Anne ApplebaumHas someone written the definitive explanation of why China, which has high tech satellites, internet spyware and access to reams of stolen data, would even need a spy balloon?
DawnTreader@anneapplebaum tradition? Out of box thinking? Low cost?
BenderIsGreat34@anneapplebaum they thought it’d be funny to freak everyone out. And they were right.
@anneapplebaum regardless it's a PR loss for China... whether intentional or not
Mark vW@anneapplebaum Some look at the world and ask "Why?" Others look at the world and ask "Why not?" Why not agitate the conservatives working so hard to weaken this country?
kmetz@anneapplebaum I was speculating for reasons earlier (so not an explanation), 1. satellite paths are very predictable, 2. getting closer, for higher-res radar and optical images (the huge solar arrays on this thing make me think radar could be involved, not much else needs so much electrical power).
@kmetz @anneapplebaum Rayleigh limits make it hard to get good imagery with balloons or aircraft; mirrors are heavy and to outperform LEO satellites you need an awfully big one. SAR, additionally, has its resolution mostly set by radar wavelength vs. the actual altitude of the radar, so there's few advantages to having it fly at a lower altitude.
@kmetz @anneapplebaum My personal guess is that it hosts some sort of atmospheric monitoring payload that's looking for signatures of specific trace gases or particulates, though I have zero evidence for this.
@ckfinite @anneapplebaum I was also thinking of that as a reason to have sensors within the atmosphere.
Doug Bostrom@ckfinite @kmetz @anneapplebaum
Evidence abounds on Google Scholar.
It's the parsimonious explanation.
"Oh darn we forgot to paint our enormous optically obvious balloon with huge radar reflectivity bright orange-- now somebody might not see it."
Nonsense-- the biggest balloon in our airspace.
Melzpetpals@kmetz @anneapplebaum I heard someone on the radio it moves slower than a satellite and can capture a lot of data all at once before the next rotation of the satellite comes around. 🤷♀️
BibbleCo
Fern Woodsson 🌿@anneapplebaum I think it was just a trial balloon to see what happened.
@anneapplebaum specifically, there was an intel meeting and someone said “let’s put up a trial balloon with the Americans about sharing #Russian intelligence in exchange for a deal on #microchips” and someone took the comment waaaaay too seriously.
LOLRH1 
🇺🇲🇺🇦@anneapplebaum because it's a psychological weapon.
Steve Gibson 
@anneapplebaum
I haven’t heard anyone with a definitive explanation. It’s all been speculation — proof of concept? See how long it took for it to be detected? Capture and relay as much SIGINT as possible before it’s taken out? Maybe next time it’ll be 1000 of them with EMP devices dangling underneath. It’s so bizarre that most people knowledgeable in this area seem to be scratching their heads.
I haven’t heard anyone with a definitive explanation. It’s all been speculation — proof of concept? See how long it took for it to be detected? Capture and relay as much SIGINT as possible before it’s taken out? Maybe next time it’ll be 1000 of them with EMP devices dangling underneath. It’s so bizarre that most people knowledgeable in this area seem to be scratching their heads.
@steve @anneapplebaum speculation about directly weaponising them fails the "movie plot threat" test.
@BibbleCo
Ah well… I guess I better stick to my day job
Ah well… I guess I better stick to my day job
@steve ("movie plot threats" is Bruce Schneier's thing he used to run an annual competition, eg https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/06/eighth_movie-pl_1.html )
Reid Simmons@anneapplebaum Ars Technica has an article about it. https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/why-would-the-chinese-government-be-flying-a-large-stratospheric-balloon/
Dotards Anonymous@anneapplebaum China wanted to sour US - China relations and drive a stake through any second thoughts the West may have about denying China access to western technology.
Auntie Mame@dotards @anneapplebaum on the eve of a high level diplomatic meeting? Makes no sense.
Andy KotlarzPerhaps the balloon escaped from Chinese New Year, and made its way across the Pacific over the past couple of weeks?
Grassroots Joe@anneapplebaum
We still don't actually know if it was a military surveillance balloon, do we?
"Everyone" says it was, but was it?
Here's one voice (I know and trust) saying maybe not:
"Nothing about the size or design of this balloon speaks to the idea that it’s designed for surveillance rather than some more benign activity."
Sudhir@anneapplebaum. Anne, in my opinion, A spy Baloon has certain advantages over Satelites. It is maneuverable, can be guided to the targeted destination. It is much slower and can be made to stay longer over targeted area. It's also much cheaper than launching a Satellite.
Thomas Buck 
@anneapplebaum I quite like the idea that its sole purpose is to make the US population in general really angry.
Helchose@tom @anneapplebaum There are a myriad of reasons but for me the general purpose was to see how easily it is to induce political factions to bonk each other over the head about as a diversion for whatever else they're really doing, and we gave them lots more data on that.
Alexander Ruthol@anneapplebaum
The obvious explanation would be signal intelligence. Can't do that from a satellite. Well, not all of it.
I'd recommend shooting down the balloon to see what sensors it's got. That'd tell us what its purpose is.
Matthew Nadler@anneapplebaum didn’t they claim it was a weather balloon? Isn’t it remotely possible they’re telling the truth?
ML2@matthewmuses @anneapplebaum From what I have heard, the main issue with it being a weather balloon is the enormous amount of solar panels on the balloon, which is not normal for weather balloons but not uncommon for spy ones. This article mentions that there are certain advantages to having balloons instead of satellites. It also posits that the balloon’s termination mechanism probably failed and that it wasn’t likely intended to come over to the US.
Str8nger@anneapplebaum perhaps because #Chinesesurveillanceballoon as opposed to more sophisticated tech, has plausible deniability. 🇨🇳 🎈🤷🏻♀️
Mike Smullen@anneapplebaum my guess is that they wanted to see how we’d shoot it down. ABM, etc. Hopefully, we were deliberate in our response by not using our (theoretical) missile shield, and not just feckless.
@anneapplebaum Countries probe one another all the time. Usually it’s a bomber or spy plane though. And they probably didn’t expect it to float over a whole damn continent.
Also the statement “China has high tech satellites” is doing more heavy lifting than their fancy new spy balloon.
Martin NuttyThanks for that basic question. Amusing and sadly disturbing to watch American media consumed by the #balloon shoot down without reference to their satellite capabilities
@anneapplebaum from the Chinese side: "let's throw a piece of bait in the water and see what we can catch. We'll watch from our spy satellites".
VAWeisman@anneapplebaum A distraction?
Tips for Overcomers@anneapplebaum Such is the voice of common sense amid the hysteria.
Bryan W@anneapplebaum If you're an up-and-comer in China you get extra brownie points for doing something that embarrasses the State's rivals. Those behind this stupidity were probably promoted to a Vice Something or Other. 🤫
@anneapplebaum China's way of saying "neener neener" to the US and study our political and cultural reaction to gain intel, which I'm sure they've observed plenty of the last 2 days.
@anneapplebaum Probably for the same reasons why the US continues to operate the U-2 reconnaissance aircraft. Apparently their balloons have flown several missions over the US, and probably elsewhere, in recent years.
Noah Cook@anneapplebaum I assume this was used for domestic spying over central China? It's not like anyone's come up with any better means of interdiction in the past however many millenia the Silk Road has passed through there. No doubt they'll find some new Wile E Coyote contraption soon enough.
John@anneapplebaum Sometimes low-tech can be more effective than high-tech.
@anneapplebaum 100% speculation, but... I was really surprised to find it was at 60k ft when the technology exists to go twice as high (eg: https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/superpressure_balloon.html ). US claims many other such flights Ave happened, all over the world, for several years - but none were spotted with naked eye. Perhaps this one had a fault that kept it at low altitude?
This Side of The Pond@anneapplebaum Since it doesn't make any sense, maybe it actually isn't a spy balloon after all (e.g. domestic surveillance device went astray). Let's see what they'll find from the wreckage.
Austin Godber@anneapplebaum payload weight of a balloon is higher. Cost of a balloon is lower. Altitude of a balloon is lower. You can put a bigger camera closer to the target for lower cost. And get higher resolution photos.
@anneapplebaum now that I reread your post, it seems you might not have been asking why, but “has some one written an article about it”. My bad
TQdemocrat@anneapplebaum ask the GOP
Crispy Gnome Chomsky@anneapplebaum
James Fallows has some ideas that he mulls here: https://fallows.substack.com/p/troubles-in-the-skies-chinese-spy
James Fallows has some ideas that he mulls here: https://fallows.substack.com/p/troubles-in-the-skies-chinese-spy
David FyhrieI believe some low power radio emissions are blocked by the ionosphere, which lies between the ground and any satellite. If I were a spy, I'd want to survey them to discover whether my satellites were picking up all the important signals. I'm spitballing, though. I'm not (in any way) an expert in this arena.