Mastodawn

back up for J. like JJ

1/ Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on April 16, 2023 :
#Russian r globally not able to conduct anymore their war. The frontline is about the same for the last couple of months now. Only #Prigozhin's own "project" to conduct #Wagner troops to seize #Bakhmut remains.
But as he has "killed" his " low-end manpower potentials" he is now depending mostly to Ru army will & materials (or next "steal" of new recruits)
they r progressing in #Bakhmut though
#UkraineMap

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

2/ I'm not going to do an extensive review of the frontline as nothing has changed for the last couple of months and as in certain areas, there is still this "tango" moves near areas like #Kreminna for example.
the situation is always evolving there but basically UKR is still "poking the bear" as much as they can (and sometimes they had bad bad situations to deal with because it backfires at them.. but globally, now that the main wave of "winter conscripts" are "gone".. it's much easier to go

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

3/ so as for the situation in the main areas around #Bakhmut :
"Battles for the city of #Bakhmut do not stop. The enemy launched an attack near the settlement of Khromove, but was unsuccessful." Gen Staff as of 06:00, of course checked separatly on diff sources, it appears that #Russians r literally not able to conduct ANY serious offensive even on small villages/zones there.
This is frankly quite a surprise even for me (read spreadsheet), as i was (still) expecting Ru culmination early July.

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

4/ Anyway they are "cooked" apparently, but only for "one part" (be aware of it.. there is still around 250 -300k Ru in Ukraine now) & also preparing some defense, keeping some materials "available" for next round of recruits..
so basically now Ru in the Donetsk region, are shelling as much as they can #Vasyukivka, #Minkivka, #OrikhovoVasylivka, #Novomarkove, #Hryhorivka, #Bakhmut, #Ivanivs'ke, #ChasivYar, #Stupochky, #Kostyantynivka, #Dyliyivka and #NiuYork (yeah they'll never take that one!)

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

5/ now regarding #Bakhmut : #Wagner troops r currently gaining some grounds & really hard battle are taking place directly on Korsunskogo Street and now past the railway station (i've witnessed a back & forth -at least 2 times this week of location "changing hand") but now, Ru dynamics seems really strong there.
Also on the north part of the city.
As said the only thing that would have really worried me was if Ru have seized #Bohdanivka & or #Khromove

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

6/ and of course in the south area near main LOCs to Ivaniske->#ChassivYar
but as said several time, as long as you see an army have such a masterful conduct in keeping alive his main "life's lines" (and keeping away Ru from their flanks) really speaks volume!!

Also attacks on #Khromove have failed. yes Ru headed there but realized it was not possible to "keep it" without huge losses so they really got back at least 1km back. they r mad but can't do shit! (pardon my french!-)

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

7/ Now in #Bakhmut there is some more changes in the past days & now it seems that what remains of Wagner (#Prigozhin for the first time ever ask to "call it a day, & move away from all this) with more RU elite troops, took full control over Bakhmut train station & several key points (all geoloc & verified = arrows)

so basically to be honest there is a strong hexagon under UKR control (actually the more stable substructure in a 2d complex structure ;-) of about 1,5 to 2km2

it seems that

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

8/ Russians will be able going like that to maybe take the city by the 1st of May and (as they totally failed to seized it for the "one year special military operation anniversary" wished by the Kremlin back in 24th of February) it could be their actual only "dead rabbit" to show back home as a triumphing trophy ! (lol they can lose much much more in coming months)

Anyway, that's about it. about the maps and the gen assessment.

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

9/ now as for some datas ...

there is one more "craycray" thing from Ru. is that i've noticed for the last weeks / couple months they are trully "mirroring" the UKR reports regarding alleged Ru losses.
(you'll get it in next sheet)

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

10/ recap of the week and past weeks and also "projection" (sorry no time today to re-explain all for the nth time if you are new)

and week 56 just for comparative ref (with quite important Ru losses recorded, for you to grasp the diff of attrition rate depending the volume of losses per week)

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

11/ and last but not least...
my famous spread sheet about both Ukr & Ru losses with diff scenarii.

i have my own idea... some highlights..
for the one of you who just can't help making your own "soup" : help yourself!
(i've read too many crazy things regarding that subject in last year or so)

Cheers!

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

12/ i might come back later on for some additional datas/ref..
but right now i'm going back to enjoy my well overdue and much appreciated non working day !

see you around! 'im out for now...
Cheers!

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

13/ i had some questions in private, prior to Easter holidays about this and this is the best way to answer it :

"Will Russia launch a large-scale missile attack on Easter?" And on other holidays or anniversaries of tragedies? Significant dates and days of large-scale shelling across Ukraine were compared. Only 5 shellings fall on significant dates. Russia always commits terror, no matter what day it is. On the Russian calendar, every day is the day of death.

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

14/ 4 civilians were killed, 16 were wounded in Russian shelling - the situation at 09:00 on April 16 According to the information provided by the Situation Center of UKR min def, during the past 24 hours, Russian troops shelled the territory of 8 regions of Ukraine. In total, 97 settlements were shelled with various types of weapons (mortars, tanks, artillery, MLRS, S-300 air defense systems, UAVs, tactical aircraft), and damage to 60 infrastructure facilities was confirmed.

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

15/ last gen staff report
part 1&2

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

16/ so it means we can certainly count to date approx 2300 to 2500 dead officers...
not that they were "extraordinary" officers but at least they were there and some were really trying to lead and protect their men...
you can't train in 6 months, what you can only train in 2 to 6 years... (in order to have a real good captain for example)
Wagner is employing some ex officers with real knowledge but now they almost have only "schmucks" to command.

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

17/ Almost constant volume of "violent events" (even if more "localized" this year/last year) in the Donets area, near Bakhmut / Avdiivka / Mariinka

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

18/ & finally for today recap
a feed (in Russian) from #Prigozhin's Wagner group, says their satellite data show some 200k Ukrainians soldiers currently held in reserve, not 35k. (which is common "understanding" right now..) He anticipates a fierce fight.

i've also heard up to 80k with special new reserve... but could not find any other sources to "validate" this 200k (remember it is common for these guys to make their "enemy" more potent & numerous than they actually are, just to explain

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

19/ their own struggles/difficulties & show to the "audience" that they are more brave that you can imagine for fighting such forces ... etc as they truly are..

https://www.ft.com/content/01a819c0-82f5-4eb3-b012-9dc97d93cde6?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

Military briefing: Ukraine’s ‘high-risk’ bid to breach Russia’s fortified frontline

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Financial Times

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

20/ last UKR videos if you want to really have a small hint / "feeling" of what is going on right now..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIag-vEUong

or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eAladVrEk8

Що з поповненням піхоти у Бахмуті?

YouTube

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

21/ last recap just for ref as i did not pinned it in my regular time line:
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1644779846315147289

and the previous one
https://elk.zone/mastodon.world/@HeliosRunner/110159002859590191

J. like JJ 🇫🇷 🇺🇦 #UkraineMap on Twitter

“1/ Quick update regarding the Operational situation update #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on April 08, 2023 in #Bakhmut : #Wagner troops r currently gaining some grounds & really hard battle are taking place directly on Korsunskogo Street also close to railway station #UkraineMap”

Twitter

Antoine Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner Merci bcp pr l'update !

ninninEO Apr 16, 2023

Merci pour les infos/recap.

Bonne semaine à tous

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 👍

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 😡 🤬

Dominique6602 Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner Merci beaucoup et bonne continuation.

sim dusho Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner During Syrian War, terror bombing (markets, hospitals, schools...) occurs in hours preceding an International Summit or Reunion.

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 😞

Kipik Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner
Merci !!!!

Gilles Maguet Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner Merci merci !! Et merci de "nourrir" ici plutôt que là bas 👍

Dietz Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner factuel et précis as usual merci +++

Flomiedzyrzecki Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner Merci et bonne fin de dimanche juste pour le@plaisir

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

@flomiedzyrzecki merci

fanf42 Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner super thread, merci. Ca fait plaisir d'avoir un peu de recul, de voir l'ampleur de ma stagnation russe en dehors du brouhaha des pas de tango quotidien 👍

back up for J. like JJ Apr 17, 2023

RICHARD Stephanie Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner Merci Jérôme 😊 Biz

back up for J. like JJ Apr 16, 2023

@RichardStephanie hello merci

Lilautresor Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 👍

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner merci pour ce point de situation et bon dimanche

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 👍 😀

harps Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner french people like hexagons 🤣

Cigalam Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner 👍

Matvador78 Apr 16, 2023

@HeliosRunner merci pour le travail on est mieux ici que chez elon ! Bonne soirée et au plaisir de vous lire