've ever done.
@Gargron
A note of caution about signing up for Threads - CLP Blog

Twitter has become such  a mess that  it is  not surprising that there has been a rush of sign-ons for the new service offered by  Meta to compete in that space. But note the following language in  the Supplemental Privacy Policy :  You may deactivate your Threads profile at any time, but your Threads profile [...]

CLP Blog
@mmasnick @Gargron Excellent, fact based review of Threads and its impact on the fediverse, thanks for sharing.

@mmasnick He misses the key issue IMO - that what matters here is fedi culture and federating w #Threads risks that being swamped by Threads culture. He pretends that moving instances is effective (it's hard and you lose too much) and also that running your own instance is a practical proposition.

It's a very poor response IMO, but seems typical.

Fedi folk are well meaning but overly focused on size and opportunity, thinking like tech bros, and not what makes Mastodon different: it's culture.

@mmasnick @Gargron 👎🏼 Won’t download threads.
@mmasnick @Gargron Really helpful details on Threads and Mastodon. Thank you.
@mmasnick @Gargron @Teri_Kanefield So I tried Threads today. One of the biggest things for me, that will make me stick with Mastodon, is the fact that it shows you posts from anyone… not just people you follow. I’m not a fan of that feature. I think if they do in fact federate, it will bring more users to Mastodon because over here we’ll be able to follow Thread-users but on our own terms. (ie: feed control and no ads) #Threads
@mmasnick @Gargron so, I did join #threads because I am seriously sick of #twitter - but, here is the thing- Mastodon- with all its complexities- feels more of home than Threads. I amhoping Mastodon will be the stable alternative to Twitter
@neerja @mmasnick That's what we're working towards! 🙂
@mmasnick @Gargron Except of course it assumes a certain kind of "fair play" from Meta.
No ads in your feed? Sure, unless they just pump them into your follows output without their consent.
Can Meta embrace-extinguish the ActivityPub protocol? Of course they can. They start with "let's have a council of peers", then it's "we're big AP users, our adaptations are sensible" then it's "Mastodon is holding back AP...". It's not unreasonable to hope for the best, but good faith feels naive.
@mmasnick @Gargron You want to track what Thread posters get traction on Mastodon? Short URL service. Sure, admins could kill those links, or pre-follow them, but it's whack-a-mole.
@mmasnick @anildash @Gargron this take is naive no? What stopped xmpp to "just go back where it was before"?
@mmasnick @Gargron does this mean we can follow a Threads user here on mastodon? And vise versa? How exactly?
@lcparra @Gargron not yet, but once they turn on federation, it should be possible.
@mmasnick @Gargron - thanks ! well written. I’m embarrassed to admit that for a moment I thought (and hoped!) you’d explain how threading worked on Mastodon. But this is good too! #Threads