UkraineThe best guarantee that #Russia will not attack #Europe is a well-asrmed #Ukraine .
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tymofiy-mylovanov-1a13112_the-best-guarantee-that-russia-will-not-attack-activity-7422368712134942720-SKbC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAAgPAncBlqjcO0YkAFtEqnjlNYCLn1P_tlU
#Russia_Ukraine_War #Ukrasine_Russia_War #war #RussiaIsATerroristState
The best guarantee that Russia will not attack Europe is a well-armed Ukraine, write Eric Ciaramella and Sophia Besch in Foreign Affairs. Paper guarantees failed in 1994 and that Europe now faces a… | Tymofiy Mylovanov | 40 comments
The best guarantee that Russia will not attack Europe is a well-armed Ukraine, write Eric Ciaramella and Sophia Besch in Foreign Affairs. Paper guarantees failed in 1994 and that Europe now faces a concrete bill: $390bn to keep Ukraine militarily viable through 2029. Europe’s current focus is on ceasefires, monitoring missions, and postwar guarantees. Deterrence begin after with Ukraine’s combat power while the war is still ongoing. A European-led force deployed after a ceasefire would rely on two variables Europe does not control: continued U.S. backing and Russian consent. Both can disappear the moment Moscow decides to test the deal. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum offered Ukraine security assurances in exchange for nuclear weapons. Russia violated it. The guarantors did not fight. Paper guarantees collapsed under russian pressure. Long-term deterrence rests on one factor: Ukraine’s own military strength. That requires multi-year rearmament — ammunition, air defense, training pipelines, intelligence sharing, and industrial-scale weapons production. Estimates put Ukraine’s needs at $390bn for 2026–2029, including $50bn per year to cover the budget deficit. European NATO states would need to raise Ukraine support from 0.2% to 0.4% of GDP. This is a not charity. A militarily weak Ukraine shifts the burden to Europe later, under worse conditions and closer Russian pressure. A strong Ukraine keeps the front line east of NATO territory. | 40 comments on LinkedIn
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