sweet_gyokuro1d ago

The carry spread is at the 10th percentile. Bessent's alarm is statistical. Katayama's is political. Between them sits exactly one carry unwind.

Includes reverse-engineered 6-sigma methodology from actual JGB/UST data.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/lifeguard-who-cannot-swim-back/

#CarryTrade #JPY #UST #JGB #Bessent #BOJ #MOF

The Lifeguard Who Cannot Swim Back

Bessent's toolkit is thinning. Katayama's threshold is political. The carry spread sits at the 10th percentile. Between their two alarm bells, the yen carry trade is running out of room.

Gyokuro Time
The Japan Times6d ago
Japan’s 20-year government bond auction on Tuesday drew solid demand as higher yields attracted buyers, easing concerns that rising oil prices and inflation risks would damp appetite. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/17/markets/20-year-bond-sale-strong-demand/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #markets #jgb #bonds
Relief as Japan’s 20-year bond sale draws strong demand despite Gulf crisis

Higher yields attracted buyers, easing concerns that rising oil prices and inflation risks would damp appetite.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesMar 4
Japan Post Insurance plans to sell holdings of lower-yielding government bonds and replace them with higher-yielding debt on expectations for further interest-rate hikes, according to its CEO. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/04/companies/japan-post-insurance-government-bonds/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #japanpostinsurance #jgb #bonds #boj #insurance
Japan Post Insurance to shift to high-yield bonds, CEO says

The life insurer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again as soon as April.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesFeb 24
Amundi is warming to Japanese government bonds for the first time in three decades as Europe’s biggest asset manager joins a growing group of foreign investors taking a long-term bullish view on the nation’s debt. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/24/companies/amundi-jgb/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #amundi #jgb #sanaetakaichi #japaneseeconomy #france #investments #bonds
Amundi goes long on Japanese debt for the first time in decades

The French asset manager, which started out 2026 slightly underweight on Japanese debt in its global portfolio, shifted last week into a slightly overweight position.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesFeb 18
An accounting group is seeking to ease rules on how life insurers in Japan book paper losses on government bonds, treating such bonds held to match long-term policies as held to maturity under certain conditions. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/18/companies/life-insurers-bond-paper-losses/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #jgb #insurance #bonds
Accounting group seeks to ease rules on Japanese insurers' bond losses

Bonds held by life insurers to match long-term policies would be treated as held to maturity if certain conditions are met, and would not be subject to impairment accounting.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesFeb 16
For the first time ever, Jupiter Asset Management’s Mark Nash is placing a long-term, strategic bet that Japanese government bonds will rise. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/16/markets/jupiter-asset-management-jgb-buy/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #markets #jgb #bonds #jupiterassetmanagement #japaneseeconomy #sanaetakaichi
Jupiter’s Nash turns Japan bond convert after Takaichi win

For the first time ever, Jupiter Asset Management’s Mark Nash is placing a long-term, strategic bet that Japanese government bonds will rise.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesFeb 3
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces a crucial markets test in the final run-up to a snap election this weekend where she is hoping a decisive victory will give her a mandate for expansionary fiscal policy. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/02/takaichi-bond-investors-voters/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #sanaetakaichi #bonds #jgb
Takaichi must face bond investors before winning over voters

The finance ministry will auction some ¥700 billion ($4.5 billion) of 30-year government bonds three days before polls open.

The Japan Times
acemaxxJan 27
#JGB
#inflation forecasts generated by the bond market suggest that traders are now assuming that #Japan ’s endemic
#deflation is over. #projected 5y #inflation is almost identical to the US, and has been for some months, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
Yonhap Infomax NewsJan 26
U.S. Treasuries rallied at the long end, flattening the yield curve as JGB stability and easing European supply concerns fueled global bond gains; robust U.S. data and strong 2-year auction demand also supported the market.
#YonhapInfomax
#USTreasuries #YieldCurve #JGB #Bund #AuctionDemand
#Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=102097
[New York Bond Market]Long-End Treasuries Rally, Yield Curve Flattens—JGB Stability Eases European Supply Concerns

U.S. Treasuries rallied at the long end, flattening the yield curve as JGB stability and easing European supply concerns fueled global bond gains; robust U.S. data and strong 2-year auction demand also supported the market.

Yonhap Infomax
acemaxxJan 25

#JGB

#Japan ’s Bond Market: A Reason for Panic?
What a steep long-end curve usually means
https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/japans-bond-market-blessing-or-curse