Le Grand Retour avec @Sonie_couture π₯ Bord de Mer, Salle d'Arcade et Actu βοΈ(ββ‘β)

Le Grand Retour avec @Sonie_couture π₯ Bord de Mer, Salle d'Arcade et Actu βοΈ(ββ‘β)

Good Morning/Afternoon SARS2PAians!!
I hope you are enjoying this GORGEOUS Spring weather πππ
1/2 Update for May 3, 2024!
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State of the Subreddit/Fediverse posts:
There's not much new to report for COVID right now except some closely watched new mutations, so basically TL;DR is that COVID levels are very very low, enjoy it but please keep source control safety always on the backburner.
So. I don't mean to only have this as a once-a-week thing but it's kind of turning into that. I also don't mean to have people waste their time checking in here if I don't post, but I'm always hesitant to call it a once-a-week-thing as COVID is so volatile and mutations can always manifest something very weird in a short amount of time.
I have no idea when info will be available so I'm keeping it a "twice-a-week thing", Monday and Friday but sometimes I just don't have enough info/anything new/time for a Monday, so Friday is always much better for a full post for me.
I hope you continue to find this informative useful and I suuuuuper apologize if you check in and I don't post. π
But even better, go check out the links for yourself and follow people smarter than me for COVID stuff!
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VOCs
Nationally, JN.1 and JN.1.7 still at the top of the leaderboard. FLiRT variants JN.1.4 and KP.2 keeps chipping away at their lead.: https://ibb.co/JqWkBSD
KP.2 seems to be the fastest mover of the whole FLiRT mutation block and the one the virology world is keeping their eyes on.
In PA, we don't have KP.2 showing up on Rajnarayanan's Tableau site so far, whcih is good but we still have quite a few FLiRTs here.: https://ibb.co/vP5yH4G
In NY/NJ, we can see here KP.2 has climbed above all the other FLiRTs, is in 4th place at >8% and is right behind JN.1 now.: https://ibb.co/ZzLcRxJ
The WHO is now looking to JN.1 being the next mutation that will be the base of the newest COVID vaccine.: https://www.who.int/news/item/26-04-2024-statement-on-the-antigen-composition-of-covid-19-vaccines
π΄PLEASE GET VACCINATED if available. Don't be a tuff guy. Go get it.
Upcoming fast variants are KP.3 and JN.1.32π, which are not FLiRTs but very fast. I have them highlighted in teal on the charts as they are both already up to almost 5% of national sequencing.
In PA, we have JN.1.32 in low but measurable amounts at a little over 3% of random sequencing and these two variants wil have to be watched.
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CDC
CDC has stopped requiring reporting COVID hospital admissions, hospital capacity or hospital occupancy data at the beginning of May. π This plus nowhere near enough testing and sequencing makes this....hard to keep up with the virus.
"Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data to HHS through CDCβs National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). CDC encourages ongoing, voluntary reporting of hospitalization data. Data voluntarily reported to NHSN after May 1, 2024, will be available starting May 10, 2024, at COVID Data Tracker Hospitalizations."
"The source of hospital information on the COVID Data Tracker home page will change from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) to COVID-NET. Instead of displaying national counts of new hospital admissions, it will show COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 100,000 people. More information on COVID-Net is available on COVID-NET Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations."
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home π
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Other Pathogens
WastewaterSCAN now has SARS2 as LOW! YEAH!
Also FluB and RSV! Woohoo!
Still HIGH though are FluA, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), parainfluenza, and gastro bugs Noro and Rotavirus.: https://ibb.co/By0g9Xt
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H5N1 follows in second post......
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I hope your spring is healthy and productive! πππ
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VOCs
Nationally, the most concerning variants are, as I posted last week, the FLiRT variants that have specific mutations enabling fast transfer. JN.1.4 and KP.2 are already almost at 10% of variant share but remember the amount of testing and sequencing right now is dismal and it makes everything harder to evaluate.: https://ibb.co/KDt0Bh4
FLiRT variants are highlighted in pink on my screenshot. Expect these to push further and further near the top in the next few weeks (and the CDC NOWCAST confirms this prediction.)
In PA, we still have a few FLiRTs here and you can already see them starting to move toward the top of the variant chart.: https://ibb.co/kc9CQyZ
In NY/NJ, FLiRTs KP.2, JN.1.4, JN.1.16.1, and JN.1.18 already account for ~20% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/TrcS9rW
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Wastewater
The GOOD news is COVID is stil fairly low; we've gone below the higher level of two years ago, and are at the lower level of last year at this time!: https://ibb.co/Q83BR3k
We still must watch to see if the FLiRT crew push this metric upwards.
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CDC
The new hospital admits map has changed. High increases all through Central PA excepting Centre Co. and also over tehre in Mercer Co. Philly and Pitt looking very good!: https://ibb.co/Xp8tCJV
The Inpatient Beds Map looks pretty good, some increases in McKean, Potter, and Cameron counties and also around Somerset and Cambria Cos.: https://ibb.co/fD7JYTf
ICU beds over all showing stability, with lots of counties in Central PA and the old coal region on the decrease! Some increases from Lycoming over to McKean though.: https://ibb.co/jMTdyCT
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NOWCAST
The CDC Nowcast is now including multiple fast-moving FLiRT variants in its tracking: KP.2, KP.1.1, KQ.1, JN.1.18.: https://ibb.co/wBY45FV
According to current estimates, these variants combined account for over a third of illnesses already.
These are moving FAST.
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NonSARS2 Pathogens
More good news: according to WastewaterSCAN, there are now lots of pathogens considered LOW nationally!
Just be warned that they are still showing HIGH in the Northeast, like FluB, which is LOW nationally but regionally still HIGH. Hopefully these numbers will lower even more as the Spring enables more outdoor/well ventilated activity.: https://ibb.co/vYGmTd1
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H5N1
H5N1 particles have been found in dairy milk, and are assumed to be inactivated due to the pasteurization process.
We MUST demand healthy cows, testing and tracking of sick herds, and transparency from the meat and dairy insustries.
This is not necessarily to keep H5N1 out of dairy products.
The more IMMINENT concern than being found in dairy milk is letting this thing percolate until it gains new mutations, whether to infect swine or enable human-to-human transfer.: https://ibb.co/FVbNnky
Some things you can do that are obviously proactive and not panicking about this:
π΄Demand clean feed for cattle and swine.
π΄Demand transparent testing, tracing of cattle illness.
π΄Demand high levels of sampling and sequencing of sick herds.
π΄AVOID raw dairy products. Seriously, people, DO NOT contribute to this thing by consuming raw dairy products, even if your State allows its sale (and Pennsylvania DOES as far as I know!)
π΄Try ultra-pasteurized milk, it's the most common milk sold in European countries.
Here's a nifty guide that compares pasteurized/ultra-pasteurized/UHT (ultra high temperature) methods of treating dairy products:
https://www.britannica.com/technology/pasteurization
π΄Avoid undercooked or rare meats. Meats must be heated to 162 degrees for at least 15 seconds to destroy pathogens like tuberculosis.
π΄Switch to providers that are not battery farms and practice humane farming. This is NOT just to be kind to animals (although that's a huge bonus), it is PRACTICAL and keeping herds not densely packed will lessen disease transmission. So far, H5N1 has a 50% kill rate even in non-bird species and we MUST keep outbreaks of it controlled.
I hope you have a FANTASTIC, well-ventilated, healthy and fun Spring!! πππ
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
It's going to get a bit chilly the next few days , butin spite of that I hope you're haivng a great Spring! πππ
π΄Reminder: If you've built a Corsi-Rosenthal box, you can get lots of seasonal allergy relief by running it! CR boxes have many, many practical uses besides just controlling air particles that carry pathogens.
There was nothing much new to post on Monday plus I had a bunch of family things to handle (and doing this, admittedly takes time) so I apologize again for not posting. But you know the saying "no news is good news" and that defintiely applies to these updates.
I'm going to try and update the link list ASAP.
I hope you still find all this useful and informative. I hope the medical community finds these accurate and reliable.
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VOCs
While we are experiencing a MOST welcome lull in COVID numbers right now, disease modelers are predicting a bump up in numbers at the end of this month.: https://ibb.co/YpnpfMF
This is due to a variant block that have specific mutations. Together they are nicknamed the FLiRT group and are named so because their most important mutations are located at S:F456L and S:R346T within the structure of the pathogen.
π΄Right now FLiRT mutes have an 8% advantage even over JN.1. That's fast.: https://ibb.co/NshJLK6
The most important VOCs out there right now are the variants that have the FLiRT designation, and I've highlighted these mutes on these screenshots in pink.
Remember that there is nowhere near the amount of national testing or sequencing that should be implemented, so it makes trying to predict growth activity more difficult.
Nationally, lots of FLiRT mutations out there. It is unknown whether they are fast enough to cause a wave altogether, but they're fast enough to compete with JN.1 to eventually take over quite a bit of the current leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/S7kCkpH
In PA, we have quite a few FLiRT mutation here but these mutes are in relatively low numbers, so far.: https://ibb.co/bdhJwKv
In NY/NJ, FLiRT mute JN.1.4 already in second place on the leaderboard at over 9% of random sequencing. The other FLiRT variants will undoubtedly catch up.: https://ibb.co/ZBgYP2G
Here you can see FLiRT's innate growth advantage compared to JN variants.: https://ibb.co/3swYQ4r
Here you can see JN.1's innate growth advantage compared to older variants.: https://ibb.co/DfH6j53
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Wastewater
Nationally we're still on the bottom of the lull. This might be the lowest point of the whole year as our numbers ongoing could match 2022/2023, where we had quite a bump up in the middle of the summer (because, reminder: COVID doesn't have a "season", it can bump those numbers up anytime it gets lucky with a new mutation!).: https://ibb.co/3mVzfx9
In PA, wastewater still low pretty much everywhere which is great. MontCo SMASHING it, going way below national levels!!: https://ibb.co/TbrQgk7
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CDC
The counties showing high increase in hospital admits has shifted around. Now the counties with the highest increases are along the NY border and down in the Southwest corner surrounding Greene Co. Adams and York also showing high end increases. Philly corner showing moderate increases.: https://ibb.co/cQRgbwM
The % inpatient beds map looks very good! stable or decreasing everywhere, except some increases in Columbia Co up going Northeast to Wayne Co.: https://ibb.co/Q8JMZvh
Staffed ICU beds in the vast majority of counties steady or going down...except Columbia, Luzerne and Wyoming in the eastern half of the State and Centre, Clearfield and Jefferson in Central PA.: https://ibb.co/5kXgcYR
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Other Pathogens
We're still high in non-SARS2 respiratory pathogens according the WastewaterSCAN. FluA, FluB, and Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) are still HIGH.
Gastro stuff is very high too, Norovirus and Roitavirus.
π΄Keep the air clean, be aware of social contacts and wear a quality respirator in crowds and in places where air filteration is suboptimal. Stay home of you are sick to beat the respiratory stuff.
π΄WASH HANDS with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds to beat Noro and Rota. Rinse off fruits and veg before you eat them. Be aware of food handling safety in the kitchen. Don't send kids to school with this.
Mostly because...Noro and Rota are not only extremely contagious, they're also just...gross. π€’
I hope you have a GREAT and safe Spring!! πππ
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Rotavirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I hope you had a clear and safe view of the eclipse on Tuesday!!! πππ
I hope you also have a great and safe Spring now that warmer weather is finally here! πππ
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VOCs
Nothing much new to report on new variants (which is why I didn't post on Monday...absolutely nothing was updated at all...wastewater, CDC, variants, etc.).
JN.1 and JN.1.4 still at the top of the leaderboard.
The fastest two variants now in the US are JN.1.18 and KP.2 (which is a descendant of JN.1.11.1) and though the two are making gains every update, they don't seem to be near as fast as JN.1 was.: https://ibb.co/zFNhBF7
There are no new imminently concerning variants on the horizon right now.
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Wastewater
National level is still MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN but we're now approaching where we were at this time last year. Still a ways to go to get to LOW levels but at least it isn't going up for now.: https://ibb.co/yR8ttZ1
Wastewater is showing SARS2 actually increasing in the UPark area.:https://ibb.co/K2MWY4G
PLEASE use quality respirators, be aware of social contacts, and KEEP THE AIR CLEAN!
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Other Pathogens
WastewaterSCAN has us at MEDIUM for SARS2 but there's still a LOOOOOT out there that is HIGH.: https://ibb.co/R6R5jDM
FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus(HMPV) and gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still HIGH nationally.
In PA, the highest by far is Noro, but also FluA and FluB is very high.
Wear respirators to control SARS2 and WASH THOSE HANDSIES to control the gastro stuff! π
UPark has got some work to do with pathogen control. Levels are going up/lagging behind on handling SARS2, FluA, FluB, HMPV, Noro.: https://ibb.co/YcvPpJg
Please get a handle of this stuff, UPark.
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H5N1
A condensed version of the current state of H5N1:
H5N1 IS NOT NEW.
So far, the only human cases of contracting H5N1 are through direct contact with infected animals.
So far, scientists are still unsure of how H5N1 affects cattle. THIS IS in fact, NEW.
π΄Cattle cases have been found in 8 states.: https://ibb.co/YcvPpJg
The vast majority are in Texas. 40% of Panhandle cattle have been infected, and that area produces 82% of Texas' milk. This is LOTS of room for new mutations to develop.: https://ibb.co/yFr2Rm1
New Mexico
Idaho
North Carolina
Ohio
Michigan
Kansas
South Dakota.
These states are not in the paths of migratory birds so contaminated FEED is suspected. The feed is contaminated by practices that are LEGAL in the US but BANNED in Canada and Europe....mainly, feeding bird waste to cattle.
π΄ Feed for swine was DEREGULATED in 2018 and MUST be re-regulated to protect swine from H5N1. They are genetically similar to humans and can easily percolate a mutation that spreads to humans.: https://ibb.co/NxdSJm7
π΄ Feed for all farm animals must be regulated and animal waste must be kept out of farm animal food.
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Like COVID, H5N1 has the ability to gain new mutations from new hosts. THIS IS NOT A NEW CONCEPT.
Some things to watch for that are NOT CURRENT but are progressively bad:
--Cattle-to-cattle transmission proven.
--Contaminant-to-swine (pigs) develop.
--Swine-to-Human acquired.
--Human-to-human transmisison proven.
The first three have to somehow happen before the fourth happens. None of these things seem to be imminent but that progression will mirror pathogens like Spanish Flu.
I keep spending a lot of time on this because I cannot stress enough that H5N1 in humans has a 50% kill (case fatality) rate so far. A vaccine does exist for H5N1 for both humans and birds, but the human version is not stored in mass quantities for now.
Some things we can do together to lessen the chances of allowing H5N1 to mutate:
π΄ Lobby for CLEAN animal feed for swine, cattle, and fowl.
π΄ Buy dairy products from smaller, more humane farms. Grass-fed cattle and free-range chicken eggs are more expensive, but better than battery farming products where thousands of animals are squeezed together.
π΄ Buy ultra-pasteurized dairy products (most of our cream is ultra pasteurized anyway).
π΄ Insist that farm birds are vaccinated against H5N1.
π΄ I can't stress enough that farm feed must be HUMANE and REGULATED. This is not political, this is literally to stop a highly pathogenic disease from becoming capable of infecting humans.
Contaminated cattle feed is exactly how the prion infection called Mad Cow Disease begun.
Clean feed and happy farm animals make better, cleaner, and healthier products!
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There are always simple things we can all do to prevent the possibility of dangerous pathogen mutations!
Source control is the most important part to keeping life, learning, and financial loss to a minimum.
I hope you all continue to have a great Spring! πππ
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #KP2 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Rotavirus #H5N1 #HMPV
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!!
I hope you're having an awesome Spring.πππ Hoping for clear weather for everyone in the path of the eclipse on Tuesday!! πππ
1/2
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VOCs
Nationally, JN.1, JN.1.4, and JN.1.7 in the top three usual lead slots.: https://ibb.co/pJmbmTW
But JN.1.18 and KP.2 are moving up rather quickly.
In PA, a mixed bag of non-top-leaderboard variants, but sequencing/sampling is getting abysmally low which means predicions are lessening in reliability.: https://ibb.co/chKkY7W
We MUST make sure enough samples are in the hands of viral geneticists so they can make informed models of virus activity.
Wastewater
Nationally, wastewater SARS2 material continuing to lessen, creating a Spring lull.: https://ibb.co/1R24tHp
In PA, all sheds that report to BIOBOT either match national levels or are on the way there. Bucks a bit high, still has some source control to do and they are well on their way to matching the rest of the sheds.: https://ibb.co/PtjWcky
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CDC:
Wow. Lots of statewide increases in new hospital admits. Looks like either a steep decrease OR a steep increase with very few counties in-between.: https://ibb.co/pz6qsvv
Increases are in the Northwest corner by Erie, Southwest corner by Greene Co., int he center of the State from Franklin/Fulton all up through Centre and over to Jefferson. Pike all the way down through the old coal region to Lancaster experiencing increases across the board.
The Inpatient Bed map looks relatively calm, though, very steady. Hopefully this new wave of hospital admits will not contribute to this....but I dunno.: https://ibb.co/CpyPwHt
ICU use holding rather steafdy throughout PA but substantial increases around Mifflin, Juniata and Huntingdon Cos.: https://ibb.co/M5Jg52b
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Non-SARS2 stuff
RSV has been downgraded to LOW natinally on WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 is still MEDIUM.
Respiratory pathogens FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovrus and Parainfluenza are still HIGH.
Gastro viruses Rotavirus and Norovirus remain HIGH too.
Of these, FluA, FluB and Noro seem to be highest in PA sheds.
Noro is still taking waaaaaaaay off in the Harrisburg area.: https://ibb.co/Qkp0nw8
Same with FluB, going almost vertical near Harrisburg.: https://ibb.co/85vYfkp
FluA levels are still not coming down near UPark.: https://ibb.co/T4ZBVkz
The source control methods for respiratory infections are all the same!
Clean the air.
Wear quality respirators in HIGH level areas and in places where veltilation is poor.
Be aware of social contacts.
The mitigations for Noro mostly depend on mindful handwashing WITH soap and water for 20 seconds. Don't depend on hand sanitizer or gloves to control Noro.
Gloves can be depended on a bit tooooooo much (though yes medically they are beneficial, I'm NOT saying ditch gloves) and do not take the place of handwashing. Noro is very resistant to alcohol.
I'll continue with H5N1 in the follow-up post.
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #JN1_4 #KP2 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro #Rotavirus #H5N1 #HMPV
Update for 4/1/2024!
Good April Morning SARS2PAians!
I hope your spring is healthy. πππ
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VOCs
JN.1 and JN.1.4 stil dominate the leaderboard, but scientists are especially watching a groiup of new mutations including JN.1.18, JN.1.13, KP.2, JN.1.16, and KQ.1.: https://ibb.co/6RvHcZR
Some of these are moving FAST despite the already-very-fast mutations on the landscape.
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Wastewater
We've reached a level of SARS2 material in wastewater low enough to match previous years (2020, 2021.): https://ibb.co/DMyG0k4
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CDC
Quite a lot of counties with new hospital admits, especially the Western half of the State. The Southwest corner by Greene Co and from Centre on over to Erie Co and Jefferson are HIGH on the newest chart.: https://ibb.co/m6KYR0Z
The Inpatient Beds chart looks good except for some increases in Lawrence and around Cameron Cos.: https://ibb.co/SPm1wJt
The ICU bed chart looks very good! Most counties are having decreases! However some increases up by Pike Co and significant increases in Franklin and Fulton Cos.:https://ibb.co/sKdK54P
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Research
Tuberculosis after recovering from COVID-19 is becoming more common.: https://ibb.co/ZxZ7kHY
Reactivation of underlying pathogens is NOT NEW. We know this factually from the chicken pox/shingles pathogen.
Also, measles is known to reset the ENTIRE immune system and bring protection from everything down to zero, potentially leaving reactivation of underlying pathogens, which is by levels of magnitude more complex than the physical disability it can cause and makes it imperative that you **VACCINATE YOUR KIDS**.: https://ibb.co/cbFXrRw
Again: NONE of this is brand new, and COVID19 along with other known pathogens, seems to potentially weaken the immune system enough to reactivate underlying pathogens.
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Non-SARS2 Pathogens
COVID and RSV thankfully have been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "Medium" and "low" respectively.: https://ibb.co/k2SpgLR
However, quite a number of pathogens are still ranking in the HIGH level: FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and the gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still out there.
HMPV often presents with a rash and is related to RSV:
https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/human-metapneumovirus.html
https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/22443-human-metapneumovirus-hmpv
The prevention for all these respiratory diseses is the same!
Be conscious of crowds.
Wear a mask in places with low air filtration.
Keep the air clean!
Stay home if you are sick!
For norovirus and rotavirus, it's important to wash hands with soap and warm water for 20sec.
DO NOT depend on gloves and hand sanitizer to control Norovirus, the particles are very resistant to alcohol.
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H5N1
Nothing above here has scientists sitting up at attention right now except one thing: H5N1 bird flu.
H5N1 has jumped to dairy cattle (after infecting numerous other species such as seals, fox, deer, etc.), has been found in cattle in TX, KS, MI, NM, and now Idaho.: https://ibb.co/1JgGY2v
Before now, almost all transmission was bird-to-other-species. "Cow-to-cow transmission cannot be ruled out" and will be a disaster for the food supply if not controlled.: https://ibb.co/mDKVZ7R
There is resistance amongst dairy farmers in the US and in Europe to get their cattle tested.
The absolute worst case scenario is if it "makes the leap" to pigs. That means, if genetically it mutates (like COVID-19 is doing) to be able to:
---Infect pigs.
---Gain capability of pig-to-pig transmission.
The genetic "leap" from bird to mammals was very large, and will also be the "leap" from cattle to pig.....but the "leap" from pigs and ferrets to humans after that will be really, really small.
This would be the same route the Spanish Flu took 106 years ago: Birds -> pigs -> humans.
It is...really not a good time to consume unpasteurized, raw dairy products.
I'm spending a lot of words on this because so far, this thing has a ****50% kill rate******. That is, 1 out of every 2 people who contract H5N1 will die.
I don't know what else to say. We MUST push for thorough farm testing, biosecurity, and intense transmission research.
Stay safe, I hope you had a GREAT holiday, and don't forget to use some form of source control in your daily adventures! π
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #JN1_4 #KP2 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro #Rotavirus #H5N1 #HMPV