back up for J. like JJApr 16, 2023
1/ Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on April 16, 2023 :
#Russian r globally not able to conduct anymore their war. The frontline is about the same for the last couple of months now. Only #Prigozhin's own "project" to conduct #Wagner troops to seize #Bakhmut remains.
But as he has "killed" his " low-end manpower potentials" he is now depending mostly to Ru army will & materials (or next "steal" of new recruits)
they r progressing in #Bakhmut though
#UkraineMap
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2/ I'm not going to do an extensive review of the frontline as nothing has changed for the last couple of months and as in certain areas, there is still this "tango" moves near areas like #Kreminna for example.
the situation is always evolving there but basically UKR is still "poking the bear" as much as they can (and sometimes they had bad bad situations to deal with because it backfires at them.. but globally, now that the main wave of "winter conscripts" are "gone".. it's much easier to go
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3/ so as for the situation in the main areas around #Bakhmut :
"Battles for the city of #Bakhmut do not stop. The enemy launched an attack near the settlement of Khromove, but was unsuccessful." Gen Staff as of 06:00, of course checked separatly on diff sources, it appears that #Russians r literally not able to conduct ANY serious offensive even on small villages/zones there.
This is frankly quite a surprise even for me (read spreadsheet), as i was (still) expecting Ru culmination early July.
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4/ Anyway they are "cooked" apparently, but only for "one part" (be aware of it.. there is still around 250 -300k Ru in Ukraine now) & also preparing some defense, keeping some materials "available" for next round of recruits..
so basically now Ru in the Donetsk region, are shelling as much as they can #Vasyukivka, #Minkivka, #OrikhovoVasylivka, #Novomarkove, #Hryhorivka, #Bakhmut, #Ivanivs'ke, #ChasivYar, #Stupochky, #Kostyantynivka, #Dyliyivka and #NiuYork (yeah they'll never take that one!)
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5/ now regarding #Bakhmut : #Wagner troops r currently gaining some grounds & really hard battle are taking place directly on Korsunskogo Street and now past the railway station (i've witnessed a back & forth -at least 2 times this week of location "changing hand") but now, Ru dynamics seems really strong there.
Also on the north part of the city.
As said the only thing that would have really worried me was if Ru have seized #Bohdanivka & or #Khromove
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6/ and of course in the south area near main LOCs to Ivaniske->#ChassivYar
but as said several time, as long as you see an army have such a masterful conduct in keeping alive his main "life's lines" (and keeping away Ru from their flanks) really speaks volume!!

Also attacks on #Khromove have failed. yes Ru headed there but realized it was not possible to "keep it" without huge losses so they really got back at least 1km back. they r mad but can't do shit! (pardon my french!-)

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7/ Now in #Bakhmut there is some more changes in the past days & now it seems that what remains of Wagner (#Prigozhin for the first time ever ask to "call it a day, & move away from all this) with more RU elite troops, took full control over Bakhmut train station & several key points (all geoloc & verified = arrows)

so basically to be honest there is a strong hexagon under UKR control (actually the more stable substructure in a 2d complex structure ;-) of about 1,5 to 2km2

it seems that

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8/ Russians will be able going like that to maybe take the city by the 1st of May and (as they totally failed to seized it for the "one year special military operation anniversary" wished by the Kremlin back in 24th of February) it could be their actual only "dead rabbit" to show back home as a triumphing trophy ! (lol they can lose much much more in coming months)

Anyway, that's about it. about the maps and the gen assessment.

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9/ now as for some datas ...

there is one more "craycray" thing from Ru. is that i've noticed for the last weeks / couple months they are trully "mirroring" the UKR reports regarding alleged Ru losses.
(you'll get it in next sheet)

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10/ recap of the week and past weeks and also "projection" (sorry no time today to re-explain all for the nth time if you are new)

and week 56 just for comparative ref (with quite important Ru losses recorded, for you to grasp the diff of attrition rate depending the volume of losses per week)

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11/ and last but not least...
my famous spread sheet about both Ukr & Ru losses with diff scenarii.

i have my own idea... some highlights..
for the one of you who just can't help making your own "soup" : help yourself!
(i've read too many crazy things regarding that subject in last year or so)

Cheers!

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12/ i might come back later on for some additional datas/ref..
but right now i'm going back to enjoy my well overdue and much appreciated non working day !

see you around! 'im out for now...
Cheers!

Show threadfanf42Apr 16, 2023
@HeliosRunner super thread, merci. Ca fait plaisir d'avoir un peu de recul, de voir l'ampleur de ma stagnation russe en dehors du brouhaha des pas de tango quotidien 👍
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@fanf42 merci
Apr 17, 2023 at 7:13amWeb