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Mike HoneyHere's the latest variant picture for Queensland.
XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (23%) is dominant, but seems to be in decline.
XBF "Bythos" (14%) is hanging on stubbornly.
The sample volumes seem representative up to March 20.
#COVID19 #Australia #QLD #Brisbane #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBF #Bythos #FK_1 @auscovid19
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pafurijazMaterial editing with #CAD Assistant with the whole assembly organized and with #XBF I can save CAD files with #PBR shading :) and when is needed I can export a #glTF or a #STEP :) #FreeCAD
And after a while I finally organized the model with colors and groups and subgroups with various assemblies, now saving in #STEP and then creating materials in PBR and saving in #XBF format! #FreeCAD #CAD #opencascade
Here's the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant picture for New Zealand:
XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (36%) became dominant in early March.
It's main rival recently has been the resurgent CH.1.1 "Orthrus" (20%). This variant is hanging on impressively in NZ - in other countries where CH.1.1 was strong, it had faded below 10% by mid-February, as XBB.1.5 took over.
Newcomer XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (7%) has been rising steadily.
XBF "Bythos" has faded below 5%.
Recent sample sizes are very solid and recent, up to March 11 (see grey column chart). However the cadence of updates appears to be roughly monthly, unfortunately.
#COVID19 #NZ #XBB_1_5 #CH_1_1 #Orthrus #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion #XBF #Bythos
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Last week a new possible sub-variant of XBF "Bythos" was proposed by Ryan Hisner - characterised by the unusual Spike P621S mutation. The earliest sample reported was from New South Wales, back in October (not shown). Most of the samples globally have been found in South Australia, reporting rapid growth to 12% frequency in mid-February. After very sparse samples elsewhere, the steady growth on consecutive days seems to confirm community spread in South Australia.
I'm searching for those samples here by looking for samples of XBF with the Spike P621S mutation. There are 45 reported globally so far, with a couple in Singapore and 8 in the UK.
In recent days a new variant has been proposed - a recombinant of BR.2.1 "Cerastes" and XBF "Bythos". The earliest sample reported so far was from Victoria, in mid-January. All the samples globally have been found in Australia - covering New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia.
Recombinant variants typically arise when an immune-compromised person is infected with multiple variants at once. The more often that happens, and the longer the co-infection, the more chances of recombinant variants being formed and spreading to the broader population.
As recombinant variants have become more common, they are involved in more of these scenarios. This gives the virus a multiplier in it's constant search to find new, more evasive combinations.
I'm searching for those samples here by looking for samples with the Spike F486P and NS8 S82T mutations. There are 10 so far, rising to around 1.5% frequency for Australia. There's now very limited genomic sequencing data shared from other states besides NSW, so this could be going undetected elsewhere.
#COVID19 #Australia #XBF #Bythos #BR_2_1 #Cerastes @auscovid19
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Here's the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant picture for New Zealand:
The XBF "Bythos" variant has grown steadily to 21%, and is now the dominant individual variant. XBB.1.5 "Kraken" has grown to 10%.
The BA.2.75.* clan variants are led by CH.1.1 "Orthrus" at 16%, followed by child CH.1.1.7 at 14%. BR.2.1 "Cerastes" is at 10%.
The BQ.* and BA.5.* variants continue to fade, down to 5% or less.
Definitely a swarm of variants about, but the trend is towards the recombinant variants with the Spike F486P mutation: XBF and XBB.1.5,
Recent sample sizes are very solid and recent, up to February 6 (see grey column chart).
#COVID19 #NZ #XBF #Bythos #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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Here's the latest variant picture for Singapore:
After a long lull under the XBB.1 "Hippogryph" variant, new variants are vying for dominance in Singapore, launching a new wave.
The leading candidates so far are CH.1.1.1 -a child of "Orthrus" (12%), XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (11%) and XBF "Bythos" (reached 10%, possibly fading).
The fairly strong showing by XBF might help explain why XBB.1.5 has been so slow to take off in Australia, where XBF is dominant.
Recent samples look representative, up to 29 January.
#COVID19 #Singapore #CH_1_1_1 #Orthrus #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBF #Bythos
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Here's the latest variant picture for Australia - the chaotic swarm appears to be resolving with XBF "Bythos" now clearly dominant at 35%, nationally and now in every state. This rapid takeover after the November-December wave implies a heightened re-infection risk for those who caught other variants with very different mutations.
The rest of the swarm is fading slowly but there is still great diversity.
Recent sample sizes are smaller, but the daily sizes look representative up to 11 January (see grey column chart). Representative recent samples have been shared from most states, although samples from other jurisdictions lag NSW and Tasmania by 1-3 weeks, with SA and ACT lagging the most. There's a large gap in the samples from QLD in late-December. Samples have not been shared from the NT for almost a year.