Electric TrikeIt must be tough for #Trump: starting a #war with #Iran, but finding it terribly inconvenient to finish it before collecting a shiny prize from #Netanyahu or sharing a stage with #China’s #XiJinping.
In war, as in peace, timing is everything. With the #globalEconomy #teetering on fears of an uncontrolled #escalation in #attacks on #electricity, #oil and #gas installations in the Gulf, Trump revealed that he was having such “#productive” #conversations with #Tehran that there would be a five-day pause in US strikes on “Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure”.
The trouble is that Mr Trump’s talks may not exist. Tehran denies having them.
If real, they would be a welcome de-escalatory step. They are also an admission that Trump’s threat risked consequences more damaging than its intended target. But it also means that after markets close on Friday, Trump could return to “bombing our little hearts out”.
It is as unsurprising as it is grotesque that the #US #president would speak so lightly of potentially #killing hundreds of #civilians.
Neither is Mr Trump likely to have been telling the truth in claiming “major points of agreement” in talks with Iran, including commitments on nuclear weapons and the reopening of the #straitOfHormuz.
But messages may have been passed, via #Egypt’s foreign minister, between Iran and Trump’s #MiddleEast envoy. Sir #KeirStarmer saying that he was “aware” of talks between Iran and the US only confirms that diplomatic engagement is under way, but its scope and substance remain unclear and contested.
#Uncertainty fragments attention in a moment of crisis. This is important because, quietly offstage, Israel is advancing measures in the #WestBank that shift its #occupation to #annexation. Husam Zomlot, the #Palestinian ambassador to #Britain, wrote in the Economist last week that Israel’s government aimed to “deal a deadly blow to Palestinian statehood under the cover of war”.
This is a serious charge, but it is not unmerited. The process seems to have begun in February. The #Israeli cabinet approved land registration in roughly half the West Bank, for the first time since 1967. Converting land into recognised legal property within Israel’s civilian system would mean large-scale dispossession of #Palestinians. Peace Now, an Israeli liberal advocacy organisation, was not wrong in saying that this was illegal under #internationalLaw.
In recent days, settlers have been reported to have imposed a #reignOfTerror in the West Bank, with Israeli forces looking the other way. The Guardian reported apparently coordinated settler attacks across Palestinian #villages, including #arson and violent #assaults. This, when the world is looking elsewhere. But the thrust of successive Israeli governments is to lock in favourable outcomes before the wind changes.
If Israeli leaders perceive future US support as less certain, with many #Americans on the left and right wondering about the cost of the alliance, there is an incentive to consolidate territorial control. That might explain the moves to occupy parts of southern #Lebanon and #Syria. Trump has threatened to return to war if Tehran does not make a deal. The likelier reality is more prosaic: indirect or mediated contacts, not a meaningful negotiation. Meanwhile, America’s partner against Iran, Mr Netanyahu, is able – in the run-up to an election – to entrench changes that are difficult to reverse, under cover of war. #uspol #auspol #NeverTrustTrump #TrumpRegime
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