These guys looked at observational values for atmospheric density at the time when the 2 geomagnetic storms occurred in February 2022, and found an increase in oxygen density which the models didn't pick up. So when #Starlink #Spacex lost 38 of the just launched 49 satellites due to the unexpected atmospheric density and drag on the satellites, it wasn't their bad or missing calculations for what happens to their launch plans when a geomagnet storm gets in the way.
It was the models in use at that time which got the actual observed values all wrong.
"SpaceX revealed that the storm-generated atmospheric drag was 50% higher than during the previous launches."
And "daytime Oxygen density in the thermosphere was systematically ∼30% larger than the <model> predicts."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112620

Unfortunately, they don't map the flight paths relative to latitude and also, their observations all come from Northern hemisphere stations. One in Kharkiv, by the way!

So when they look for reasons for the discrepancy between model and observation, they call HungaTonga a "more exotic" explanation.
And then they rule it out because Kharkiv observed similar oxygen increase on December 21, 3 weeks before HungaTona.

I just checked the spread of the water vapour. And H2O hadn't reached Northern latitudes yet at all in February. Here for H2O at different altitudes over latitude 30N which is about the latitude of all SpaceX launch sites.
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/mls_h2o_taperecorder_profile_30N.png
One can see that the cloud only arrived in autumn of 2022.
In contrast, lat. 30S
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/mls_h2o_taperecorder_profile_30S.png
And one for 45N, which is close enough to Kharkiv's latitude in Ukraine
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/mls_h2o_taperecorder_profile_45N.png
I reckon, that observation station in Kharkiv won't have seen any #HungaTonga impact until the start of 2023.

But we don't know where the rocket was aimed at. Maybe it stayed over the equator?
For the equator, a plot with near-current H2O concentration at various altitudes is available
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/h2o_mls.html

FYI, a current h2o plot for 26.1hPa from latitudes 45S to 45N. 26hPa is 22km or 72,179 feet.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/#mlsh2olat

This paper describes some latitudes and orbital paths of that failed swarm https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/32/75/2025/
But the rocket drop isn't mentioned, or I am not seeing it.
Maybe, it doesn't matter anyway because from what they describe, this swarm was trying to cover pole to pole, so would have traversed the equator often and encountered Hunga Tonga's
water cloud.

Interesting.
And what I was actually trying to understand has been explained as well:
air pressure increases during #geomagnetic storms.

#SpaceWeather

@DoomsdaysCW

Oh bugger.
Heard of that Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming this winter.
You know, they always say, it's a rare event?
For example, this paper from 2021 says, they occur once every 22 years.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL093215

Well. Guess what. Antarctic SSW occurred in 2019, 2024, and now.

Is this climate weirding or the #volcano explosion in HungaTonga in January 2022?

#Antarctic #SuddenStratosphericWarming #SSW #climateChange #HungaTonga #AUSWeather #Sydney #Flood

"someone who "professionally lives" in economics like Nate Hagens does, can easily mistake the cumulus cloud of narratives about his pet subject with the real real reality. "

In a way, I would also extend this to climate scientists. Those who juggle with Global Means, you know, who take Global Means as a meaningful yardstick also when it comes to evaluating the local and regional impacts of, let's say, the submarine volcano explosion of #HungaTonga 2022.
The impact on Global Mean Anything was negligible.
But I am convinced for example that, how the stratospheric water vapour affected the #jetstream in Winter 2023 and also 2024, HungaTonga's explosion drowned Northern Germany and the UK. Including drowning winter crops and postponing spring sowing season due to too much rain.
See Jucker et al 2024.

That's an example of where Global Mean Anything is a useless unit. Imagining more extreme and compounding impacts on nature and societies, I often say, 1.5°C is perfectly capable of collapsing our global civilisation – but Global Mean Anything would not show the collapse as so much as a blip.

But some cli-sci well-versed in juggling Global Mean Anything really get their minds clouded with the overarching narrative that their single-minded yardstick were meaningful.
Like the money fixation of former-stock broker Nate Hagens.

@roewoe1

Dieser Artikel? "Monsun setzt Indiens Metropolen zu"
https://orf.at/stories/3395670/
Der ist aber wirklich sehr gut. Finde ich.

Deine Vermutung, dass der starke Regen im Mai in Mumbai und wohl bis runter nach Bangalor dem Klimawandel geschuldet wäre, muss nicht stimmen.

Bangalore hat diesen Mai tatsächlich die höchste monatliche Regensumme seit Aufzeichnungsbeginn 1901 gehabt: 569.7mm
Von Mumbai hab ich keine Daten.
Da Mai ja eigentlich noch gar nicht zum Monsoon gehört, ist das besonders herausragend.

Aber.
Da es keinen Trend gibt, dem Mai 2025 bloß eine Krone aufgesetzt hätte, muss man wohl auch woanders nach Gründen gucken. Und da bietet sich die Vulkanexplosion #HungaTonga im Januar 2022 an, deren Injektion von Wasserdampf in die Stratosphäre nämlich noch immer ihr Unwesen treibt.
Jucker et al 2024 haben das für Temperatur und Regen modelliert https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/17/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml
Die Autoren haben auch einen Prosa-Artikel geschrieben: https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

Die Veränderung im Regen rund um Indien ist für die Jahre 2025-2029 für Juni-August als eine der drei stärksten Veränderungen global modelliert worden.
Ich zähle Mai 2025 zu den Monaten Juni-August – und hab meine Erklärung für diese herausragende Regensumme in Bangalore. Klimawandel nicht nötig.