Dmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022

I don’t understand why people expect the offensives in this war to stop just because winter is coming. Both sides are perfectly capable of continuing operations in cold weather. In fact, Russia invaded (and captured the territory they are now losing) in the midst of winter.

IF there is an operational pause, it will be because they need to regroup and rebuild forces, not because the weather is turning

Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022
The place to watch now is Donbas. Russia will likely move some of the forces they pulled out of Kherson there to continue their multi-month and so far futile assault on Bakhmut. The Ukrainians will also likely reposition their forces from the south into Donbas. Northern Luhansk oblast is where they can likely make the most progress in the near future
Show threadDarkWebMallCopNov 12, 2022
@dmitri just looking at the map it looks like Tokmak/Melitopol would be pretty decisive
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022
@DarkWebMallCop It would be but you need a lot of forces to take it head on. I doubt the Ukrainians have them right now
Show threadtom4okstateNov 13, 2022
@dmitri @DarkWebMallCop I have no idea if this is credible but for what it is worth.
Show threadDmitri Alperovitch
@tom4okstate @DarkWebMallCop Russia has a lot of artillery on the left bank of the river. And their Air Force is still very active there. I suspect the Ukrainians will be very cautious about moving their highly valuable HIMARS launchers into danger. They might do some hit-and-move strikes at nighttime though
Nov 13, 2022 at 12:14amWeb