“Layoffs are a social contagion.” This quote is gold. From: https://news.stanford.edu/2022/12/05/explains-recent-tech-layoffs-worried/
What explains recent tech layoffs, and why should we be worried? | Stanford News

As layoffs in the tech sector mount, Stanford Graduate School of Business Professor Jeffrey Pfeffer is worried. Research – by him, and others – has shown that the stress layoffs create takes a devastating toll on behavioral and physical health and increases mortality and morbidity substantially. Layoffs literally kill people, he said.

Stanford News

@peterme This is very true. Not just is it social contagion as an idea, but within a company it spreads shortermitis amongst the people who are left.

Because they have all just been shown by their employer they are expendable. (And, we knew that before too, but we can fool ourselves that *our* managers or team is different only so long.) And so, no longer give a flying fuck about the company's numbers or the intangibles like teamwork that have just been made a lie of.

@reneestephen @peterme I'm 31, and I've been laid off three times already. As such I now assume I have a maximum of three years working for any company, and plan accordingly.

I'll have been working for my current employer for three years as of this March, and I *will* be leaving by then.

@peterme they use this as an opportunity to let lower performers go and signal to Wall Street that they care about margins. Salesforce's 10% is hardly more than usual turnover.
@suldrew @peterme Implying that a company has meaningful ways of determining "low performance"
@peterme This whole article is really good, particularly the point about companies who gain ground while their competitors are in retreat.
@peterme This is so true. My company just did a 10% layoff despite being profitable. The intangible costs in terms of employee morale and productivity are going to vastly outweigh any savings from the layoffs. Especially as they didn't just lay off the lowest performers but also some (highly paid) high performers, so everyone who is left knows that nobody is safe.

@peterme When doing layoffs a company will always try to layoff the lowest performers and least essential employees.

Even so layoffs are always traumatic and result in some of the best employees who can easily find jobs elsewhere leaving afterwards. In a tech company where the employees are one of the most important assets, this always hurts the company.

@mikeca42 @peterme I work in a field where it’s almost impossible to fire anyone. So that makes hiring decisions even more critical. If a company has low performers, they need to hire better, not “fix” the problem with morale-reducing layoffs.

@seano @mikeca42 @peterme

Hiring better is one way to have fewer "low performers".

But how many companies do you see that actually develop their employees into better performers?

"Performance improvement plans" (PIPs) shouldn't be synonymous with remediation.

How about creating a collegial environment that encourages (or even requires) "top performers" to mentor others?

@mikeca42

Please explain "lowest performers."

@emmah @mikeca42 lowest performers: the people who are a thorn in management's side about technical debt that management really really wants to kick down the road hoping to make it someone else's problem. Among others.

@patriciajhawkins @mikeca42

Ah, the people who refuse to ship and make it support or operations' problem.

@emmah

I am now retired but I worked as a software engineer in Silicon Valley for almost 40 years. I was a manager for part of that time. I worked at companies that annually ranked all the engineers into a list from best to worst. Obviously this was subjective.

Although I never worked at one, I knew of companies that annually ranked all employees and then laid off the bottom 5%.

These rankings were done by managers. Obviously, the biases of the managers effect this kind of evaluation.

@peterme
layoffs are a economical disease, as long managers see employees as resource and financial departments as cost factors, which are easy to replace and just part of a business plan, assuming there is a linear relation between problems to solve and humans to allocate to solving, this will not change. (Real intelligence can never be overestimated.)
@peterme Ahhh yes. Capitalism and giving no fucks about employees.
@peterme Read this article. Dude quoted is a moron.
@peterme I love it when folks from Stanford provide their superficial critiques of Silicon Valley. Hello, you’re the Human Resources department for Silicon Valley :)
@peterme I feel many web services have too many developers, and I am one of them. They have too many developers for the number of features and updates that we actually get. Most of the demand for developers is for maintenance issues due to bad engineering practices.
@Stark9837 @peterme Bingo. And they hate hiring older engineers -- "less energy" and they hate hearing about how the project is accumulating tech debt... because they or upper management won't invest up front -- so bye bye. Watched this happen to my partner for five years; he's FINALLY in a job where everybody actually cares, upper management included, because they care about the security and reliability of their giant network of sites. Home Depot, fully remote, startlingly diverse too.

@peterme I think it's more to do with feeding an unsustainable corporate growth engine. It brings in a lot of investor insecurity so a lot of this is a preemptive effort at being "more" fiscally efficient.
https://tenor.com/view/agent-smith-give-me-more-the-matrix-reloaded-gif-13930641

Sounds like a word salad because that is the mental state with which the problem is attempted to be addressed. We are still reptilian emotional animals with fancier logical systems, only to be overridden by our reptilian emotional brain.

Tenor
@peterme The word here is "greed".

@peterme

So it does make sense because it doesn't.

Think of it as a measure to rattle the cage a little, show some cruelty as a deterrent, aimed to be a chilling. This only works if they all do it in sync. Given that it all boils down to if you have part of the staff that increases performance by such behaviour and what happens to the other part; will they yo-yo out and in?

As bad as it is, it is turned from inside hostility to be an outside enemy, it might close the lines even.

@peterme I remember the offshoring contagion. At the LargeCo where I worked, London was actually cheaper than their botched offshoring, but the CEO had promised the analysts so they hollowed out the staff. Our little team was the only one in the whole company successfully shipping features.
@peterme #memetics working in the board room
People are just copying their bubble
@peterme exactly, what I've dicussed with husband as well about this
@peterme @recursive the hiring in the first place was also a form of social contagion
@peterme I've seen this in various sectors, not just tech. It's one of the various ways in which labour productivity growth stalls because it ends up being self-defeating. Less employees work longer hours, which causes productivity losses as people are more tired and turnover increases. It's more virtue signalling than anything else.
@peterme LoL just witness the cognitive dissonance of "we are laying off because the financials aren't good enough" immediately followed by corporate comms around "Post-holiday thank you party", "Congrats on the hard work, we made SO MUCH fucking business this year, never made so much actually". 💀
@peterme I’m grateful you shared this because it’s a hypothesis I had but I didn’t have time to check how real it was.

@peterme So good and unfortunately true. Not only with layoff, but many other actions.

There are some really smart companies that while they may have layoffs in a perceived or perception of a potential down turn, they also start hiring in people to plan for next steps and modernization and improvements. Often a smallish team that frames things for a stepped transformation. This is all driven by top leaders and not related directly to the company, but top leader thinking.

@peterme I think this is the year we can revitalize the economy. I'm tired of waiting for "the powers that be" to do it for us. We can do it ourselves!

But we have to stand together and take bold steps in order to alleviate the stagnation and get folks back to work. Let's stop making excuses and take action!

@rauschma i was literally just thinking about this yesterday, thanks for sharing
@peterme well if companies are wrong in laying off people they will lose against companies that keep their employees.
@peterme I’ve heard so much out there in startupland about how it’s monkey-see-monkey-do, but it’s like the VCs are kindergarten teachers leading the class through some unpleasant but ultimately edifying experience and need all to participate. Forgetting, as they always do, any sort of social impact or that they might have some responsibility to anyone other than the founders they funded.
@peterme Ah, capitalism. Where our livelihoods are simply numbers on a spreadsheet.

We underestimate the extent to which "CEOs" are a community prone to fads, memes, groupthink, and all kinds of herd behaviors.

Looking at a murmuration of birds, it's easy to assume they're collectively executing on a coordinated central plan. But in fact, each individual is a simple agent governed by very simple rule-based interactions with to the ones around it.

@peterme

It would be interesting to see the difference in behavior between employee-owned companies and investor-owner companies and privately-owned companies.

From a very small sample size, I noticed that employee-owned companies or companies with a significant share of owners are employees are less likely to lay off people than other types of companies. And when they do, it is financially necessary to keep the company afloat.
@peterme Having seen this SV social contagion several times, I agree with the premise.
@peterme Another reason. It's difficult to fire underperformers yet companies know when they get large, there are many. So industry wide layoffs provide a cover story to do layoffs. I know from 1st hand experience that one large Redmond tech company used to implement layoffs by requiring every small subgroup to put forth their "bottom 10%" and these would be the ones let go. This let the company avoid legal issues of just firing people and having to document perfectly defensible rational.
@peterme yeah our stocks went up the literal moment the layoffs were announced, the board cares about one thing and one thing alone
@peterme I have long suspected that most of "the economy" is driven by exactly this kind of group think behavior.

@peterme I had the experience with working for the MOTHER of doing layoffs - Boeing. Usually because a phase in a product's development was over, so most of the people were laid off.

I was laid off when my project was over. No effort to find another place of work. I guess I was spoiled by my time at TRW. They had a Monthly (?) paper that listed all of the open positions in the organization. Some of the best jobs I ever had were while working at TRW.

@peterme that is a realization that I came to few months ago as well - it's all a consequence of Tech being a fasion industry where everyone is looking at what everyone else is doing and copying that

@peterme This os exactly right. Profits show they have no reason for layoffs. They do it because it's fashionable. And because of fear of quarterly earnings.

Every recession is the same. We've been on an upswing for a while, people waoting for the downswing. Then the media starts talking about it. At first no one believes the media, but they keep talking about it. Because we've been on the upswing too long, had too much fun, gotten fat.

Then, one big company is the first to chicken out (2022 was Amazon). Then others say, well, if that company did it, they must know something we don't. So they lay off exactly the same amount 2022 is 10%). Then with multiple big companies doing, everyone gets more scared.

Now media is banging on about how they were "right" (ignoring the false predictions of the last so many years). They were right, and it's going to get worse! This news sells! Bad news sells.

Now the entire herd has moved to layoffs, big & small, like so many gazelles.

@peterme thanks for sharing here. Saw your LI post of the article and find it simultaneously mind numbing and mind blowing.

@peterme @djnavarro

"Why are everybody jumping off a cliff but us"

@peterme if a company laid me off I’d fucking walk out

…oh wait
@peterme
The corporate brain worm strikes again
@peterme Yep! This was another timely and excellent article on the topic of layoffs btw: https://hbr.org/2022/12/what-companies-still-get-wrong-about-layoffs
What Companies Still Get Wrong About Layoffs

Research has long shown that layoffs have a detrimental effect on individuals and on corporate performance. The short-term cost savings provided by a layoff are often overshadowed by bad publicity, loss of knowledge, weakened engagement, higher voluntary turnover, and lower innovation — all of which hurt profits in the long run.  To make intelligent and humane staffing decisions in the current economic turmoil, leaders must understand what’s different about today’s larger social landscape. The authors also share strategies for a smarter approach to workforce change.

Harvard Business Review
@peterme Very true - unfortunately I have been involved in too many of those discussions since the 80's.

@peterme

those of us working for big entities are true widgets - easily replaced and forgotten. so sad that they are playing with the lives of so many while still having tons of money

@peterme

Well *there's* a new application of #MimeticTheory !

@peterme
I always found that often "layoffs" were treated as a way of settling personal grudges :) Unfortunately, I have seen that people who really know how to get things done are frequent targets.
@peterme Then so are hires? 🤔

@peterme thanks for sharing the good article!

I found this gem near the end:

"One thing that Lincoln Electric, which is a famous manufacturer of arc welding equipment, did well is instead of laying off 10% of their workforce, they had everybody take a 10% wage cut except for senior management, which took a larger cut. So instead of giving 100% of the pain to 10% of the people, they give 100% of the people 10% of the pain."

I also like the implication that senior management is taking more of the "pain". Not only are they the ones who can probably best afford to take the hit, but they are ultimately those most responsible for the company's situation, so they should take it.

That's how a responsible business should be run.

@peterme

By the way, until shortly before I started working there in 1988, IBM had a "no layoffs" policy.

If/when IBM needed to tighten its belt, it had done so through normal attrition.

I learned this from my boss, who was a 25+ year employee there an also a *great* mentor.