Chris TrottierMar 1, 2023

Prediction for Twitter's demise:

1. Twitter gets harder to maintain

2. Outages increase from once a week to near daily

3. Elon Musk pronounces that Twitter's old code is a mess that can't be saved, and he promises Twitter 3.0 -- which will be better in all ways from the old Twitter

4. A year later, Twitter 3.0 is released, and it's not like "real" Twitter -- but it's a pay-to-play platform

5. People finally realize "old" Twitter is not coming back, and go elsewhere -- probably to Mastodon

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

Why do I believe Twitter's demise will follow the above playbook?

Because I've seen this happen before.

The most infamous example is Digg.

In that example, Digg's demise meant Reddit's ascendancy.

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

There's three factors at play in Twitter's demise:

1. Unmaintainable code and architecture
2. Pressure to monetize
3. A competitor that can't be copied

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

I bet you that when Twitter 3.0 inevitably gets released, it will come with much fanfare.

At last! Elon Musk is fixing all of Twitter's problems!

They have signed longterm deals with Disney, News Corp, and Hearst!

Omnicom is an excited partner!

...and then people will actually use Twitter 3.0.

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

And why will people hate Twitter 3.0? Why do I know it will be an incredibly awful experience?

As it is, Twitter has been moving to a pay-to-play model for awhile. People have tolerated it because they can still talk to their friends.

With Elon Musk, the movement to pay-to-play has hastened.

But Elon has already burned bridges with advertisers and content producers, and for him to get them back on board he will have to do something drastic 😁

Show threadChris Trottier

When Twitter 3.0 gets released, the entire "For You" page will just be ads, chatbots, and "content".

You won't be seeing your friends.

You will be able to like and share, but your replies will be buried and unseen.

Tweeting will be like speaking into a chasm.

Kind of like how it is now—but more so.

Gradually, people will begin to notice that you can actually talk to your friends on that Mastodon service—so why not go there instead?

Mar 1, 2023 at 8:02pmWeb
Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

Eventually, Twitter 3.0 will resemble a dead mall.

There will still be a few stragglers: SEO folks, camgirls, crypto hucksters, folks looking for the hit of nostalgia.

But after a year, Twitter will be sold to another company. Maybe Comcast.

They'll try to clear the riff raff out, but this will also prove unpopular. The last stragglers leave.

Finally, Twitter gets sold for $2 million to Automattic or someone like them. It becomes a niche site, only visited for nostalgia.

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

Here's the kicker.

I bet that 10 years later, Twitter will announce ActivityPub integration.

The pitch will be nostalgia.

Remember your old friend Twitter? And all those funny memes? Now you can pretend that it's 2012 again!

Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

Meanwhile, your kids will ask you, "What's Twitter? Is that like Blaxogmuffin?"

You'll say to your kids, "Exactly like Blaxogmuffin—but mostly with text."

Your kids will ask, "Could you schnorg on Twitter?"

"No, it was a different time 😢" you'll reply, as you wistfully remember that glorious blue bird—before Twitter 3.0 killed its relevancy for good.

Show threadThird spruce tree on the leftMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet If I had the $ I would totally reserve blaxogmuffin.com *right now.*
Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023

@tezoatlipoca Blaxogmuffin is the future.

At least until Zizzerzazzer comes along.

Show threadКу 🇧🇬🇪🇺 Mar 2, 2023
@atomicpoet @tezoatlipoca to Blaxogmuffin is human, to Zizzerzazzer - divine!
Show threadLaurens HofMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet To miss the point here for a second: Blaxogmuffing and schnorg sounds surprisingly similar to BlurgleFroosh, which is a real clone of a Hubzilla project that someone made.
Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023
@laurenshof That's where you're wrong. Blaxogmuffing is the lewd version of Blaxomuffin 😆
Show threadAdvanced Persistent TeapotMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet and then you'll tell them there was a time when you'd have to wait nearly a minute while your computer did a weird mating ritual dance involving screeching and hissing at another computer before you could do anything on the internet, and nobody else in the house would be able to call their friends at the same time, and they'll look at you in absolute horror
Show threadFripi (DECT 3034)Mar 2, 2023
@http_error_418 @atomicpoet
The horror would be mainly about the fact that you would just call people unannounced at that time...
Show threadabsulitMar 2, 2023
@atomicpoet after reading the whole thread this sounds prophetic. Also I was thinking: "how a Twitter 3.0 when you can't change the API"
So the innards will be the same Twitter, and they will have a shitty interface.
Show threadabsulitAug 25, 2023
@atomicpoet reading this again after the new X interface and name and how they want people to work in their API because they can't fix it themselves. This is amazing.
Show threadMiss KoulaMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet still waiting for your theory about Google's reaction 2 #fedi
Show threadChris TrottierMar 1, 2023
@misskoula Jog my memory. What did I say again?
Show threadMike FraserMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet If Elon called me and made me CEO, re-establishing sane moderation would be my first priority, my second would be integrating Activity Pub.
Show threadMike FraserMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet Also, my 16 year old has never thought Twitter was even remotely relevant. He's always chastised it as social media for old people. So that ship has already sailed.
Show threadDanielMar 1, 2023

@atomicpoet

I love this take. Put me down for Yahoo! trying to reemerge as a player with an acquisition of Twitter, not Comcast. Yahoo! has a proven track record of buying high and selling low.

Show threadrabbleMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet to give automatic credit. My kids were telling me about this cool site they just found: tumblr.
Show threadaburtchMar 2, 2023
@atomicpoet I hate it, but I think you're absolutely right.
Show threadVirtue signal 💉💉💉🇺🇸 🇺🇦Mar 2, 2023

@atomicpoet

My prediction:

There will be too much erasure for birdsite nostalgia to be a thing.

Show threadThird spruce tree on the leftMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet Interesting comment on Digg->Reddit. I've been on Reddit pretty much *since *Digg started sucking, ~2013. Its had its growing pains, and brigading and moderation scandals (basically everything that has been highlighted with recent moderation prompted mastodon instance closures) but so far Reddit seems to have avoided the #enshitification (I mean signal2noise ratio in some subs has fallen off a cliff recently but that's the users). What do you envision for it?
Show threadOopsMar 3, 2023
@tezoatlipoca @atomicpoet it's going public, so doom
Show threadYaoi Box BalloonMar 1, 2023
@atomicpoet Part of the reason I gave up Twitter a damn long time back was because of the chasm effect. Anyone I wanted to engage with had already moved on - we knew death was coming.
Show threadYaoi Box BalloonMar 1, 2023

@atomicpoet AND -get this- it was a marketing community.

The grifters will stay there. The real professionals know it's been long dead.