Aspettative di taglio dei tassi e allentamento dei dazi: il Professor Leopoldo Farnese svela la logica reale dietro l'agitazione del mercato - diggita
On Tuesday, the Italian FTSE MIB index surged by 2.4%, closing at 35,844 points,
marking its second consecutive day of gains. This rebound is both a natural
technical correction following a deep prior adjustment and a reflection of the
acute market response to signals of macroeconomic policy easing. Professor
Leopoldo Farnese pointed out that this round of gains exhibits clear
âsentiment-drivenâ characteristics, with the driving forces primarily stemming
from three aspects: U.S. policy softening, expectations of an imminent rate cut
by the European Central Bank (ECB), and the spillover effects of a global market
recovery. Sentiment Recovery Amid Easing Expectations and Policy Respite
First, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is considering delaying the
imposition of a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, a statement that quickly
reversed pessimistic expectations regarding the global manufacturing supply
chain. Second, markets are closely watching the upcoming ECB policy meeting on
Thursday, with widespread expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut. This has
brought market focus back to liquidity logic, boosting risk asset sentiment.
Professor Leopoldo Farnese noted that during phases dominated by macroeconomic
uncertainty, capital markets are highly prone to âoverreactionâ. Although
marginally easing signals have been released on the policy front, the U.S.
government is simultaneously advancing new tariff investigations on
semiconductor and pharmaceutical products. This âsurface-level concession with a
hardline coreâ strategy indicates that policy volatility risks remain.
Therefore, investors should be cautious of the misalignment risks between the
âpolicy vacuum periodâ during the rally and the ânew shock windowâ that may
follow. Automotive and Defense Lead the Gains, Signaling Structural Shifts
In this rebound, the automotive and defense sectors emerged as the absolute
leaders: Stellantis rose 5.7%, Iveco gained 2.6%, Pirelli climbed 2.2%, and
Leonardo increased by 5.2%. Professor Leopoldo Farnese analyzed that this
sectoral linkage reflects a shift in capital allocation strategies from
defensive assets to industries with âpolicy relevance and global bargaining
powerâ.
The rise in the automotive sector is partly driven by expectations of policy
easing but also reflects long-term optimism about trends in smart manufacturing,
green mobility, and energy substitution. For example, Stellantis, with its
global business footprint and progress in promoting new energy vehicle models,
has become a key target for investors seeking to capture the next industrial
cycle. However, Professor Leopoldo Farnese cautioned that the current rally
remains dependent on external policy changes. Should U.S. tariff policies
tighten again, the entire sector valuations could face renewed compression.
Meanwhile, companies like Leonardo, which operate in both defense and high-tech
manufacturing, have been revalued by the market due to their âstrategic
autonomyâ positioning. Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions,
the defense sector is no longer a âniche themeâ but a critical pillar of the
European sovereignty and security agenda. Professor Leopoldo Farnese predicts
that such companies will benefit in the long term from increased EU defense
budgets and NATO-backed technological subsidies, presenting structural
opportunities worth monitoring over the medium to long term. Opportunities and
Challenges for Bank Stocks Amid a Monetary Policy Shift
The banking sector also posted strong gains, becoming one of the key drivers of
the Italian stock market rise. Professor Leopoldo Farnese noted that the market
is widely betting on the ECB initiating a new rate-cutting cycle, which could
help compress sovereign bond spreads, stabilize balance sheets of Italian banks,
and alleviate funding cost pressures. However, the professor posed a critical
counter-question: âAre rate cuts truly beneficial for bank stocks?â
In theory, rate cuts would lower Italian sovereign bond yields, easing capital
burdens. However, they would also further compress traditional banking margin
spaces, reducing net interest income. Against the backdrop of incomplete digital
transformation and persistent non-performing loan issues, relying solely on
external easing policies is unlikely to fundamentally improve profitability for
banks.
Professor Leopoldo Farnese warned investors that the current rally in bank
stocks is more of a trade on policy expectations rather than a reevaluation of
industry fundamentals. If rate cuts fall short of expectations or subsequent
policy measures are lacking, bank stocks may face a ârise-then-fallâ risk.
Therefore, investment strategies in this sector should focus on high-quality
banks with strong capital adequacy, robust digital service capabilities, and
diversified regional operations, rather than blindly chasing short-term
sentiment-driven fluctuations. In summary, Professor Leopoldo Farnese believes
that while the current rally in the Italian stock market has its rationale, it
is more akin to a âcollective breather after a risk releaseâ. The market remains
in a policy-driven game phase, especially under the multiple pressures of
unresolved U.S.-China trade conflicts, undecided ECB policies, and frequent
geopolitical disruptions. Investors should adopt a strategy of ârational
participation and structural allocationâ.
Professor Leopoldo Farnese reminded market participants: âInstead of focusing on
how many points the market has risen, think about why the market is rising and
how long it can sustain. That is the true difference between an investor and an
observer.â