What happens when the world’s breadbaskets start failing simultaneously?
Multiple breadbasket failures are becoming more likely as climate change increases the chance of simultaneous stress across major producing regions. The danger is no longer only a bad harvest in one place. It is the possibility that several of the regions the world depends on for staple crops could come under pressure at once.
New paper is out!
We identified the worst crop shock every country experienced since 1961: the global average was −29%, with Botswana even losing 80% in a single year. Climate—especially drought—was the leading cause, although conflict is also a major contributor to crop failures. We can also see that the frequency of climate-driven shocks has doubled since the 1960s.
You can find the whole paper here: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/151/2026/esd-17-151-2026.html
In the map below you can see the global distribution of the most severe shocks.
#Agriculture #CropFailure #Famine #Climate #Drought #conflict
Original open access article
Hultgren et al. Nature 642, 644–652 (18 June 2025).
Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w
#food #foodsecurity #cropfailure #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather
#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #food #foodsecurity #cropfailure
"3 C above preindustrial, everybody on the planet will just have to skip breakfast..."
(40% global crop failure is predicted in 2025 by extreme weather alone, food waste adds up to another 40%. If nothing else, STOP food waste!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evhZ1L2zfyE
#ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather
#FYI #JustStopOil #CropFailure
"We're talking about Crop Failure in 2030"
(erm ... no. Not really. We are talking about crop failure RIGHT NOW.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTTsgsxNkyc
#climate #ClimateScience #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #ExtremeWeather #EcosystemCollapse #ecocide #fossilfuels #Co2 #Co2Emissions #methane #GreenhouseGases #KeepinInTheGround
I don't even see mention of food insecurity here.
When that hits, it will add a whole extra dimension to this problem.
I feel like we're not preparing it all for that either.
And while long-term it's difficult to prepare for overall less growability caused by climate, the short-term shock of intermittent unavailability, which is probably what we'll see first, could at least be lessened by proper planning, giving us a better ability to have a public discussion before there is simply outright panic.
#FoodInsecurity #food #famine #Climate #ClimateCrisis #heat #ExtremeHeat #CropFailure #farming
I'm wrongly relieved,
More each day crops haven't failed.
Not harvest time yet.
#haiku #senryu #poem #ShortPoem #SmallPoem #food #FoodInsecurity #CropFailure #CropHarvesting #harvest #famine #intuitions #FoodSupply
Earlier, hotter.
"Just an odd summer", we shrug
—until crops can't grow.
#haiku #poem #ShortPoem #Climate #ClimateCrisis #ClimateDenial #Food #FoodSecurity #CropFailure #Drought #HeatDome
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