The carry spread is at the 10th percentile. Bessent's alarm is statistical. Katayama's is political. Between them sits exactly one carry unwind.

Includes reverse-engineered 6-sigma methodology from actual JGB/UST data.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/lifeguard-who-cannot-swim-back/

#CarryTrade #JPY #UST #JGB #Bessent #BOJ #MOF

The Lifeguard Who Cannot Swim Back

Bessent's toolkit is thinning. Katayama's threshold is political. The carry spread sits at the 10th percentile. Between their two alarm bells, the yen carry trade is running out of room.

Gyokuro Time