Amnesty in Salisbury & South WiltshireAnalysing the Shift in UK Migration Figures: What It Means
Net migration figures halved
December 2025
In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.
On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.
Net migration figure halved
From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).
The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.
Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.
The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:
- Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
- legal assistance at all stages
- Give English language support from day 1
- Give employment support from day one.
They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.
Other notes:
Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.
European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.
Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.
Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.
200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.
Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).
AH
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