Dmitri Alperovitch

I don’t understand why people expect the offensives in this war to stop just because winter is coming. Both sides are perfectly capable of continuing operations in cold weather. In fact, Russia invaded (and captured the territory they are now losing) in the midst of winter.

IF there is an operational pause, it will be because they need to regroup and rebuild forces, not because the weather is turning

Nov 12, 2022 at 11:30pmWeb
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022
The place to watch now is Donbas. Russia will likely move some of the forces they pulled out of Kherson there to continue their multi-month and so far futile assault on Bakhmut. The Ukrainians will also likely reposition their forces from the south into Donbas. Northern Luhansk oblast is where they can likely make the most progress in the near future
Show threadDarkWebMallCopNov 12, 2022
@dmitri just looking at the map it looks like Tokmak/Melitopol would be pretty decisive
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022
@DarkWebMallCop It would be but you need a lot of forces to take it head on. I doubt the Ukrainians have them right now
Show threadtom4okstateNov 13, 2022
@dmitri @DarkWebMallCop I have no idea if this is credible but for what it is worth.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@tom4okstate @DarkWebMallCop Russia has a lot of artillery on the left bank of the river. And their Air Force is still very active there. I suspect the Ukrainians will be very cautious about moving their highly valuable HIMARS launchers into danger. They might do some hit-and-move strikes at nighttime though
Show threadMike FraserNov 12, 2022
@dmitri IMO the zaporizhzhia region is where the Russians will reenforce. They've long feared a counter offensive to Mariupol and the sea. This would cut off the land bridge and end the war.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@mike They are building a lot of defensive fortifications there. But they also need a win to counteract the “we are losing this war narrative”. Donetsk oblast is the one place they have a chance to grab something right now
Show threadMike FraserNov 13, 2022
@dmitri There's also been a lot of chatter for a long time of the UAF massing some forces there, although that may have been a feint for the Donbas counter attacks.
Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 13, 2022

@dmitri @mike

Thats exactly why I think the Ukrainians will hit Zaporizhzhia and one other location, TBD. The Russians will find it hard to attack if you’re getting defensively pulled two ways.

Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 13, 2022

@dmitri @mike

Looks like the Ukrainians didn’t wait and are doing an amphibious push on the kinburn peninsula.

Show threadMike FraserNov 13, 2022
@seanie @dmitri Wow, that's bold.
Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 13, 2022

@mike @dmitri

Best info i can find on it so far:

https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/1591540601815646208

| osint_east | on Twitter

“Locally, residents (?) are also aware of the impending (or current) operation. Calls for submitting "fresh information on the enemy." Note the post is in Russian, corresponding with regional dialect. https://t.co/ldqO9v4Hw4 7/”

Twitter
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@mike @seanie That peninsula is very narrow. Impossible to defend
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 14, 2022
@mike @seanie Looks like Ukrainians are covering the spit with arty
Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 14, 2022
@dmitri @mike My favorite commentary so far “Ukrainians got zero chill man” 😂.
Show threadnadin brzezinskiNov 13, 2022
@dmitri @kdvncm there is noise of divisions within Russia. We may be getting closer to at least, intermediaries, diplomatic tract. But there is a very real risk of civil war within Russia.
Show threadnadin brzezinskiNov 13, 2022
@dmitri @kdvncm wrote this earlier today…https://t.me/c/1799103592/1912
Show threadKeith 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇮🇪🇺🇦Nov 14, 2022

@Nadinabbott

Is this the correct telegram link? It says I don't have authorization to read that message.

Show threadnadin brzezinskiNov 14, 2022
@kdvncm yes, private channel, sorry
Show threadnadin brzezinskiNov 14, 2022
@kdvncm I tend to apply to join. I also tend to get in, and save I am a fly on the wall
Show threadKeith 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇮🇪🇺🇦Nov 14, 2022

@Nadinabbott

I'm not ready to delve into telegram yet. Don't really trust it either.

Show threadSteve PaeschkeNov 13, 2022
@dmitri Winter is easier than the spring, when General Mud takes over. Some of the largest battles of WWII took place in this same area in the middle of winter.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@spaeschke This war has seen major offensive actions through all four seasons. I don’t think that’s about to change
Show threadCelarsecNov 13, 2022
@dmitri I worry about the additional impact on the local population with colder conditions. Inconsistent supply chain for the Russians will force them to seek shelter and food displacing and harming even more
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@Celarsec It will be a very rough winter for Ukrainian population unfortunately
Show threadCelarsecNov 13, 2022
@dmitri I agree, але ми переможемо, бо ми украінці
Show threadTed Seuss Nov 13, 2022
@dmitri that’s precisely what Machiavelli advised the Prince.
Show threadMatthew RigdonNov 13, 2022

@dmitri It's because the mainstream media in America were constantly saying at the beginning of the war about how no one could fight in the winter in Ukraine because of mud. It was one of their biggest talking points when this started. "Russia has to win this quickly or they'll bog down like everyone in history".

After this week's election, I think we need to ignore the mainstream media in America when they say "History says..."

Show threadJohn QuigginNov 13, 2022
@dmitri Part of the case for the rush to war in Iraq was that it had to be finished before summer made it too hot to fight.
Show threadboojitNov 14, 2022
@dmitri I keep reading about how all this mud in Ukraine will slow everything down for both sides. Overcooked?
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 14, 2022
@boojit Yes. Believe it or not, people still use roads in Ukraine year round, even when it's muddy