#lfs #employment #canada #provinces #202409 –Employment is up +0.2% on the month (47,000) with gains concentrated in ON and QC.
The top left (1) chart shows weakness in Western Canada. There has been a nice uptick in the QC employment aggregate (p93). However, QC trend growth is slow well below the national average (t op right #4). There is a definite downturn in the BC trend. Services employment growth in ON is relatively balanced (p94).
https://www.jacobsonconsulting.com/jci_site/index.php/downloads-2/labour-force-charts-data-ending-2024-09/viewdocument/577

#merchandise #exports #imports #canada - The bottom left (#3) key chart shows the nominal import deficit with imports rising (0.3%) and exports falling (1.0%). The real issues are the broad flattish trends in both. The economy is going nowhere. More importantly, the chart highlights the dominant position of the US economy in our trade and output. Mercantilism is rearing its very ugly head south of the board in ways that can only damage Canada.
https://www.jacobsonconsulting.com/jci_site/index.php/downloads-2/merchandise-trade-through-2024-08/viewdocument/576

The Laffer Curve was always a red flag for my mentor Mike McCracken. This article refreshes the debate.
https://www.socialeurope.eu/after-the-laffer-curve-taxing-the-rich-at-last

#gdp #canada #202402 – Aggregate GDP grew by 0.2% (0.15% Laspeyres) which is back down to trend. The index chart (top right) shows a weak ongoing story. Services, both business and non-business have driven our world. Note the strike blip in the upper purple line. The business services index breakout (row 2 right) shows the continued recovery in the transportation and warehousing aggregate. Note that professional services, a bigger sector [54], has flattened. https://www.jacobsonconsulting.com/jci_site/index.php/downloads-2/gdp-by-industry-through-2024-02/viewdocument/548

This free substack discusses some issues with the comparison of countries and the measurement of GDP. Conclusions are not as obvious or straightforward as some claim.
https://pauljacobson.substack.com/p/country-comparisons-of-gdp

#CPI #PREP #Services - This links to a free substack on the relationship between domestic wages and the CPI services. The highlight is that domestic wages are much less important than the talking heads make out. Even for restaurants, labor costs make up less than 40% of the cost of doing business. The prices of other categories such as insurance and property taxes are not likely going to be productively modified by monetary policy tightness.
https://open.substack.com/pub/pauljacobson/p/domestic-wages-and-cpi-services?r=d6s72&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

#cpi #canada #provinces #inflation #202402 – Inflation is down but there are lots of caveats with starting points and other factors. Excluding mortgage interest, the aggregate CPI has had an absolute decline of -0.4% for the last 2 months (top left).
Gas prices (affects many) bounced up but starting points matter.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-jacobson-jciconsult_cpi-canada-provinces-activity-7175856850666418177-h3ur

#cpi #canada #4d2401 Inflation is slowing from supply effects (foreign prices)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-jacobson-jciconsult_cpi-canada-provinces-activity-7165726639312547841-69gQ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop