Dmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022

I don’t understand why people expect the offensives in this war to stop just because winter is coming. Both sides are perfectly capable of continuing operations in cold weather. In fact, Russia invaded (and captured the territory they are now losing) in the midst of winter.

IF there is an operational pause, it will be because they need to regroup and rebuild forces, not because the weather is turning

Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 12, 2022
The place to watch now is Donbas. Russia will likely move some of the forces they pulled out of Kherson there to continue their multi-month and so far futile assault on Bakhmut. The Ukrainians will also likely reposition their forces from the south into Donbas. Northern Luhansk oblast is where they can likely make the most progress in the near future
Show threadMike FraserNov 12, 2022
@dmitri IMO the zaporizhzhia region is where the Russians will reenforce. They've long feared a counter offensive to Mariupol and the sea. This would cut off the land bridge and end the war.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 13, 2022
@mike They are building a lot of defensive fortifications there. But they also need a win to counteract the “we are losing this war narrative”. Donetsk oblast is the one place they have a chance to grab something right now
Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 13, 2022

@dmitri @mike

Thats exactly why I think the Ukrainians will hit Zaporizhzhia and one other location, TBD. The Russians will find it hard to attack if you’re getting defensively pulled two ways.

Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 13, 2022

@dmitri @mike

Looks like the Ukrainians didn’t wait and are doing an amphibious push on the kinburn peninsula.

Show threadDmitri Alperovitch
@mike @seanie That peninsula is very narrow. Impossible to defend
Nov 13, 2022 at 4:33pmWeb
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 14, 2022
@mike @seanie Looks like Ukrainians are covering the spit with arty
Show threadSeanie Byrne 🦡Nov 14, 2022
@dmitri @mike My favorite commentary so far “Ukrainians got zero chill man” 😂.