Precise RandomnessJun 28, 2023
This Week In The 90s

Found something remarkable (and also quite sad).

In 1997, Wired published "The Long Boom", a hyper-optimistic article about how we'd achieve Utopia by 2020.

The authors included notes on some "scenario spoilers"—negative events that might send is in a worse direction.

...and those spoilers turned out to be almost spookily accurate.

https://www.wired.com/1997/07/longboom/

Jun 28, 2023 at 11:02amWeb
Show threadQueen of AnxietyJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s Eh.

2: They actually haven’t been a bust, but the economic boom from it has all gone to the wealthy.

3: Russia was already a kleptocracy run by mafia-types and has always been xenophobic.

4: Depends on your definition of Eastern Europe, but many joined in 2004, with the latest in 2013 being Croatia. Yes, Brexit, but the EU is carrying on fine without it.

6: Crime is still largely down in the US at least, and terrorism is no worse than in 97.

Show threadQueen of AnxietyJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s
7: Cancer has not overwhelmed our health system. (And “ill-prepared” is a very USian POV.)

8: Hasn’t happened, even with continued unrest in the Middle East. Alternate energy sources continue to grow.

9: Covid was bad, but only 1/10 as bad as that estimate.

10: Yes there is pushback, especially in the US and UK, but not to the extent that progress has stopped.

Which means 1 right, and it took 24-25 years to really heat up.

Show threadQueen of AnxietyJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Some of the things feel more real than they actually are. Even our near-peer contest with China hasn’t done much to dampen things. The true culprit is, imo, the advances in technology making the rich richer, as well as (in the US at least) our failure to tax them at a reasonable rate.
Show threadFeralRobotsJun 28, 2023
@queenofnewyork
...& that's a HUGE miss on their part, since the premise of the whole thing is that the New Economy would democritize everything.
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Show threadSteve PopovichJun 28, 2023
@FeralRobots @queenofnewyork @ThisWeekInThe90s whereas instead it has only accelerated the movement of wealth to the (top fraction of) 1%.
Show threadFeralRobotsJun 28, 2023
@sspopovich
I didn't understand their reasoning at the time & don't understand it now*, but Kelly for one has repeatedly doubled-down on it.
🤷
@queenofnewyork @ThisWeekInThe90s
_
*I'm probably giving them too much credit for intellectual honesty.
Show threadThePdogJun 28, 2023
@queenofnewyork Total COVID deaths is approaching 7 million, so more like 3/10 than 1/10. Total infections is well over 600 million, so 3x worse.
Show threadKrupoJul 1, 2023
@queenofnewyork @ThisWeekInThe90s #1 is less of a thing than many others on that list.
Show threadMartijn VosJun 28, 2023

@queenofnewyork @ThisWeekInThe90s

I would definitely call crypto currencies a bust. It hasn't petered out yet, but its original promise (as a currency) hasn't worked out at all, and instead it became an overhyped investment distraction. Some other tech promises, like self-driving cars, also don't seem to be happening. Although there's also a lot of tech that did pay off.

#6: I read the description as mostly being about the fear caused by it. And fear is definitely up. In the wake of 9/11, many terrible laws were passed, and the world as a whole got a lot more distrustful. I think this is the big one that has loomed heavy over the past 20 years. It has destabilised the world and made people a lot more xenophobic. Nazis are back, for crying out loud.

Show threadQueen of AnxietyJun 28, 2023
@mcv @ThisWeekInThe90s Decent point on the fear. Though Nazis never went away, they just were shunned more than they are now.
Show threadMichael Slavitch 🍁🇨🇦🇺🇦🍁Jun 29, 2023
@queenofnewyork @ThisWeekInThe90s you missed 9/11 and two trillion dollar wars that resulted from it.
Show threadLyle Solla-YatesJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s wow, they even got the plague right
Show threadJennifer DeseoJun 29, 2023
@Lyle @ThisWeekInThe90s Plagues are kinda predictable tho, based on rate of mutation in viral genome. Health experts had been expecting a big flu pandemic at least since early 1990s. It just turned out to be a coronavirus this time.
Show threadThe FerridgeJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
oh wow, that is *eerie*
Show threadJack GrahamJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s I remember reading that and thinking some of the spoilers were pretty likely. Sucks being right sometimes.
Show threadNosaj  Jun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

As suspected, we are in fact in the bad timeline.

Show threadEnrique Vélez 🍔Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s i find it fascinating that the link still works, I was in high school back then and the internet was still a baby. Also, the use of the word "meme".
Show threadSamJun 29, 2023
@201d @ThisWeekInThe90s Yeah, using “meme” is kinda making me question that this is actually from 1997.
Show threadEnrique Vélez 🍔Jun 29, 2023
@samtrap84 @ThisWeekInThe90s nah, it meant something else back then.
Show threadAndy   #RIPYassieJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s I remember thinking that article was hopefully optimistic. I need to pay more attention to this section!
Show threadWndlBJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s #COVID19 had a lower CFR...
Show threadAlice 🔥 Fall Femme FataleJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Sometimes I kind of wish today's problems hadn't been so predictable. Maybe cishet white folks didn't see it coming, but.... The signs were always there.
Show threadanne. Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s https://archive.org/details/eu_Wired-1997-07_OCR
Wired 1997 07 OCR : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Wired 1997 07 OCR

Internet Archive
Show threadArthur WyattJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s suprised to see the pushback in 6, like 9/11 and subsequent response didn’t shake the works massively for the worse.
Show threadacbJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s @arthurwyatt September 11 2001 is the point at which The Long Boom turned into The Long Siege
Show threadArthur WyattJun 28, 2023
@acb @ThisWeekInThe90s “that end of history you thought you were having? Guess again”
Show threadChris StefanJun 29, 2023

@acb @ThisWeekInThe90s @arthurwyatt Other events I’d say killed ‘The Long Boom’ were the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the Dot Com crash, and the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession.

That said, 9/11 feels like the inflection point where the US “long national nightmare of peace and prosperity” (to quote the Onion) ended.

Show threadWndlBJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s The authors were https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-m&q=Peter+Schwartz and https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-m&q=Peter+Leyden
Bevor Sie zur Google Suche weitergehen

Show threadDavid Mitchell Jun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

Today: oh no! Everything is awful because these things no one could have predicted.

… 🙄

Show thread Why Not Zoidberg? 🦑Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Pretty close but the "major ecological crisis" was already ongoing and they should have been aware of it.
Show threadSchnabeltierJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Wowie
Show threadFrankie SaxxJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

"Spookily accurate" or "completely foreseeable"?

Show threadSupportive Tree-based lifeformJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

My response:

Show threadKaylynneJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s I don’t know if you can consider predictions based on historical tendencies of certain populations to be particularly “spooky” tbh.
Show threadcatsynth / amanda cJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s perhaps of all of them, 10 depresses me the most 😿
Show threadokanogen VerminEnemyFromWithinJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Wow. Six out of ten....
Show threadDerek Dahlsad [INACTIVE]Jun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s
1997: Wow, even if three of those happen it'd be catastrophic, but that'd be extremely unlikely

2023: *looks around nervously*

Show threadRobbie ColemanJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s JFC that's too spooky
Show threadCodhisattvaJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s @lisamelton if I recall, the authors formed the Global Business Network and advised major corporations on futurist scenarios and long range planning. Stewart Brand joined Peter in GBN and for a short while things looked optimistic. I don’t know what happened other than what Naomi Klein’s book The Shock Doctrine details as the counter weight of greed prevailed.
Show threadJohn LeopoldJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Turns out we could see it coming.
Show threadfluxionJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s only big one they missed was rampant corporate corruption and takeover of government motivated purely by greed. Imagine if all those record profits were instead quality of life improvements throughout all of society. I'd like to see that timeline.
Show threadFeralRobotsJun 28, 2023
@fluxion
I wouldn't say they *missed* it. More like, *actively encouraged* it.
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Show threadchetmanJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s @mikeabney wow I remember that article.

Ooof.

Show threadLarry GarfieldJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Oof, 10 out of 10. Well done, Wired?
Show threadZalasur 🐸🇺🇦Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Damn.
Show threadskottkJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s oh, and we were _this_ close!
Show threadJon IppolitoJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s It seems that futurists are better at predicting what will go wrong than what will go right.
Show threadmʕ•ﻌ•ʔm bitPickupJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

Somehow it looks like "the free-market economy" and it's existing power structures simply bended the road at key point decisions always towards the existing structures, preventing key tec like solar, wind as well as biodiversity preservation to happen. The "liberal" democracy is and wasn't able to make the right choices due to "cultural" stubbornness and prevailing monetary interests.

The limits of consumerism for everyone weren't taken into account.
"Club of Rome" unheard.

Show threadMxhradJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s

That last point is incredibly sad, because that's exactly what's happening right now.

Show thread🇺🇦 haxadecimal 🚫👑Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s We ignored the warnings and built the Torment Nexus.
:-(
Show threadAndrew (Television Executive)Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s God danmn
Show threaddanteyoustayJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s Deeply disturbing!
Show threadAnatisadalia 🐞🌺Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Show threadAnatisadalia 🐞🌺Jun 28, 2023
@TacoTownMayor
Show threadRichard W. Woodley ELBOWS UP 🇨🇦🌹🚴‍♂️📷 🗺️Jun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
New conspiracy theory.
The people at the WEF(or insert bogeyman of your choice) read that and said let's make it happen.
Show threadShoqJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s They nailed most of them, but #10 may be the most important.
Show threadWendy LadyJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s awkward
Show threadFeralRobotsJun 28, 2023
@ThisWeekInThe90s
Leaving aside that 2 & 3 were already (& obviously) well underway at the time, the whole thing was complete nonsense when that article was published. That whole "new economy" line made hilariously unwarranted assumptions about social inertia & even distribution of the future. One could say they were deeply selective in their reading of cyberpunk.
Show threadAviva GaryJun 28, 2023

@ThisWeekInThe90s It's almost like you should listen to those warning you about the things...

Only problem is they didn't go far enough even though it was all completely foreseeable

Show threadErosBlog Bacchus has moved!Jun 29, 2023
@Aviva_Gary @ThisWeekInThe90s I was a Wired subscriber in those days, and I remember reading that article in the magazine. (Magazines! I miss paper magazines.) The warnings didn't really register with me, nor I suspect with many other people at the time, because we were all swimming in the same warm sea of techno-optimism.