sweet_gyokuro1d ago

Nippon Life booked ¥500bn in domestic bond losses in H1 FY2025. Same firm posted a record ¥1.01tn in basic profit. Both numbers, same balance sheet.

Headlines call the ¥13tn sector-wide bond losses a crisis. The balance sheets say something else — the first time in thirty years that rolling bonds at 3%-plus beats locked-in liabilities.

New post on the J-curve, Daiichi (8750) and T&D (8795):

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/j-curve-lifer/

#Japan #LifeInsurance #JGB #JICS #EmbeddedValue

The Life Insurers' J-Curve: Why Japan's ¥13 Trillion Bond Losses Hide a Thirty-Year Opportunity

Four firms carry ¥13tn in unrealised bond losses. Headlines call it a crisis. The balance sheets tell a different story – the first time in thirty years that rolling bonds at 3%-plus beats locked-in liabilities.

Gyokuro Time
Yonhap Infomax NewsApr 13
Japanese government bond yields surge to highest level in nearly three decades as 10-year JGB yields climb 5 basis points to 2.44%, marking the strongest level since 1997 amid shifting monetary policy expectations
#YonhapInfomax #Japan10YearYield #JGB #BasisPoints #1997High #BondMarket #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=115131
Japan's 10-Year Yield Rises 5bp to 2.44% - Highest Since 1997

Japanese government bond yields surge to highest level in nearly three decades as 10-year JGB yields climb 5 basis points to 2.44%, marking the strongest level since 1997 amid shifting monetary policy expectations

Yonhap Infomax
sweet_gyokuroApr 10
Japan's ¥122tn budget passed. Media are picking "Takaichi stocks" in defence and chips.
But MHI's engine is gas turbines. TEL sells 85–90% overseas. Murata can't isolate the government's contribution.
Largest outflow? Debt service. The real winner is the financial sector that underwrites it.
https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/budget-beneficiary/
#JapanEquities #Investment #Takaichi #JGB #Banks #Government #FiscalPolicy
Japan's ¥122 Trillion Budget Has a Favourite – and It Isn't Who You Think

Japan’s record ¥122.3 trillion budget passed on 7 April. Domestic media are busy picking ‘Takaichi stocks’ in defence and semiconductors. But the financial statements of the supposed beneficiaries tell a different story – and the budget’s largest single outflow goes not to growth investment but to debt service, enriching the banks and life insurers who underwrite it.

Gyokuro Time
The Japan TimesApr 7
The Japanese bond rout continues, taking 10-year yields to a 27-year high on inflation worries, fiscal concerns and war in the Middle East. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/04/07/economy/bonds-27-years/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #economy #bonds #jgb #boj #inflation #oil
Japanese bond rout continues, taking 10-year yields to a 27-year high

Fiscal worries and inflationary pressures are being made worse by the war in the Middle East and oil shortage concerns.

The Japan Times
sweet_gyokuroMar 30

Somewhere between $250 billion and $4 trillion, a ghost lives. Mimura just invoked "resolute measures" for the first time. USD/JPY breached 160. March 31 is tomorrow.

The carry trade may be dead. The question is whether portfolios are built for 3% or for 10%.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/carry-trade-ghost/

#JPY #CarryTrade #MOF #BOJ #intervention #JGB #macro

The Carry Trade Ghost

Is the yen carry trade already dead, or is $4 trillion in derivative exposure still lurking beneath the surface? With USD/JPY through 160 and MOF signalling on all fronts, the answer determines the amplitude of what comes next.

Gyokuro Time
Yonhap Infomax NewsMar 28
Yen weakness past 160 per dollar intensifies selling pressure on ultra-long Japanese government bonds, with markets watching for potential coordinated FX intervention between Japan and the US as 30-year JGB yields surge 18.18bp amid fiscal concerns and energy inflation risks.
#YonhapInfomax #JapaneseYen #JGB #FXIntervention #MUFG #30YearYield #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=112568
'Yen Weakness, JGB Selling Pressure... Potential for US Coordinated FX Intervention'

Yen weakness past 160 per dollar intensifies selling pressure on ultra-long Japanese government bonds, with markets watching for potential coordinated FX intervention between Japan and the US as 30-year JGB yields surge 18.18bp amid fiscal concerns and energy inflation risks.

Yonhap Infomax
sweet_gyokuroMar 22

The carry spread is at the 10th percentile. Bessent's alarm is statistical. Katayama's is political. Between them sits exactly one carry unwind.

Includes reverse-engineered 6-sigma methodology from actual JGB/UST data.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/lifeguard-who-cannot-swim-back/

#CarryTrade #JPY #UST #JGB #Bessent #BOJ #MOF

The Lifeguard Who Cannot Swim Back

Bessent's toolkit is thinning. Katayama's threshold is political. The carry spread sits at the 10th percentile. Between their two alarm bells, the yen carry trade is running out of room.

Gyokuro Time
The Japan TimesMar 17
Japan’s 20-year government bond auction on Tuesday drew solid demand as higher yields attracted buyers, easing concerns that rising oil prices and inflation risks would damp appetite. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/17/markets/20-year-bond-sale-strong-demand/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #markets #jgb #bonds
Relief as Japan’s 20-year bond sale draws strong demand despite Gulf crisis

Higher yields attracted buyers, easing concerns that rising oil prices and inflation risks would damp appetite.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesMar 4
Japan Post Insurance plans to sell holdings of lower-yielding government bonds and replace them with higher-yielding debt on expectations for further interest-rate hikes, according to its CEO. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/04/companies/japan-post-insurance-government-bonds/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #japanpostinsurance #jgb #bonds #boj #insurance
Japan Post Insurance to shift to high-yield bonds, CEO says

The life insurer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again as soon as April.

The Japan Times
The Japan TimesFeb 24
Amundi is warming to Japanese government bonds for the first time in three decades as Europe’s biggest asset manager joins a growing group of foreign investors taking a long-term bullish view on the nation’s debt. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/24/companies/amundi-jgb/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #amundi #jgb #sanaetakaichi #japaneseeconomy #france #investments #bonds
Amundi goes long on Japanese debt for the first time in decades

The French asset manager, which started out 2026 slightly underweight on Japanese debt in its global portfolio, shifted last week into a slightly overweight position.

The Japan Times