Tobias Stretch
davekarpfMy latest, on substack: “how long does Twitter have left?” (I give it six months)
https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/how-long-does-twitter-have-left
irwin@davekarpf The point about saving face by blaming regulation is spot-on. Prescient.
sabik@davekarpf
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J. P. Gownder (கவுண்டர்)@davekarpf A very good piece. (I subscribe to your email Substack and read it this morning). It will be interesting to see when all these chickens come home to roost.
k cavaliere@davekarpf 6 months sounds about right before the #Twitanic completely sinks. #Muskrat is being seen for who he is - a charming, but malicious, "personality" with rapidly failing credibility. Even if he manages to survive this debacle-who is going to trust him with a payment, news, or ad platform? Or a tunnel, car, or spaceship?
The "blind them with brilliance" was a farce. That was other people's work. Now he can't "dazzle them with BS" either.
Seth Yoder@davekarpf excellent read
Aske Kammer
Kevin Elliott@davekarpf Could Musk withdraw from the European market to avoid regulatory punishment?
@kevinjelliott I suspect he could, but that would further depress ad sales, shrink the user base, and probably hurt Tesla’s brand in Europe.
MaybeMyMonkeys@kevinjelliott @davekarpf he fired everyone who could delete the user data without corrupting the data stores and prove it to the regulators.
Laurens Hof@davekarpf Amazing piece, thanks a lot.
One thing to add: Tesla is finally getting some better regulatory scrutiny. This makes it all the more worthwhile (from the perspective of Musk) to frame regulators as the bad guy. So framing regulators as the bad guys that led to the downfall of Twitter is a great place thing to hide behind in advance, knowing that the lawsuits about FSD etc are coming up.
One thing to add: Tesla is finally getting some better regulatory scrutiny. This makes it all the more worthwhile (from the perspective of Musk) to frame regulators as the bad guy. So framing regulators as the bad guys that led to the downfall of Twitter is a great place thing to hide behind in advance, knowing that the lawsuits about FSD etc are coming up.
𝙺𝚊𝚛𝚕 DEFEND DEMOCRACY 𝙱𝚞𝚗𝚍𝚊𝚢 🗽@davekarpf Thanks. I just posted a link to your Substack article on Post.
(((o))) Acoustic Mirror@davekarpf "Twitter Event Horizon" has a nice ring to it.
Although I still think the "coup" he's fearing won't take place while he's in the loo answering Mother Nature's call - it'll most likely be a Tesla shareholder revolt. And that might happen earlier than six months from now.
Catherine is not complacent@davekarpf it’s time to take it off life support.
Fabien@davekarpf Am genuinely shocked you gave us the TL:DR in the message, thanks!
Got use to the mediocrity where you need to read 3 pages of intro, dismiss 2 ads and 3 newsletter sign up modal before getting to the point.
Got use to the mediocrity where you need to read 3 pages of intro, dismiss 2 ads and 3 newsletter sign up modal before getting to the point.
@davekarpf Still read your brilliant full piece.
"It all would’ve worked out if not for that meddling government." sounds extremely plausible!
"It all would’ve worked out if not for that meddling government." sounds extremely plausible!
prozacchiwawa@davekarpf my money is on the saudis backstopping the debt and gaining control of twitter.
Cosmic Ray@davekarpf interesting article and comments
alexmak@davekarpf what do you think will happen once phony stark declares bankruptcy? is it going to be something like chapter 11, with protection, while helping him to avoid payments? or you think he will fold the company and sell it for scrapes to some PE?
msgbi
Jay States@davekarpf it gets sold or restructured into something profitable, but not what its original user base wants.
@davekarpf Musk will continue his screw ups, advertisers, users and employees will continue to bail, rinse and repeat. Do remember that this has all happen faster than regulators and the various authorities around the globe can respond, but they will.
(っ◔◡◔)っ 𝑱𝑬𝑵𝑺@davekarpf I think they survive however they will never be the same… less users and less diverse… the Twitter era was already over before Elons takeover… to be fair, he bought a sinking ship. But still Twitter it’s too big to completely vanish.
Ted Spence@davekarpf definitely the most coherent end strategy I’ve heard so far
ziggurism@davekarpf aren’t the huge loans coming due as part of the structure of the purchase a third timebomb?
@ziggurism it’s a third major cost, but I think of it differently because it’s well-known and factored in to people’s routine calculations of the company’s liabilities.
(So, basically, yes with an asterisk for rhetorical styling?)
Mar Hicks@davekarpf @mimsical Great post! One of my big concerns is what happens to the user data and user content that remains on the site as it goes into fire-sale mode under brutally incompetent leadership. I think it is going to be pretty scary, and also very instructive… I’m thinking about setting up a sub stack account just to write a post about this. Do you recommend substack from your experiences with it?
Christopher Mims@histoftech @davekarpf I've played with substack, it's well-designed and easy to use
Jon Keegan@histoftech @davekarpf @mimsical
you should check out Ghost as it is a non-profit and employee owned. Less likely to be sold / shut down. Really solid features and less likely to end up in the same situation as Twitter! I am using for my newsletter and very happy with it https://ghost.org/
you should check out Ghost as it is a non-profit and employee owned. Less likely to be sold / shut down. Really solid features and less likely to end up in the same situation as Twitter! I am using for my newsletter and very happy with it https://ghost.org/
@jonkeegan @histoftech @davekarpf these are all great points. substack is very oriented toward generating revenue & is subject to the whims of its investors
@mimsical @histoftech @davekarpf sadly this is the tale of Revue, a great newsletter platform that allowed a no-tracking mode (we used this at @themarkup ). Was bought by Twitter and was shut down 👎🏻. Gotta look hard at the biz models and corporate structure for all platforms I plan on ivesting time and energy in. That’s why I’m over here now on Mastodon too.
Blake Eskin@jonkeegan @mimsical @histoftech @davekarpf @themarkup Substack just published this “broader mission” post that made me think they are not going to make enough money with paid newsletters to satisfying investors so they need to think bigger, this is often where things go awry https://on.substack.com/p/2million
Brian C. Keegan, Ph.D.@jonkeegan @bdeskin @mimsical @histoftech @davekarpf @themarkup And the enshittification cycle begins anew.
@bdeskin @davekarpf @bkeegan @mimsical @histoftech @themarkup ooof. $18mm last year. The crazy thing is that would be a nice healthy business if it weren’t for the crazy VC valuation and the ticking timebomb waiting for the 10x exit
@jonkeegan @histoftech @davekarpf @themarkup this is a *really* good point. tumblr went south there for awhile as well, until a relatively benevolent corporate overlord bought it and seems to have rescued it
@histoftech @mimsical I’ve been very happy with it, yes. It’s basically a blog with a built-in distribution list. It fits that use-case quite well.
I ❤️ Placemaking@histoftech Mar, fwiw, you might like blot.im where you can host your files in a Google drive or Dropbox and it's posted automatically. Good for writers. Ghost is great but involves more contacts management.
Macramé Owl@davekarpf Only if you want functionality.